Brittany Goldrick Population, Health

1. Brittany GoldrickPopulation, Health  Annual Editions # 27   Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s By: Neil Howe and Richard Jackson

2. Global Aging • By 2020, demographic trends threaten widespread disruption • The developed world has been aging, due to falling birthrates and rising life expectancy • According to the United Nations Population Division- there will be more people in their 70s then in their 20s by 2030 • European nations are on track to lose nearly ½ of their total current populations by the end of the century

3. The working-age population has already begun to contract in several large developed countries, including Germany, and Japan • Rising healthcare costs will place a large burden on the government • China, will face a massive age wave, that could slow economic growth and participate political crisis just as it is taking over America as the world’s leading economic power

4. Graying Economies • Even at full employment, GDP growth could stagnate or decline • The number of workers may fall faster then production rises • Global Entrepreneurship Monitor’s 2007 survey of 53 countries, new business start-ups in high-income countries are heavily from the young community • Old age benefits systems could average an extra 7% of GDP to government budget by 2030

5. Diminished Stature • We may see a ride in cartel behavior to protect market share • The rapid growth in ethnic and religious minority populations, could strain civic cohesion and foster a new diaspora politics • The demand for low-wage labor, immigration at its current rate by 2030 could double the % of Muslims in France, and triple in Germany • Many large European cities may be a majority of Muslims

6. Diminished Stature Continued.. • America is also graying, but at a slower pace • The United States is the only developed nation where fertility is at or above the replacement rate of 2.1 average lifetime births per woman • The challenge facing America in the 2020s will be the inability of the other developed nations to lend much needed assistance

7. Perilous Transitions • Since 1975, the average fertility rate in developing nations has dropped from 5.1-2.7 children per woman • In many of the poorest and least stable countries (especially in the sub-saharan Africa) the demographic transition has failed to gain traction, leaving countries with large bulge youth groups • The demographic transition can trigger a rise in extremism • International terrorism in developing nations is positively correlated with income, education, and urbanization

8. Storm Ahead • China may be the first country to grow old before growing rich, due to their 1 child per couple policy • Imagine workforce growth slowing to zero while millions of elders go without healthcare, or pensions • China could move towards a social collapse • Russia’s prime minister stated, “ the most acute problem facing our country today is our demographic implosion”

9. Storm Ahead Continued… • Sub-Saharan Africa, which has the world’s highest fertility rates and is also ravaged by AIDS, it will still be struggling with large youth bulges • If the correlation between extreme youth and violence endures, chronic unrest and state failure could continue throughout much of the sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Muslim world through 2020 or longer if the fertility rates fail to drop • One country is close to chaos, while another aspires to regional hegemony

10. Pax Americana Redux? • During the Industrial revolution, the world grew faster then the rest of the worlds population, peaking at 25% of the world total in 1930 • It is projected to decline still further, to 10% by 2050 • According to the Carnegie Projections, the US share of total GDP will drop significantly, from 34% in 2009, to 24% in 2050 • By 2050, only one developed country will remain, the US, still in third place • We are moving into a US role in a world that will need America more, not less