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Economic Indicators for Florida – An Update

Economic Indicators for Florida – An Update. Christopher McCarty University of Florida Survey Research Center Bureau of Economic and Business Research LEARN Conference, Atlanta, Georgia March 29, 2010. Acknowledgments. Stan Smith Bureau of Economic and Business Research Amy Baker

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Economic Indicators for Florida – An Update

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  1. Economic Indicators for Florida – An Update Christopher McCarty University of Florida Survey Research Center Bureau of Economic and Business Research LEARN Conference, Atlanta, Georgia March 29, 2010

  2. Acknowledgments • Stan Smith • Bureau of Economic and Business Research • Amy Baker • Office of Economic and Demographic Research, The Florida Legislature • Rebecca Rust • Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation

  3. Indicators • Consumer confidence • Employment • Housing • Population

  4. Consumer Confidence

  5. What is Consumer Confidence? • Survey-based measure • Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan • 500 completed RDD telephone interviews • Preliminary release second Friday, final release last Friday • Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board • Approximately 3,500 completed mail out surveys • Release last Tuesday

  6. Comparison of Indexes

  7. Comparison of U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence

  8. Comparison of Florida and U.S. Consumer Sentiment

  9. Comparison of Florida (UFSRC) to U.S. (Conference Board)

  10. Employment

  11. Long term unemployment(Unemployed but still looking for >26 weeks)

  12. Housing

  13. Median prices for Florida peaked at $257,800 in June 2006 • Prices have fallen 49 percent from peak and are now $131,300 • Previous lower median price was $130,900 in January 2010, then $128,900 in January 2002 Source: Florida Association of Realtors

  14. Source: Florida Association of Realtors

  15. Median Existing Home Price Change from Peak by Florida MSA Source: Florida Association of Realtors

  16. Population

  17. Can Florida rely on population growth as the main economic driver? • Why it should • Population growth has always returned in the past • Even if growth is not as robust as it has been, a modest increase will still be a large increase • The Baby Boomers will still be inclined to move to warmer climates. Other popular destinations, such as North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, face similar problems as Florida • Why it might not • There could be a change in behavior where retirees stay put • Florida has a large supply of single family homes and condominiums that, along with declining home ownership, may stall growth in construction even if population growth returns • Other sectors such as agriculture face serious challenges that may put more pressure on already weak economic sectors

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