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Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge

Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge . ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm Ron Swenson. Swenson’s Law. Roscoe Bartlett.

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Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge

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  1. Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm Ron Swenson www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  2. Swenson’s Law www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  3. Roscoe Bartlett “It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.” www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  4. Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: • EROEI • Global Warming • Scalability • Timing www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  5. Why leave out Economics? • Economics is an instrument of policy. • It’s the last step in the process: • First figure out what works… • Then create incentives. www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  6. EROEI • Energy Returned On Energy Invested • ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas) www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  7. EROEI for PV • EPBT: 5 years • Life: 50 years • Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 1030 ~ electric www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  8. EROEI for Thin Film PV • EPBT: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 40120 ~electric www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  9. EROEI for Wind • EPBT: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROEI = 80240 ~ electric www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  10. Global Warming • Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short! www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  11. Atmospheric CO2 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  12. Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse • Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35 days • Larger than Rhode Island • Totally baffled scientists • 1 down, 4 to go www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  13. EROEI for Tar Sands Plus… • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas • Low EROEI → Greenhouse gases EROEI = 3? www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  14. EROEI for Nuclear Plus … • Terrorism • Waste guarded for 10,000+ years • Depletion → low grade ores → Greenhouse gases … How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland? EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  15. EROEI for Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROEI = -½ www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  16. www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  17. Scalability www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  18. Renewable Energy Solar 1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical Wind 2-4 TW extractable Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross Hydroelectric Geothermal 4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  19. There is no Silver Bullet. Why Silver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted. • Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35 • Specific gravity of Ag = 10.50 Ag Ag www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  20. There is no Ag Bullet. • Now I think I follow what you mean. Let’s find out why…. www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  21. Corn Ethanol www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  22. Corn Ethanol • Energy content 75% from fossil fuels: • Coal (electricity) > 40% • Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30% • Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel • Photosynthesis 5- 26% • Depletes soil and water supplies • Competes with food resources • Not carbon-neutral www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  23. Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil) • Meets 40% of demand • Brazil per capita use is 10% of US  • 40% x 10% = 4% • Many sugar cane workers are slaves • Produces aldehydes in exhaust • Soil and water conditions very different www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  24. Cellulosic Ethanol … www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  25. Cellulosic Ethanol “All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space.” www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  26. Forest Facts • Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km2 or 30% of the total land area • Global deforestation – 13 million hectares • Net loss of forests – 7.3 million hectares • 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact • Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2.8 million hectares/year www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  27. Without Cellulosic Ethanol www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  28. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  29. Ethanol Scorecard www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  30. But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!? • How do we handle transportation after peak oil? www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  31. www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  32. Timing • Application Technology: PRT • Note distinction between application technology and generation technology. • In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy. www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  33. Freeway at Capacity www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  34. Vehicles Removed www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  35. PRT Passengers www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  36. PRT System www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  37. Solar PRT www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  38. Solar PRT • 10 kw @ 100 mph • 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval  • 360 kw needed in a mile stretch  • 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun • 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun  • 720 kw / mile  • 8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  39. Solar PRT Capacity • Skytran: Two people every second • 7,200 passengers per hour • 72,000 passengers per day • Rail: • About 8,000 passengers per hour • 60,000 passengers per day • Washington, DC ~ 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile • Highway: 1.2 average occupancy • 2400 persons per lane / hour www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  40. Solar PRT Scorecard www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  41. PV Oil PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(?) PV increases at 50%/yr ? www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  42. Wake Up!!! www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

  43. www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

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