160 likes | 313 Views
Presentation Arise Ockelbo, oktober 2014 Per-Erik Eriksson. Arise in brief. Development since 2009. Arise one of the largest independent wind power operators in Sweden with the business model to: Sell electricity produced by own and co-owned onshore wind farms
E N D
Arise in brief Development since 2009 • Arise one of the largest independent wind power operators in Sweden with the business model to: • Sell electricity produced by own and co-owned onshore wind farms • Develop, sell and manage wind farms for others • 368 MW operational and under management, of which 266 MW owned • Focus on the growing Swedish wind power market • Long term government support and commitment to increase renewable energy production • Additional growth potential in Norway and Scotland • Strong track-record of developing and operating wind farms • Vertically integrated business with industrial approach • Successful track-record in securing revenues at competitive levels • Arise AB is traded on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm since 2010 • Current market cap. of SEK ~ 600 million • Strong shareholder base • Experienced and reputable organization RTM = Rolling Twelve Months
A successful track record of developing and operating onshore wind farms Arise’s portfolio (30 September 2014) Geographic distribution of wind farms 1 Oxhult, 24.9 MW 2 Råbelöv, 10.4 MW 3 Idhult, 16.6 MW 4 SödraKärra, 10.8 MW 5 Blekhem, 10.8 MW 6 Gettnabo, 12.5 MW 7 Skäppentorp, 3.1 MW 8 Brunsmo, 12.5 MW 11 9 Fröslida, 22.5 MW • Arise has all relevant resources to develop, construct and operate onshore wind power projects expeditiously and cost efficiently • Proprietary competence has been built up from the execution and operation of projects • In addition to the portfolio above, Arise has two projects under development in Scotland (approx. 120 MW) 10 Kåphult, 17.5 MW 4 11 Jädraås, 101.5 MW 5 14 12 Skogaby, 7.2 MW 1 9 3 7 10 13 6 12 8 13 2 Stjärnarp, 5.4 MW 14 Bohult, 12.8 MW In operation (164.6 MW) Arise’s share in JV
Jädraås wind farm – a successful project from start to finish General project information Commentary • Jädraås wind farm, situated in Ockelbo Municipality close to Gävle, is Northern Europe’s largest onshore wind farm • When acquiring the project all permits where in order, however Arise had to manage financing, detailed planning, grid connection and procurement of suppliers • Construction included the creation of a road network, the casting of foundations, transport of materials, establishment of electricity grids, as well as the construction and installation of the 119 metre high turbines • Thorough preparations coupled with an experienced and competent management delivered the project according to time schedule and below budget • Total investment approx. SEK 3.2 billion
Historical power and certificate price development Swedish electricity and certificate spot price 2009-2014YTD Commentary SEK / MWh • Prices are trading below 5 year average • Low coal and CO2 prices • Macroeconomics • Good availability in Swedish and Finnish nuclear power • Slight improvement in forward prices during the summer: • Correction from extreme low price environment • Hydrological balance improving (deficit) • The certificate price has been negatively affected by a surplus in the system Average 2009-2014 Source: Nord Pool Spot, NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe, SKM, Bloomberg
Antalet fullasttimmar ökar Timmar Parker byggda, år
Attractive fundamentals for wind power in Sweden Availability of land Strong wind resources Strong grid Balance power Wind (5%) Thermal (11%) Hydro (41%) Nuclear (43%) • Sweden has one of the lowest population densities in Europe and large land areas available for wind power • Many potential project sites offer attractive average wind speeds • Load factor is the most critical component in making wind power profitable • Sweden has a strong electricity grid that covers a large portion of the country • Interconnectivity with neighboring countries enables export and import to balance supply and demand • Large share of hydro power in Sweden and the other Nordic countries offers a large resource of balance power for intermittent renewable capacity in Sweden and neighboring countries Sweden is resource wise one of the most attractive onshore wind power markets in Europe Source: Svenska kraftnät, the Swedish Energy Agency
Development of wind power in Sweden Targets for renewable energy in Sweden Installed wind power in Sweden TWh TWh MW • The Swedish electricity certificate market was established in 2003 with the goal of increasing renewable electricity production by 25 TWh between 2002-2020. Up until 31 December 2011 Sweden reached an increase of 13.3 TWh • Since 1 January 2012, Sweden and Norway have a common market for electricity certificates. The goal is to increase renewable production by 26.4 TWh jointly, i.e. 13.2 TWh per country. Sweden added a total of 2.8 TWh in 2012 of which 68% was wind power • Another 10.4 TWh is still to be added until 2020 (including 2013) • Swedish wind power capacity has increased rapidly since the government renewable energy target was set in 2002 and the certificate market was established. Current installed capacity is ~10 TWh or ~4,500 MW • In 2009 the Swedish Government set a planning frame of 30 TWh wind power by 2020, comprising of 20 TWh onshore and 10 TWh offshore • Wind power growth will thus be integral in reaching the targets set out by the Swedish government Source: Swedish Energy Agency
Rule of thumb • Megawatt (MW)= Capacity measure • 1 wind turbine generator (WTG) 1.6-3.0 MW • Megawatt hour (MWh) = Energy (production) measure • 1 MW wind power 2,400 – 3,600 MWh in a full year • 1,000,000 MWh = 1,000 GWh = 1 TWh • 1 TWh ~ 135 WTG á 2.5 MW • Swedish long-term target framework for wind power is 30 TWh • Of which 20 TWh onshore wind power (3,000 – 5,000 WTG’s) • Investment cost • ~ EUR 1.5 million / MW • ~ EUR 3-4 million / WTG
Our conclusions Mid and long term Nordic price development • Power prices: • Mid term: Side wards: Price development on coal sets the scene as well as industrial energy consumption in Europe • Long term: Up: Need for new production capacity due to aging nuclear fleet in Sweden, new interconnectors to regions with higher power prices. • To attract new capacity the power price has to increase • Certificate prices: • Mid term: Up: Proposed quota increase by the authority will reduce current surplus and increase price. Positive political momentum • Long term: ?: Depending on how the demand for new environmental friendly production develops
The Swedish national grid and bidding areas The Swedish national grid • The Swedish electricity grid can be divided into three levels: local grids, regional transmission grids and the national transmission grid • Svenska Kraftnät manages Sweden's national grid, which includes about 15,000 km transmission lines, substations and international 400 and 220 kV interconnectors • Efficiency, safety and the long-term planning are three primary aims. Expansion planning, maintenance and operational supervision are required to fulfil this • As system operator, Svenska Kraftnät is responsible for maintaining balance in the power system The four bidding areas • In November 2011, Svenska Kraftnät divided the Swedish electricity market into four bidding areas • The decision to introduce bidding areas was part of the EU’s attempt to create a common European electricity market • The borders between the bidding areas are drawn where there are congestions in the national grid for electricity • The bidding areas help identify where in Sweden the national grid needs to be expanded and where increased electricity production is required to better meet regional consumption and thus reduce the need to transport electricity long distances • The surplus demand in Southern Sweden and surplus supply in Northern Sweden, in combination with limited grid capacity, leads to, on average, slightly higher prices in the southern part of the country • In addition, producers in generation deficit regions generally receive a grid benefit versus a grid cost in surplus regions Source: Svenska Kraftnät
The Swedish – Norwegian certificate system Introduction to the certificate system Current and new proposed quota obligation • The certificate system is a market based support system that first came into effect in May 2003 in Sweden and is designed to support the build-out of new renewable energy capacity • Through the certificate system, producers of renewable energy receive electricity certificates during the first 15 years of operation for each produced MWh • Supply is determined by the amount of renewable energy production entitled to receive certificates and the number of such certificates producers decide to sell • Demand is determined by the statutory quota obligation and the total electricity consumption • The system is financed by consumers of energy (some energy intensive industries are exempt) via the electricity bill • In 2012 Norway joined Sweden in the certificate system to create a joint certificate market up until and including 2035 • The joint market is supported by the existing Swedish certificate system and the introduction of a Norwegian certificate system • The combined objective of the two systems is 26.4 TWh of new renewable energy in the period 2012-2020 • In order to ensure that the objectives are achieved, the regulators may propose technical changes to the system energy every four years at pre-determined checkpoints/control stations • A combination of high build-out pace of renewables and lower than expected electricity consumption have resulted in a surplus of certificates. The Swedish Energy Agency therefore proposed an adjustment of the current quota obligation in February 2014 • The next checkpoint in the certificate system is 2015 when the regulators have the opportunity to adjust imbalances. InFebruary 2014, the regulators in Sweden and Norway proposed technical adjustments to the certificate quota level as a measure to reduce the surplus of certificates/spur demand in order to achieve the common goal • The proposed adjustments would be implemented from, and including, 2016 and mean that the quota obligations are increased by approximately 8 TWh per year between 2016-2019 The government regulated certificate system is a robust market based system with long-term commitment Source: Swedish Energy Agency
Variations in wind energy Energy content of wind Energy content of wind • The output of wind energy is dependant on the energy content of the wind and how it varies over time. Statistics on the output of all wind turbines that have been officially registered with the Swedish Energy Agency show that between 1991 and 2010 the energy content varied from 84% to 116% of an average year with a standard deviation of 9% • Average monthly production varies from around 5% of an annual production in July and over 11% in November and December