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Rational Decision Making Harrison, Ch. 3

Rational Decision Making Harrison, Ch. 3. Fred Wenstøp. Emotion and decision making. Case: Phineas Gage Experiment 1: A group of people, some normal and some suffering from prefrontal deficiency was Exposed to a fire alarm Shown value laden pictures Experiment 2: Choice of card decks.

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Rational Decision Making Harrison, Ch. 3

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  1. Rational Decision MakingHarrison, Ch. 3 Fred Wenstøp

  2. Emotion and decision making • Case: Phineas Gage • Experiment 1: • A group of people, some normal and some suffering from prefrontal deficiency was • Exposed to a fire alarm • Shown value laden pictures • Experiment 2: • Choice of card decks Fred Wenstøp

  3. Damasio’s theory Neocortex Prefrontal lobes Amygdala Stimulus Feelings Emotional response from the body Primary emotions trigger Secondary emotions trigger Fred Wenstøp

  4. RationalityFøllesdal 1992 • Four dimensions of rationality • rationality as logical consistency • pertains both to values and beliefs • rationality as well-foundedness of beliefs • beliefs are well supported by available evidence • rationality of action • application of decision theory • rationality as well-foundedness of values • reflective equilibrium that gives a stable set of convictions that are relevant for the decision situation Fred Wenstøp

  5. The rational decision model • Frame • A set of mutually exclusive decision alternatives has been identified • A set of relevant objectives has been identified by which to evaluate the alternatives • Well-founded scores (x) have been established • Predicted consequences of the altenatives, beliefs • Well-founded weights (w) have been established • Importance of the objectives, represent values • Decision Table • Contains all the information above Fred Wenstøp

  6. Rational choice • An evaluating function that is in accordance with the decision maker’s preferences has been identified • U(x1,x2,..) = f(w1,w2,…,x1,x2,..) • The alternative with the highest expected value is chosen Fred Wenstøp

  7. Common evaluating functions • Linear model • U(x1,x2,x3) = w1u1(x1) + w2u2(x2) + w3u3(x3) • Multiplicative model • U(x1,x2,x3) = w1u1(x1) + w2u2(x2) + w3u3(x3) + kw1u1(x1)w2u2(x2) + kw1u1(x1)w3u3(x3) + kw2u2(x2)w3u3(x3) + k2w1u1(x1)w2u2(x2)w3u3(x3) • These models ensures consistency of preference • Assumptions • Value and preference independence Fred Wenstøp

  8. HIV Case: The Decision panel • The Panel • Governmental advisor on AIDS matters • Svein-Erik Ekeid • Deputy minister, Ministry of Social Affairs • Emil Hansen • Director of National Institute of Public Health • Bodolf Hareide • Decision context • Identification of viable program target groups • Value focusing • Essential values were identified without discussing consequences of alternatives Fred Wenstøp

  9. HIV Case: Value structure Fred Wenstøp

  10. HIV Case: Framing the problem Fred Wenstøp

  11. HIV Case: Weights • Weight elicitation • Computer interactive • Discussions • Emotional responses • Unanimous result Fred Wenstøp

  12. Viability study Fred Wenstøp

  13. Infection potential N Fred Wenstøp

  14. HIV Case: Conclusion • The viability study showed that • in order to be efficient, any program directed against an immigrant group must prevent new HIV cases at least: • Europeans 665 • Americans & orientals 510 • Sub-Sahara Africans 100 • A simulation study showed that • if left to themselves they would at the maximum infect • Europeans 20 • Americans & orientals 266 • Sub-Sahara Africans 376 Fred Wenstøp

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