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Oat Market Outlook

Current Situation. CBOT oat futures climb to 20 year highCash oat prices approaching 5-year highs Relationship between futures and cash distortedCash oat markets in relative balanceCorn the price leader for oatsOat supply is chasing demandWorld grain and coarse grain balances tight. What's dr

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Oat Market Outlook

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    1. Oat Market Outlook Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up

    2. Current Situation CBOT oat futures climb to 20 year high Cash oat prices approaching 5-year highs Relationship between futures and cash distorted Cash oat markets in relative balance Corn the price leader for oats Oat supply is chasing demand World grain and coarse grain balances tight Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up

    3. What’s driving oat prices Funds continue to dominate oat pit Energy prices impacting grain markets Crude oil Ethanol Canadian Dollar Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up

    4. Monthly CBOT Oats Continuous Monthly CBOT Oats

    5. Seasonal CBOT oat price trends

    6. Nearby CBOT weekly close

    7. Continuous Weekly Can-Oat Bid

    8. Continuous Weekly Grain Millers Bid

    9. Cash basis levels under pressure

    10. Canadian Oat Production Highest production in 27 years Manitoba record high – good quality crop Lower than expected quality in Saskatchewan but huge crop More than enough oats to meet commercial demand Canadian production 5 yr avg of 3.267mmt Man/Sask production is down 150,000 mt from last year but near the five-year average Canadian production 5 yr avg of 3.267mmt Man/Sask production is down 150,000 mt from last year but near the five-year average

    11. Manitoba/Sask Production up 27-year high production Major driver of CBOT oats Regions supports five oat mills - 90% of exports

    12. Canadian Oat Use Average use 2.4 mmt 07/08 raw oat exports forecast down 13% U.S. feed demand down as oat prices too high relative to other feed grains Milling use forecast up down 2% One mill down Expansion at another

    13. Canadian Oat Ending Stocks 07/08 forecast up 73% Oat supplies up more than 500,000 mt On-farm feed use sharply higher Price may climib but demand is fairly inelastic No off-shore feed demand Bulk of milling oat exports from this region

    14. U.S. oat imports 07/08 forecast mostly steady Feed demand down to a 10-year low Mill demand up slightly Unlikely any Scan’s

    15. World Coarse Grain End Stocks

    16. Scandinavian oat production Up 30% Quality average to above Most exports will remain in Europe No subsidy will be granted this year EU keeps import tariff Overall trends continue to lower oat production A non threat to Canada

    17. The good and not so good news

    18. Can-Oat Saskatoon Price Trends

    19. Grain Millers, Yorkton Price Trends

    20. The major threat for oat growers 500,000 surplus

    21. Monthly CBOT corn/oat spread - mt

    22. Canadian Dollar & Crude Oil

    23. Looking to 2008 Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up Seasonal low of $1.22 Current March price $1.57 Corn/Oat spread has narrowed nearly $50 uspmt Cash prices up

    24. Cash oat/barley spread

    25. Change in Saskatoon Cash Prices

    26. Canadian oat plantings

    27. 2008 Canadian oat situation

    28. Canadian Oat Produciton

    29. Canadian Oat Ending Stocks

    30. Canadian mill price outlook Old crop Manitoba $3.00 - $3.50 Saskatchewan $2.75 - $3.25 Alberta $2.75 - $3.25

    31. Should you grow oats in 2008? Yes! Low input costs Ease of marketing Forward contract program allows price lock for 90% of quality grown Canadian oat production will fall minium of nearly 900,000 mt Oat prices will rise relative to other crops Commercial oat demand unchanged but inelastic

    32. Things to watch for in the oat market Crude oil prices Fund activity Canadian Dollar CBOT corn/oat spread CWB barley monoply US & Canadian mills covered into end of March Supply will chase demand – change from past six years where growers were in control of $

    33. “How to get the best price for your oats Trust no one source and do your home work Understanding supply and demand Track markets, futures, cash, oats & corn Look at seasonal trends

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