The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook

1. The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook Matt Hourihan February 5, 2014 for the Society of Research Administrators International AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

4. *Keep in mind… • Department of Defense development activities have declined more than everything else

7. Recent R&D Budget History • R&D down by 8.4 percent between FY10 and FY12 • August 2011: Budget Control Act • AAAS estimated ~$50 billion R&D cuts in first 5 years • January 2013: American Taxpayer Relief Act • FY 2013: Sequester cuts nearly $10 billion more • Summer 2013: Appropriators operate under two different spending baselines • December 2013 budget deal: 50% sequester rollback for FY14

9. Department of Defense • DOD R&D cut, but not to S&T programs • Basic research at all-time high • Nanotechnology, materials science • DARPA: small from FY12 • Medical research BIG increase

10. NIH • Continuing stagnation • Most institutes about halfway between sequester and FY12 • Largest increases: National Institute on Aging, NCATS • Translational medicine, Alzheimer’s research, BRAIN Initiative, National Children’s Study • Success rates down to 16.8 percent in FY13

11. Department of Energy • Generally good news • Science: much closer to Senate mark • Advanced Computing and Fusion (especially domestic research) • Energy Frontier Research Centers at $100 million • Clean energy programs (EERE, ARPA-E) avoid the guillotine • NNSA R&D also picked up significant funding • DOE R&D at all-time high

12. NASA • Positive outcomes for Science, Exploration • Planetary Science avoids deeper cuts; Europa Mission? • Largest increase for Webb Telescope • Skepticism toward asteroid mission • Clear commitment to next-generation flights systems, also commercial spaceflight • Aeronautics, Space Tech flat

13. National Science Foundation • Lower number than other agencies, about even with FY12 • Appropriator support for ocean research, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing R&D, neuroscience • Social Sciences research restrictions lifted • Large Synoptic Survey Telescope to commence construction • Likely to fall short of COMPETES Act doubling target

14. USDA • Another good outcome • Intramural R&D: Request matched • Minus poultry research center • Extramural R&D: closer to Dems than GOP • Big boost for AFRI • Forest Service dodges cuts • Farm Bill establishes ag research foundation

15. Other notes • Environmental agencies (EPA, USGS) come up short • DHS got (mostly) what it wanted • NIST not looking bad • Patient outcomes research (via Obamacare) not funded

16. TOTAL

17. GDP

18. Looking ahead… • President’s budget to be released March 4, for now • Priorities: manufacturing, clean energy, climate, IT and computing, biological innovation, neuroscience, STEM Ed • Discretionary spending limit in FY 2015 has already been agreed • And will increase hardly at all • 25% of sequester reductions rolled back • Big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged • Beyond FY 2015: back to sequester levels

19. Current Politics: The “Pong” Model? Cut spending! Raise revenues! Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…! The science and innovation budget

20. For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 www.aaas.org/spp/rd/