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Inside/Outside: 60 Years of Chinese Politics HKUST: 20-21 August 2009

Inside/Outside: 60 Years of Chinese Politics HKUST: 20-21 August 2009 Beijing and the Myanmar Problem Ian Holliday. Introduction. Rising China: what to do about Myanmar? Intervention Arguing about intervention Arguing about intervention in Myanmar Chinese intervention in Myanmar

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Inside/Outside: 60 Years of Chinese Politics HKUST: 20-21 August 2009

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  1. Inside/Outside: 60 Years of Chinese Politics HKUST: 20-21 August 2009 Beijing and the Myanmar Problem Ian Holliday

  2. Introduction • Rising China: what to do about Myanmar? • Intervention • Arguing about intervention • Arguing about intervention in Myanmar • Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Arguing about Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Conclusion

  3. Intervention Options confronting both states and non-states: Coercive External Belligerent engagement Internal Aggressive pressure Non-coercive External Consensual engagement Internal Discursive pressure

  4. Arguing about intervention • Global debate still inspired by the West • How relevant to Beijing and Myanmar? • (a) Relevant because China is now mainstream • (b) Not relevant because of distinct tradition • Johnston on Ming strategic culture • Dominant operational paradigm: hard realpolitik • Recessive symbolic paradigm: Confucian-Mencian • Both remain visible today • They form important links into mainstream debate

  5. Arguing about intervention in Myanmar • Much debate about intervention • 1988-1990-2007-2008-2009 • But little consensus • Belligerent engagement: few proponents • Aggressive pressure: US, EU, MNCs • Consensual engagement: UN, some INGOs • Discursive pressure: ASEAN

  6. Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Tribute system across many centuries • Some significant tensions 1949-88 • Common position 1988-89 and thereafter • Some growing discord in recent years • Internal issues in Myanmar • Internal issues in China • External issues beyond bilateral relations • Chinese intervention remains low level • Both state and non-state

  7. Arguing about Chinese intervention in Myanmar • Should China enhance its intervention? • Realpolitik reasons? • Confucian-Mencian reasons? • Socialization reasons? • What could Beijing do? • Short-term: Boost respect for global norms • Medium-term: Facilitate multiparty talks? • Long-term: Keep the peace?

  8. Conclusion • Hard realpolitik strategic culture in China • No permissible challenge to core interests • But is Myanmar that kind of issue? • Can other considerations apply? • Key event: 2010 general election • Wait and see attitude on many sides • Thereafter, both China and the wider world may need to recalibrate their positions

  9. Thank you! Thank you for your attention!

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