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Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: 1997-2007

Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: 1997-2007. Betty Kibaara, Joshua Ariga, Thomas Jayne and John Olwande. Conference on: Agricultural Productivity, Competitiveness and Rural Poverty in Kenya: Laying the Foundation for Vision 2030 17-18 September, 2008. Presentation Outline.

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Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: 1997-2007

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  1. Trends in Kenyan Agricultural Productivity: 1997-2007 Betty Kibaara, Joshua Ariga, Thomas Jayne and John Olwande Conference on: Agricultural Productivity, Competitiveness and Rural Poverty in Kenya: Laying the Foundation for Vision 2030 17-18 September, 2008

  2. Presentation Outline • Background • Objectives of the Study • Data and methods • Trends in land ownership and cultivated land • Contribution of crop income • Trends in productivity • Factors contributing to productivity growth, decline or stagnation • Policy implications

  3. Background • Agricultural productivity levels in SSA below that of other regions in the World • Since 2000, productivity growth in SSA impressive • In the past, agricultural production largely a function of acreage, further growth will have to be driven by productivity growth • Local and Regional strategies • Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture (SRA) • Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) • Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) • Kenya Vision 2030

  4. Objectives • To examine trends in the Kenyan agricultural productivity • Cereal (maize) • Industrial crops( tea, coffee and sugarcane) • Horticultural crops ( Irish potatoes and cabbages) • Dairy • Explore factors driving or hindering productivity growth • Draw implications for policy and suggest actions needed for sustainable productivity growth

  5. Contribution (%) of Crop Income to the overall Annual Household Income

  6. Trends in Owned and Cultivated Land 6% decline in mean per household owned land (from a 6.1 in 1997 acres to 5.8 acres in 2007) Cultivated land declined slightly from 3.5 acres in 1997 to 3.4 acres per household in 2007

  7. Mean Maize Productivity 40% growth

  8. Maize Productivity- Pure stand Vs Intercrop 78% of Total maize area is intercropped

  9. Drivers of Maize Productivity Growth

  10. Tea Productivity(Kgs of green leaf per acre/year) 15% growth

  11. Drivers of Tea Productivity Growth • Increasing fertilizer adoption (% of hhs) • 84% to 98% • Increasing fertilizer use rate (kg/acre) • Western highlands (Vihiga & Kisii)

  12. Coffee Productivity(Cherries in kg/acre) 30% decline since 2000

  13. Factors affecting Coffee productivity • Management problems • Declining international prices

  14. Sugarcane Productivity(tonnes/acre) 8.4% productivity decline since 2000

  15. Factors contributing to decline in Sugarcane productivity • Poor cane varieties • Low sucrose level & high fibre content • Take long to mature

  16. Cabbage Productivity (Kg/acre) 23% Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating

  17. Irish Potato Productivity (Kg/acre) 18% Cabbage Productivity Growth, but fluctuating trends

  18. Annual Milk productivity (liters/cow/year) 18% productivity growth

  19. Drivers of Milk Productivity Growth

  20. Other cross cutting services

  21. Sources of Agricultural Credit

  22. Benchmarking Kenya’s Agricultural Productivity

  23. Summary of the Productivity Trends

  24. Key drivers of productivity growth • Infrastructure improvements • Increased fertilizer use • Technology generation and adoption • Improved seed varieties • Uptake of improved dairy cows • Role of markets

  25. Policy Implications Sustainability of high fertilizer adoption against rising global fertilizer prices requires innovative financing through Private Public Partnership. Transaction costs of inputs could be reduced through investment in ‘public goods’ such as physical infrastructure. Emerging role of input dealers in input delivery system. Up scaling the agro dealer training program could further improve access to inputs Given the declining land sizes within the smallholder farming sectors of in Kenya, land allocation and land settlement will need to be on the policy agenda. Introduction of early maturity and high yielding sugarcane varieties would increase efficiency and raise rural household incomes Irish potatoes are a good substitute and especially with the current rise in maize prices. However, there is no certified potato seed growers in the country. Provision of clean seed could be jointly undertaken by the private sector , development and the government

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