Päivi Haapasaari Samu Mäntyniemi Sakari Kuikka Fisheries and Environmental Management Group

1. PARTICIPATORY MODELLING TO ENHANCE UNDERSTANDING AND CONSENSUS WITHIN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT: THE BALTIC HERRING CASE Päivi Haapasaari Samu Mäntyniemi Sakari Kuikka Fisheries and Environmental Management Group (FEM) University of Helsinki O:13

2. JAKFISH (eu 7th programme) • Aim: examine and develop institutions, practices and tools that allow complexity, uncertainty and ambiquity to be dealt with effectively within participatory decision making processes • Develop participatory facilitation tools, like participatory modeling

3. CASE :PARTICIPATORY MODELLING OF BALTIC MAIN BASIN HERRING • Focus: Factors behind the negative biomass trend and poor growth rates of Baltic Main Basin herring stock

4. Participatorymodelling of Balticherring : Twofoldfocuses and Aims Understand herring fishery Participatory modelling • Influencing factors • Hypotheses → models • Build a meta-model? • Embed parameters provided by scientific research? • Examine, develop methodology • Validity and reliability of models? • Benefit knowledge base and management?

5. twoparts of modelling Biological system model Boundaries for herring fishery management 1. Fivemostimportantfactorsthatinfluence • Survival of eggs • Growth • Mortality 2. + or - effect? 3. Strengths of effects 4. Uncertainty of assessments? 1. Which variables? 2. Objectives? 3. Management measures? → no quantitative information

6. Modeltype : Bayesiannetworks • Qualitative part (graphical model of variables and their relationships) • Model structure based on subjective conceptualisation of problem → Structure complex systems in understandable way → Focus for discussion • Quantitative part: (probability distributions) → Uncertainty explicit → Knowledge from different sources and accuracies

7. Participationmode Stekeholders and models Modelling sessions • 6 selectedstakeholders • Researcher • Manager • Fishermanorganisation • Commercial fisherman • Environmental NGO • Individualstakeholdersseparately → 6 differentmodels • 4-6 hours • Stakeholder (modeling decisions) • Modeling expert (facilitator) • Social scientist (observer) • Documentation: record modelling, discussions, enquiry

8. Stakeholdermodels • Stakeholders had quite a similar understanding on factors influencing growth, recruitment and natural mortality (total sum of different factors not high) but more differences emerged in assessing strengths of the links → most difficult task! • Defining boundaries and components for herring fishery system easier, but different perspectives brought much variability

11. Stakeholder feedback Difficult Positive • Complexity and high uncertainty of herring fishery • Epistemic uncertainty: general lack of knowledge • Variability uncertainty: system in constant change • Improve understandin • Raise awareness • Share questions • Demonstrate views • Combine viewpoints to improve consensus • Improve communi-cation and cooperation • Bring decision-making closer to grass root level Meet each other: Go through the steps together!

12. RESEARCH CONTINUES… • Analyse, compare individual models and build meta-model with the BN tool • Present the model to stakeholders, ask • Whether they can adopt the information? Problems? • Assess how well meta-model covers important variables? • Discuss major areas of uncertainty • Analyse differences between views →update model • Consider management actions • Analyse the process!

13. SUMMARY: INCLUDING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INFORMATION TO FISHERIES ANALYSIS AND ADVICE: WHY, HOW AND BY WHOM? • Why? Improve understanding of a complex system and its uncertainties. • How? Through synthesising relevant knowledge from different stakeholders and sources through participatory modeling using BNs • By whom? Individuals from different stakeholder groups + scientific expertise of statisticians, fishery scientists, social scientists (etc.)

14. Thankyou!