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IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis": Challenges, Structure and Timetable. Thomas Stocker. Co-Chair Working Group I University of Bern, Switzerland. IPCC (2007):.

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IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis

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  1. IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis": Challenges, Structure and Timetable Thomas Stocker Co-Chair Working Group IUniversity of Bern, Switzerland

  2. IPCC (2007): • Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations .... • Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations. • Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...

  3. Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5: • Introduction Chapter 1 • Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5 • Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7 • From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10 • Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12 • Integration Chapters 13, 14 The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

  4. New features in WGI AR5 The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

  5. New features in WGI AR5 The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

  6. New features in WGI AR5 The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

  7. New features in WGI AR5 Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections: Editorial Team, Review Editor Team, Advisory Board The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

  8. Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5: Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal Points May Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI Bureau Nov LA1 Kunming, China 2010 Mar-Jun Completion of zero-order draft, and review Jul LA Meeting 2 Nov-Feb Completion of first-order draft, and review 2011 Apr LA Meeting 3 Jul 31 cut-off for submitted papers Aug-Nov Completion of second-order draft, and review 2012 Jan LA Meeting 4 Mar 15 cut-off for accepted papers Jun Completion of final draft Jun-Aug Final government distribution and review of SPM Sep 16-19 WGI AR5 Approval Plenary 2013

  9. Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5: Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal Points May Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI Bureau Nov LA1 Kunming, China 2010 Your expertise in AR5 is needed: Please contact your IPCC Focal Point

  10. Challenges: • Amount of material (literature, simulations) and the burden to the scientific community • Significantly broader model diversity and likely increase in uncertainty • Communication of uncertainties: what is known, what is emerging • More cross-WG cooperation retaining full coherency • Maintain the highest standards under increased pressure and expectations in a highly politicized environment • Transparency, Rigorosity, Comprehensiveness, Robustness

  11. What do you require of WCRP ? WCRP organizes and catalizes the science, defines priorities, launches big programs, oversees multi-year international research Clouds & Aerosols: Processes and Sensitivities Decadal Prediction: Evaluation and Verification Multi-Model Ensembles using Earth System Models Regional Climate Change: D&A and Projections Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities Geoengineering

  12. Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5: Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal Points May Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI Bureau Nov LA1 Kunming, China 2010 Your expertise in AR5 is needed: Please contact your IPCC Focal Point Information: wg1@ipcc.unibe.ch

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