“A Quality of Life Initiative for the Shenandoah Valley” Report to the Region

1. “A Quality of Life Initiative for the Shenandoah Valley”Report to the Region Chris Anderson, Chair Local Government Committee May 15, 2007

2. Brief History • 2002 Non-attainment – Winchester – Frederick County – 8 hour Ozone 03 • 2003 Winchester-Frederick - Early Action Compact • 2003-4 SHENAIR proposal for regional approach along lines of Water Policy Committee through NSVRC • Funding proposal developed and accepted by Congressional Delegation • Local Government Committee organized under Regional Commission • James Madison University contracts to host SHENAIR Institute and work with other Universities on research design. • 2005 Phase I - NOAA Program funds - $ 712,500 • 2006 Phase II – NOAA Program funds - $1,662,500 • 2009 Phase III – Request to be based on Science Plan

3. Local Government Committee Mission Statement The Committee seeks to obtain timely, accurate, scientific and other data relative to air quality issues in our air shed. Operating in a cooperative manner, member governments will use this data to make economic development and other policy decisions that will strengthen our economic future while maintaining, or improving air quality, water quality, and other natural systems.

4. Overview • VA Tech – Shenandoah Valley Air Quality – Ozone or 03 and PM 2.5 – Particulate Matter in microns. There are 25,400 microns per inch. • UVA – Back Trajectories and Atmospheric Influence on Respiratory Illness Alert System (AIRIAS) • JMU – PM Forecasting, Idling Reduction, EMS and ICLEI • Local Government Committee

5. VA Tech – Air Quality and Emissions • Air Quality: O3 and PM2.5 have been problematic. • O3 has exceeded the standard in nearly every year since 1980 except 2005 and 2006. • PM2.5 exceeded the standard in 2005 and remains at the borderline. • Emissions: for most pollutants, the Shenandoah region emitted roughly the same amount of pollutants per capita and per area compared to the entire states of West Virginia and Virginia except for SO2 and NH3. • SO2 emissions were very low, less than 3% of the two states’ total, and conversely ammonia emissions were very high, nearly 30% of the total. • The relatively low SO2 emissions are due to the absence of coal-burning power plants in the Shenandoah Valley, and the high ammonia emissions are likely due to the relatively high prevalence of agriculture in the Shenandoah region. • LGC Take-away: Air Quality in the Valley is on the borderline. Depending on location and the season, air quality will be OK or may violate the standards. Therefore, what we do locally makes a difference and will continue to do so.

6. UVA – Back Trajectory Analysis • Back Trajectory analyses (where external air is coming from) identify significant differences in ozone levels depending on classification (moist, dry, polar, tropical, etc.), and direction of the flow. Also, the analyses show significant differences between the Northern (Martinsburg) and Southern (Roanoke) parts of the Greater Valley. It supports the expectation that external factors contribute to air quality issues. Moist Tropical Dry Polar

7. UVA – Respiratory Illness and Air Quality • Atmospheric Influence on Respiratory Illness Alert System (AIRIAS) is nearing prototype testing by UVA. • It is a bio-meteorological model to predict days when individuals with environmentally-related, chronic respiratory diseases may be affected. • AIRIAS is the first model of its kind to link external environmental factors related to weather to respiratory disease cases.

8. JMU – Particulate Matter - PM • NOAA’s Forecast Model for PM 2.5 was evaluated for the Shenandoah Valley. • There was significant variability between the guidance and monitored concentrations of PM2.5 for the time period considered. • The model sometimes under-predicted or over-predicted the monitored data by 30 µg/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter) or more. • PM 2.5 concentrations at all sites were under-predicted by the model in summer 2007, and over-predicted in fall 2007. • Consultations will be held with NOAA modelers to determine why these differences exist.

9. JMU – Engine Idling and EMS Response • Examined strategies for coping with engine idling for long haul trucks including engine idling, electrified parking spaces, auxiliary power units, and several combinations of these. • Potential exists for equivalent of 2.8 hours of engine idling in Virginia for each long haul truck using I-81 • There is no clear winner, and the choice depends on various factors, including climatic situations Software for an emissions inventory & forecast • EMS Decision Support based on Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) and Consequence Assessment Tool Set (CATS) was tested. Though useful, it was determined not to be practical to maintain long term.

10. JMU – ICLEI Local Communities for Sustainability • Software for an emissions inventory & forecast • Enables goal-setting for emissions reduction and energy cost savings in development and implementation of a local plan • Sets out regular monitoring to determine the effectiveness of the plan • Assessment for Roanoke completed • Frederick County and Winchester are on track for similar assessments.

11. Local Government Committee - Mission Statement: strengthen our economic future • The SHENAIR Local Government Committee has developed the idea of the region as a Science Valley in order to better understand the relationships between air, water, land and the built environment. • It joined with the Regional Water Resources Policy Committee to have the Shenandoah Valley Natural Systems Science Symposium as a means of developing a Science Plan for increasing our knowledge and understanding. • Today we sponsored the workshop: “Quality of Life/Air Quality - Shenandoah Valley - Affordable Green Strategies for Counties, Cities and Towns” • The question asked at the end was: “ Should the Local Government Committee consider adding a “Green Valley” component to its mission in support and recognition of the efforts of local governments? • The answer was Yes. The Committee will work with the Commission as offered by Chris Price, Executive Director.

12. Local Government Committee – Future Watch • Since summer drought provides conditions for ground-level Ozone production air and water planning have converged around common needs for better scientific understanding of the region. • Big Meadows was taken off the ozone non-compliance list, but there have been three exceedance days so far this year. Ozone levels at Big Meadows are something to watch because they are indicators of transport to the Valley. • Winchester/Frederick is scheduled to be taken off the Ozone noncompliance list after the 2008 Ozone season ends in October. • Particulate Matter - PM 2.5 remains a problem in the Panhandle. EPA standards could change to a smaller size threshold and cause it to be an issue.

13. In conclusion • We can conclude Valley AIRNow and the Clean Air Connection have been successful for ozone. • The Local Government Committee wants to recognize at this time Patrick Barker for Valley AIRNow and Mike Ball for the Clean Air Connection.