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PANDEMIC RISK

PANDEMIC RISK. The emergence of a new virus strain with no circulating immunity within the human population The ability of this strain to infect humans The potential for the new virus to be easily transmitted from person to person

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PANDEMIC RISK

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  1. PANDEMIC RISK

  2. The emergence of a new virus strain with no circulating immunity within the human population The ability of this strain to infect humans The potential for the new virus to be easily transmitted from person to person At present, two of the prerequisites for a pandemic have already been met – a new virus capable of infecting humans is circulating. 3 pre-requisites for a Pandemic

  3. Pandemic risk

  4. Threat of Global Pandemic- Virus may change to highly infectious form for human and spread from person to person i.e. increased transmissibility among human acquired by:- (a) Reassortment: exchange of genetic material - human + avian or pig (b) Adaptive mutation- gradual-binding to human cell increases IF PANDEMIC OCCURS – on the basis of 1957 pandemic: - Estimated 2M to 7.4M deaths - with attack rate 25-35% of total population -Virus with mild disease -Best circumstances

  5. SIGNALS FOR PANDEMIC • Cluster of patients with Symptoms of influenza - closely related in time and space suggest human to human transmission started. • Detection of cases in health workers caring for H5N1 would suggest human to human transmission • Investigate -– to confirm diagnosis -- identify source -- determine whether human to human transmission is occurring • Study virus – specialized WHO Reference Laboratories Genetic spotting and other properties.

  6. WHO Pandemic phases

  7. WHO pandemic plan: strategic elements • Reduce human exposure to H5N1 • Strengthen early warning system • Intensify rapid containment measures • Build capacity to cope with pandemic • Coordinate a broad multi-sectoral response

  8. PANDEMIC WILL LEAD TO • Increased number of people seeking health services • High rate of absenteeism • Interruption of essential services— • law services, transportation, communication • Social and economic disruptions • Losses in trade and commerce • Curtailment in Intercountry assistance-protection of domestic populations

  9. A Global Strategy for the Progressive Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

  10. Infection Control Measures • Surveillance • Education • Influenza Testing • Antiviral Chemoprophylaxis • Respiratory Hygiene • Standard precautions • Droplet Precautions • Restrictions for ill visitors and ill health care personals

  11. WILD LIFE HEALTH VETERINARY EARLY WARNING & RESPONSE SYSTEM

  12. vaccination Inactivated influenza vaccine Live attenuated vaccine(LAIV)

  13. H5N1 Vaccine • WHO is creating a global stockpile of H5N1 vaccine which could within 2 years, potentially contain at least 50 million doses – enough for 25 million people to receive two doses, which is likely to be needed to achieve protective levels of antibodies.

  14. BIOSECURITY

  15. Biosecurity includes the management of all biological and environmental health risks associated with food. • Two main elements: • BIO-CONTAINMENT • BIO-EXCLUSION

  16. Major components : Isolation Traffic Control Sanitation

  17. Birds are always kept in a close building biosecurity HIGH HIGH • Birds have access to a fenced park • Birds are let free in the farm yard • Birds are let free in and outside the farmyard • Birds go to rice fields and come back LOW

  18. ✦ Keep the wild birds away ✦ Avoid multi-age poultry farms ✦ Obtain feed from a clean, dependable sourcefarm. ✦ Clean and disinfect the premises and equipment on farms Exclude poultry from the home ✦ Effective management of hazardous wastes Use only clean and disinfected transport vehicles for movement of poultry and eggs. The key biosecurity measures

  19. SECURED PRIMARY FARMINGPRACTICES

  20. Avoid collecting and transporting birds from different farms or collection centres in the same vehicle Give preference to non-wooden /bamboo cages Safe transport

  21. Biosecurity in wet markets

  22. Avoid buying live poultry/ birds Keep Clean Separate raw and cooked food items Cook thoroughly Do not prepare and consume speciality raw dishes Keep food at safe temperatures . Biosecurity at customer & consumer end

  23. CONCLUSION • The Avian influenza crisis is currently one of the most important public health issues of our time with tremendous implications for peoples’ livelihoods and socio-economic impacts. • These require effective inter-sectoral collaboration between the Ministries of Agriculture and Health of countries in order to solve the problems associated with these outbreaks.

  24. THANK YOU

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