Crisis Project Management in Troubled Times…Like NOW!

1. Crisis Project Managementin Troubled Times…Like NOW! Paul Allen, CEO / Project Executive Project Executive Group – Houston Your Performance Multiplier www.projectexecutive.com February 2009

2. Paul Allen • Paul Allen, former Adjunct Professor of Management at the Jones Graduate School of Management - Rice University, taught strategic project development in MBA and Executive Education Programs including: advanced project management, corporate renewal & restructuring, decision analysis and structured project finance. • Allen is co-founder: PMI Risk Management SIG and the PMI Automation Systems SIG where he is also the Chair. Additionally, he is a member of PMI Troubled Projects SIG and PMI Houston chapter. He serves as PMIH PMP Prep Risk Management Instructor and has for nearly a decade. • He is a former member of the Turnaround Management Association (TMA) and the Society of Naval Architects & Marine Engineers (SNAME).  • Allen is CEO/Project Executive of the Project Executive Group, a Houston-based global professional services and training firm, and has over thirty years of project development, financing and training experience. PMI Houston Presentation

3. This isn’t my FIRST RODEO…IT’S MY 6th ! 1973-75 – NYS (Oil Price) 1981-82 – NYS (% Interest) 1985-87 – Hou (Oil Price) 1999-00 – Hou (Oil Price) 2001-03 – Hou (9/11,$$$) Enter Sarbanes-Oxley & WAR! 6TH - 2008-? - Houston Ouch! THAT HURTS! Experience Teaches Lessons Ike & Economy – This one’s the BULL! Where’s the Rider? PMI Houston Presentation

4. + Doing a Good Job? The Right INTERNAL Politics? + + The Right EXTERNAL Politics & Client-Relations? Continuous Improvement Education, Skill Sets & Certifications PMI Houston Presentation

5. You MUST Sharpen the Saw to Survive! Covey’s well-known book: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People Habit 7: Sharpen the Saw Sharpen the Saw means preserving and enhancing the greatest asset you have – YOU! It means having a balanced program for self-renewal in the four areas of your life: physical, social/emotional, mental, and spiritual. PMI Houston Presentation

6. 2007 - times were good, Houston, BUT… Sustainable breakthrough performance requires a laser-sharp focus on strategy execution. • The evidence is overwhelming:Strategy execution is the #1 concern of CEOs worldwide.(Source: The Conference Board, 2007 CEO Challenge) Only 12% of companies successfully execute their strategy.(Source: Balanced Scorecard Collaborative & Cognos joint study, 2006) • Strategies are EXECUTED through Projects! YOU!As a PM, you must… • Optimize NPV – Eliminate Failure – Deliver Results – NO Excuses PMI Houston Presentation

7. New Strategies MUST be successful! Today… • You’re betting your company! • An 88% FAILURE RATEin Execution is NOT ACCEPTABLE! • Strategies are executed through projects. NO Failures allowed • Strategy (Project) Execution MUST succeed for survival! • Project Failures comes from any or combination thereof: • Failure to LEARN • Failure to ANTICIPATE • Failure to ADAPT PMI Houston Presentation

8. What’s going on now - 2009 vs. 1929? Causes and Effects of the Great Depression • Most historians believe that a combination of factors was responsible. The most common factors included: • an uneven distribution of income • excessive use of credit • overproduction of consumer goods • a weak farm economy • speculation & margin buying in the stock market • restrictive government policies, such as high tariffs, and • global economic problems left from World War I • Soup Kitchens became a permanent fixture for years! Does any of the above sound familiar? Think about it! PMI Houston Presentation

9. Black Thursday – October, 1929: FACTS • The Great Depression in the United States, began on "Black Thursday" with the Wall Street crash of October, 1929 and rapidly spread worldwide. • The market crash marked the beginning of a decade of high unemployment, poverty, low profits, deflation, plunging farm incomes, and lost opportunities for economic growth and personal advancement. • Although its causes are still uncertain, the basic cause was a sudden loss of confidence in the economic future. • The usual explanations include numerous factors, especially high consumer debt, ill-regulated markets that permitted malfeasance by banks and investors, cutbacks in foreign trade, lack of high-growth new industries, and growing wealth inequality, all interacting to create a downward economic spiral of reduced spending, falling confidence, and lowered production. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

10. Black Monday – October, 1987: FACTS • The mid-1980s were a time of strong economic optimism. From August 1982 to its peak in August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew from 776 to 2722. The rise in market indices for the 19 largest markets in the world averaged 296 percent during this period. The average number of shares traded on the NYSE had risen from 65 million shares to 181 million shares. • The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14th. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday October 16th. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

11. Crash of 2008 – September 2008: FACTS • On September 16, failures of large financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure to securities of packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly evolved into a global crisis resulting in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of equities (stock) and commodities worldwide. • In the United States, 15 banks failed in 2008, while several others were rescued through government intervention or acquisitions by other banks.On October 11, 2008, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned the world financial system was teetering on "brink of systemic meltdown“. The economic crisis caused countries to temporarily close their markets. On October 8, the Indonesian stock market halted trading after a 10% one day drop. • The Times of London: "the meltdown being dubbedCrash of 2008.” PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

12. Subprime Mortgage Crisis: FACTS • The subprime mortgage crisis is an ongoing financial crisis triggered by a dramatic rise in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the United States, with major adverse consequences for banks and financial markets around the globe. The crisis, which has its roots in the closing years of the 20th century (Clinton Presidency), became apparent in 2007 and has exposed pervasive weaknesses in financial industry regulation and the global financial system. • No mention of the ARMs that accelerated this! • Many USA mortgages issued in recent years were made to subprime borrowers, defined as those with lesser ability to repay the loan based on various criteria. When USA house prices began to decline in 2006-07, mortgage delinquencies soared, and securities backed with subprime mortgages, widely held by financial firms, lost most of their value. • RESULT - a large decline in the capital of many banks and USA government sponsored enterprises, tightening credit around the world. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

13. Mexico City Opens the 1st of 300 Planned Soup Kitchens! – Jan 2009 • Unemployment and food prices are on the rise, prompting the municipality to set up a feeding network. Officials hope to dish out 65,000 free or inexpensive meals a day.  Mexico City - With her modest earnings as a seamstress and her grown children out of work, Esperanza Jose is like thousands of Mexicans finding it harder to make ends meet. And so she decided to take advantage of the city government's new soup kitchen, the first of 300 planned by March."The truth is that there are a lot of people that now don't have jobs, and so if they're offering this, we should make the most of it," said Jose, 63. "Many people are embarrassed to come; but, well, we come with dignity."As Mexico slips into the profound economic crisis circling the globe, unemployment is rising along with food prices. Inflation is running about 8% annually, but some basic "family basket" items such as cooking oil and rice are going up about 200% a year, said Cesar Cravioto, head of the city's Institute of Social Assistance. PMI Houston Presentation

14. Soup Kitchens in NY – Website Helps! Source: AP - January 2, 2008 • New Yorkers interested in helping out at soup kitchens and food pantries can now go online to search for volunteer opportunities. • The New York City Coalition Against Hunger launched a Web site yesterday that allows people to search by neighborhood or nearby subway lines for a program that best suits them. PMI Houston Presentation

15. Soup Kitchens in LA Source: Daily Herald – January 25, 2009 • Soup kitchens, which provide hot meals, and food pantries, which offer groceries mostly to families, are the backbone of the current nonprofit food system. Most are in the hearts of cities and rely primarily on individual donations of food or bulk supplies from large food banks. They also need money for overhead, all of which leaves them vulnerable during economic downturns such as the current one, nonprofit leaders say. • Operating soup kitchens during traditional business hours shuts out a large group of hungry people. About 30 percent of households headed by single mothers reported going without food at least occasionally in 2007, almost four times the rate for single people, according to Feeding America, an umbrella group for 200 food banks nationwide. PMI Houston Presentation

16. WTO Chief warns - looming political unrest BERLIN (AFP) – The global economic crisis could trigger political unrest equal to that seen during the 1930s, the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a German newspaper interview Saturday. (February 7, 2009) "The crisis today is spreading even faster (than the Great Depression) and affects more countries at the same time," Pascal Lamy told the Die Welt newspaper. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Internet Yahoo News

17. What Does History Teach Us? The initial effects of the stock market crash were not felt immediately by most Americans, but forces were triggered that would impact all social classes over the next decade, and it would take a world war to finally bring the United States out of the "Great Depression." The SOLUTION was NOT government intervention! PMI Houston Presentation

18. Who Says Intervention Won’t Work? Monday, January 12, 2009 • Marc Faber: “I Think it Might Be Far Worse [Than the Great Depression] Precisely Because of the Interventions” by the Government PhD Economist Marc Faber writes: • Economic conditions may turn out to be far worse than in previous recessions, including the Great Depression at the beginning of the 1930s. Everybody seems to think that, thanks to the government's monetary and fiscal interventions, this recession will come nowhere near the 1930s slump. However, I think it might be far worse – and precisely because of the interventions. PMI Houston Presentation Source: George Washington’s Blog

19. Effect of the Depression N. America PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

20. Henry Fonda In Grapes of Wrath - 1940 Will they go toCalifornia again? • The Grapes of Wrathis a novel published in 1939 and written by John Steinbeck, who was awarded the Pulitzer Prize and the Nobel Prize for Literature. • Set during the Great Depression, the novel focuses on a poor family of sharecroppers, the Joads, driven from their home by drought, economic hardship, and changes in the agriculture industry. In a nearly hopeless situation, they set out for California's Central Valley along with thousands in search of land, jobs, and dignity. This film was the most popular left-leaning, socialistic-themed film of pre-World War II Hollywood. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

21. Will we see Rosy the Riveter again? • Rosie the Riveter is a cultural icon of the United States, representing the six million womenwho entered the workforce for the first time during World War II, many of whom worked in the manufacturing plants that produced munitions and materiel. • These women took the places of the male workers who were absent fighting in the Pacific and European theaters. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

22. Or Wendy the Welder again? • According to Colman's Rosie the Riveter, there was also, very briefly, a "Wendy the Welder" based on Janet Doyle, a worker at the Kaiser Richmond Liberty Shipyards in California. A real-life "Rosie" working on the A-31 Vengeance bomber in Nashville, Tennessee (1943) PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

23. Great Depression-WWII Timeline FACTS Sources:T.H. Watkins, The Great Depression: America in the 1930s (New York: Little, Brown and Company, 1993)Kevin Phillips, Boiling Point (New York: HarperCollins, 1993)Kevin Phillips, The Politics of Rich and Poor (New York: Random House, 1990)The 1995 Grolier Encyclopedia (Entries: New Deal, Depression of the 30s, Roosevelt, Coolidge.)The Encyclopedia Brittanica Online (Entries: New Deal, Great Depression.)Donald Barlett and James Steele, America: What Went Wrong? (Kansas City: Andrews and McMeel, 1992)Donald Barlett and James Steele, America: Who Really Pays the Taxes? (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994)James MacGregor Fox, Roosevelt: The Lion and the Fox (New York: Konecky and Konecky, 1956)Elaine Schwartz, Econ 101½ (New York: Avon Books, 1995)Peter Pugh and Chris Garratt, Introducing Keynes (Cambridge, England: Icon Books, Ltd., 1993) PMI Houston Presentation

24. Great Depression-WWII Timeline FACTS 1929 - Automobile sales decline 1/3 – 9 months before crash. 1930 - GNP falls 9.4 %. Unemployment climbs - 3.2 to 8.7 %. 1931 - GNP falls another 8.5 %; unemployment rises - 15.9 %. 1932 • 10,000 banks have failed since 1929 (40 % of 1929 total). • GNP has also fallen 31 % since 1929. • Over 13 million Americans have lost their jobs since 1929. • Top tax rate is raisedfrom 25 to 63 % 1933 • free fall of GNP significantly slowed; dips only 2.1 % this year. • Unemployment rises slightly - 24.9 % PMI Houston Presentation

25. Great Depression-WWII Timeline FACTS 1934 • Economy turns: GNP rises 7.7 % , unemployment falls - 21.7 %. • A long road to recovery begins. • Sweden becomes first nation to recover fully- It has followed a policy of Keynesian deficit spending. 1935 • Economic recovery continues: the GNP grows another 8.1 %, and unemployment falls - 20.1 % 1936 • Top tax rateraised - 79 %. • GNP grows a record 14.1 %; unemployment falls - 16.9 % • Germany becomes second nation to recover fully - through heavy deficit spending in preparation for war. PMI Houston Presentation

26. Great Depression-WWII Timeline FACTS 1937 • Economists attribute economic growth so far to heavy government spending that is somewhat deficit. Roosevelt, however, fears an unbalanced budget and cuts spending for 1937. That summer, the nation plunges into another recession. Despite this, the yearly GNP rises 5.0 percent, andunemployment falls - 14.3 %. 1938 • The year-long recession makes itself felt: the GNP falls 4.5 percent, and unemployment rises - 19.0 %. • Britain becomes the third nation to recover - as it begins deficit spending in preparation for war. PMI Houston Presentation

27. Great Depression-WWII Timeline FACTS 1939 • GNP rises 7.9 percent; unemployment falls - 17.2 %. • The United States will begin emerging from the Depression as it borrows and spends $1 billion to build its armed forces. From 1939 to 1941, when the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor, U.S. manufacturing will have shot up a phenomenal 50 %! • The Depression is ending worldwideas nations prepare for the coming hostilities. • World War II starts with Hitler's invasion of Poland. PMI Houston Presentation

28. Great Depression-WWII Timeline FACTS 1945 • Although the war is the largest tragedy in human history, the United States emerges as the world's only economic superpower. Deficit spending has resulted in a national debt 123 % the size of the GDP. By contrast, in 1994, the $4.7 trillion national debt will be only 70 % of the GDP! • The top tax rate is 91 %. It will stay at least 88 % until 1963, when it is lowered to 70 %. During this time, America will experience the greatest economic boom it has ever known. REALLY? • Let’s take a look: • at the FIVE Recessions from 1945 to 1963, and • the rest. PMI Houston Presentation

29. Recessions Since the Great Depression • Recession of (1945)Duration: 8 months • Recession of (1948 - 1949)Duration: 11 months • Post-Korean War Recession (1953 - 1954) - The Recession of 1953 was a demand-driven recession due to poor government policies and high interest rates. Duration: 10 months • Recession of (1957 - 1958)Duration: 8 months • Recession of (1960 - 1961) Duration: 10 months • Bond Inversion of (1965 - 1967)no recession materialized • Recession of (1969 - 1970)Duration: 11 months • 1973 oil crisis (1973 - 1975) - a quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending due to the Vietnam War leads to stagflation in the United States. Duration: 16 months • 1979 energy crisis - 1979 until 1980, the Iranian Revolution sharply increases the price of oil • Recession of (1981 - 1982) Duration: 16 months • Early 1980s recession - 1982 and 1983, caused by tight monetary policy in the U.S. to control inflation and sharp correction to overproduction of the previous decade which had been masked by inflation • Great Commodities Depression- 1980 to 2000, general recession in commodity prices (OIL PRICES FELL) • Late 1980s recession- 1988 to 1992, collapse of junk bonds and a sharp stock crash in the United States leads to a recession in much of the West • Japanese recession- 1991 to present, collapse of a real estate bubble and more fundamental problems halts Japan’s once astronomical growth • Asian financial crisis- 1997, a collapse of Thai currency inflicts damage on many of the economies of Asia • Early 2000s recession- 2001 to 2003: the collapse of the Dot Com Bubble, September 11th attacks and accounting scandalscontribute to a relatively mild contraction in the North American economy. PMI Houston Presentation

30. History of Taxes – 1981-Now… • 1981 - Congress enacts largest tax cut in history, $750 billion over 6 yrs. • Oct. 22, 1986 – Pres. Reagan signed Tax Reform Act of 1986. Top tax rate on individual income was lowered - 50% to 28%, the lowest it had been since 1916 • Followed by yearly tradition of new tax acts - began 1986, • Aug. 10, 1993, Pres. Clinton signed Revenue Reconciliation Act of 1993 • Pres. George W. Bush signed a series of tax cuts. Largest was the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 - estimated to save taxpayers $1.3 trillion over ten years, making it the third largest tax cut since World War II. The Bush tax cut created a new lowest rate, 10% for first several thousand dollars earned. Cut the top four tax rates (28% to 25%; 31% to 28%; 36% to 33%; and 39.6% to 35%). THIS IS ALL GOING TO CHANGE…BE READY FOR IT! PMI Houston Presentation

31. What About NOW? - UK in 2009! UK recession: It's now official • The UK is officially in recession. Confirmation came this morning when figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed the economy shrank by 1.5 % in the final three months of last year. •  By Angela Monaghan - Last Updated: 2:48PM GMT 23 Jan 2009 PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

32. What About NOW in the U.S.? Wikipedia – Late 2000’s Recession 2008 - a recession throughout the industrialized world was suggested by several important indicators of economic downturn.[1] Contributors: high oil prices, high food prices, and a substantial credit crisis leading to the drastic bankruptcy of large and well established investment banks as well as commercial banks in many nations around the world. This crisis has led to increased unemployment, and other signs of contemporaneous economic downturns in major economies of the world. • December 2008 - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), private, nonprofit research organization, declared that the United States had been in recession since December 2007, - several economists expressed concern - there is no end in sight for the downturn. This crisis has been called the Second Great Depressionby some observers, and the Great Recessionby others. PMI Houston Presentation Source: Wikipedia

33. What About Feb 11th – Yahoo Finance • Top Stories • Stocks Move Higher After Yesterday's Plunge - AP • A day after a steep selloff on Wall Street, investors are looking for bargains but are still very cautious about the banking industry and the overall economy. The gains aren't surprising after stocks tumbled more than 4 % on Tuesday (Feb10th). • Bankers to appear before dubious Congress- AP • Negotiations intensify on final stimulus plan- AP • Trade deficit drops to $39.9B; lowest in 6 years- AP • World stocks fall on skepticism over US bank plan- AP • Oil stays below $38 on bailout skepticism- AP • Cuomo blasts Merrill executives on bonus plan- AP • Toll Brothers 1Q home building revenue drops- AP • GE Energy gets $1B Saudi Electricity contract- AP • Bank of England says Britain in 'deep recession'- AP PMI Houston Presentation

34. Do We Have Your Attention? Do we agree we’re in troubled times? • WHAT MUST we as project managers DO during this time? • What DECISIONS MUST we make to deal with this? • How CAN we instill a TRUE Sense of Urgency in what we do? PMI Houston Presentation

35. What Actions Must Be Taken By PMs? Some Suggested Quick “Pareto” Answers • ACT as if every day, you are going out of business! – Maybe you are! • PROTECT your Risk-Based Fully-Integrated Master Schedules & Budgets ALL THE TIME! • At the Project Executive Group, we instill a true sense of urgency in everything we do. We fully recognize and respect the time value of money and optimization of the NPV. Contact us for immediate assistance when a SENSE of URGENCY is important to you AND when TIME is of the ESSENCE in delivering RESULTS. • We GUARANTEE our work. DO IT RIGHT THE FIRST TIME! • TAKE OWNERSHIP – Behave as the CEO of the project investment! • PROTECT the Buffers – Go into Crisis mode if you lose a day or $ of buffer! PMI Houston Presentation

36. A “MUST Do!” Wake Up Call for Project Management Pros! ELIMINATE • Complacency and • the False Sense of Urgency in your projects and your company! EXCEL in • Learning • Anticipating and • Adapting to a climate impacting your project and company. PMI Houston Presentation

37. What problems do PMs need to address? • Complacency can no longer be tolerated! • The dictionary says complacency is “a feeling of contentment or self satisfaction, especially when coupled with an unawareness of danger or trouble • Two Key Words: feeling and self • Almost always, complacent individuals do not view themselves as complacent. They see themselves as behaving quite rationally, given the circumstances. PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

38. Resistant to New Ideas? - YOU cannot afford to be TODAY! PMI Houston Presentation

39. The odds are overwhelming that complacency is around you! Where does complacency come from? • Complacency is almost always the product of success or perceived success. Complacency can live on long after great success has disappeared. Perceptions DO NOT have to be accurate! PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

40. The Complacent How do they think? • The complacent virtually never think they are complacent. “I’m doing what’s right.” “Sometimes it isn’t easy, but I know what to do and I do it – or if I can’t entirely do it, the problem is created over there (in that department, by my boss, by competitors that don’t play fair, etc.).” • The BLAME GAME! A “non-productive” exercise! • Fix the problem, not the blame! PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

41. The Complacent What do they feel? • At a very basic, gut level, the complacent are content with the status quo. Sometimes they cling to what exists because they are afraid, often irrationally afraid, of the personal consequences of change. PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

42. The Complacent How do they behave? • The best way to identify the complacent is by what they do instead of what they say (though words can be revealing). • The complacent do not alertly look for new opportunities or hazards facing their organization. They pay much more attention to what is happening internally than externally. They tend to move at thirty miles an hour even when fifty is clearly needed to succeed.They rarely initiate or truly lead. Most of all, they do what has worked for them in the past. • IS THIS YOU? PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

43. WHO can be complacent? The assembly line worker, you, me, our bosses, anybody! PMI Houston Presentation

44. What is the other problem now? • False Sense of Urgency • False sense of urgency is a condition that is very different from complacency. While complacency embraces the status quo, false urgency is filled with energy. While complacency is built on feeling that the status quo is basically fine, false urgency is built on a platform of anxiety and anger. PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

45. What are the issues now? Anxiety and Anger • Anxiety and anger drive behavior that can be highly energetic – which is why people mistake false for true urgency. • The energy from anger and anxiety can easily create activity, not productivity, and sometimes very destructive activity. PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

46. The odds are overwhelming that false urgency is around you! Where does it come from? • False urgency is almost always the product of failures, or some form of intense pressure that is put on a group. How do people think? • Those with a false sense of urgency do not think that all is well. They may think that the situation they are in is a mess. They may think their boss is applying ridiculous pressures on them. PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

47. False Urgency What do they feel? • Those with a false sense of urgency tend to be very anxious, angry, frustrated and tired. PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

48. False Urgency How do they behave? • They behave in ways that can easily be mistaken for people with a real sense of urgency because they are very active. • But with a false sense of urgency, the action is more activity than productivity. It’s frenectic! It is more mindless running to protect themselves or attack others than purposive focus on critical problems and opportunities. Run-run, meet-meet, talk-talk, defend-defend, and go home exhausted. • IS THIS YOU? PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter

49. WHO can behave with a false sense of urgency? The assembly line worker, you, me, our bosses, anybody! PMI Houston Presentation

50. URGENCY It all starts with a true sense of urgency! • A sense of urgency • The guiding team • Visions & strategies • Communication • Empowerment • Short-term wins • Never letting up • Making change stick PMI Houston Presentation Source: A Sense of Urgency – J. Kotter