1 / 17

Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off

Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off. Jim Lee, American University Innovations in Student Leadership Conference, Georgetown, February 2010. Long Term and Short Term Perspectives. Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 100 years

cana
Download Presentation

Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off Jim Lee, American University Innovations in Student Leadership Conference, Georgetown, February 2010

  2. Long Term and Short Term Perspectives • Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 100 years • Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 20 years

  3. Re-Think the World: IPCC Regions

  4. Temperature Forecasts in 2100

  5. Precipitation Forecasts in 2100

  6. Post-1945 Conflict History (Using SIPRI)

  7. Future to 2015 Conflicts (Using DOD)

  8. Hot and Cold Wars • Hot Wars War of Contraction Livelihood conflict Ancient Conflict Developing Countries • Cold Wars War of Expansion Militarized conflict New Conflict Developed Countries

  9. Climate Change and Conflict: Hot (Old) and Cold (New) Tension Belts

  10. Four Short Term Threats • 1. Moving Borders2. Cloud Seeding3. Polar Passages4. African Livelihood and Food Security

  11. 1. Moving Mountain Borders

  12. 2. Cloud Seeding Around the World (NCAR)

  13. 3. Polar Passages (U. Texas)

  14. 4a. Africa Growing Seasons (2050)

  15. 4b. Population densities in Africa

  16. In sum… • 1. Climate change will work with other social factors to create conflict. • 2. Conflict will have it’s own impetus that climate change will accelerate. • 3. Forecasting is a politically-influenced process, but there are some clear typologies of behavior. • 4. There are on-going, impending , and possible conflicts. These new confluences have already begun.

  17. Contact Information • jlee@american.edu • James R. Lee, “Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars” (Routledge, 2009) • Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) in Mandala projectshttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/index.html • Hot and Cold War Projecthttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/climatechange/hotcoldwar.html

More Related