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Ira Leifer 1,2 , Natalia Shakhova 3 , Igor Semiletov 3 , Chris Stubbs 4

Ira Leifer 1,2 , Natalia Shakhova 3 , Igor Semiletov 3 , Chris Stubbs 4. The Importance of Wind History to Seep Emissions: Large Transient Releases in the ESAS and Marine Methane Emissions. 1 Bubbleology Research International 2 University of California, Santa Barbara

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Ira Leifer 1,2 , Natalia Shakhova 3 , Igor Semiletov 3 , Chris Stubbs 4

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  1. Ira Leifer1,2, Natalia Shakhova3, Igor Semiletov3, Chris Stubbs4 The Importance of Wind History to SeepEmissions: Large Transient Releases in theESAS and Marine Methane Emissions 1Bubbleology Research International 2University of California, Santa Barbara 3University of Alaska Fairbanks 4Terrasond, Ltd. Pergamon Meeting, Ghent, Belgium, Nov. 6, 2012

  2. NOAA NURP NSF Arctic Thanks to:

  3. Overview • Theory • Study Area • Data • Conclusions

  4. Arctic Oceans and ESAS

  5. East Siberian Arctic Sea

  6. Lena River Watershed

  7. Lena River Watershed

  8. ESAS Sonar Track SubBlock

  9. Density Classes (d1-d6)

  10. Intensity Classes (i1-i4)

  11. Major Flow Lab 0.26 L/s (8.4 x 10-4Mscf/dy)

  12. Intermediate – Major Flow Lab 0.21 L/s (6.8 x 10-4Mscf/dy)

  13. Lab Intermediate Flow 0.108 L/s (3.5 x 10-4Mscf/dy) 0.153 L/s (4.9 x 10-4Mscf/dy)

  14. Intermediate – Minor Flow Lab 0.036 L/s (1.2 x 10-4Mscf/dy) 0.043 L/s (1.4 x 10-4Mscf/dy) 0.054 L/s (1.7 x 10-4Mscf/dy)

  15. Lab Minor Flow | | | | 0.0080 L/s (2.5 x 10-5Mscf/dy) 0.022 L/s (7.1 x 10-5Mscf/dy)

  16. Seepage preferentially at river mouths

  17. Study Area (hot spot)

  18. Adding the Seepage up Preliminary

  19. Sonar Responds to Bubble Flux …and bubble density i.e.,sonar return quasi-quantitative

  20. Total Seepage Range 100-600 mg/m2/day

  21. Seepage hotspots correlate with CH4 hotspots

  22. Vertical methane profile Preliminary

  23. So what happens when a storm hits a hotspot area? Preliminary … … goodbye methane

  24. Inventory Recharge Quantifies (conservatively)the Emission Flux to the Water Column To water column: 45 mg/m2/day Modeling Recharge Inventory Quantifies (conservatively) Emission Flux to Atmosphere To water column: 100 mg/m2/day for no winds To water column: >103 mg/m2/day for 2.5 m/s winds Preliminary

  25. Upscaling to entire ESAS (hotspots)

  26. Hotspots are a widespread phenomena Preliminary

  27. Hotspots are a widespread phenomena Preliminary

  28. Upscale Estimate(Storms+bubbles+sea air xchange) 10% ESAS contains “hotspots” Preliminary 8 Tg/yr + 9 Tg/yr = 17 Tg/yr

  29. Conclusions • Wind history is important • Bubble ebullition in the ESAS is widespread and is an important source • Storms can provide a unique opportunity to quantify fluxes

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