The Pessimistic Induction

1. The Pessimistic Induction Antirealist Realist Kareem Khalifa Department of Philosophy Middlebury College History of Science

2. Overview • Core realist ideas • Realist arguments • Reference & success • Approximate truth & success: downward • Approximate truth & success: upward • Retention & convergence • Circularity objection

3. I.

4. R1

5. R2

6. R3

7. R4

8. II. Realist arguments • Empirical Success B. Convergence

9. III. Reference & success Targets P2: If the central terms in scientific theories genuinely refer, those theories will generally be empirically successful.

11. IV. Downward Path Targets P1: If scientific theories are approximately true, they will typically be empirically successful.

12. Targets P1: If scientific theories are approximately true, they will typically be empirically successful. V. Upward path

13. The Hit Parade • The crystalline spheres of ancient and medieval astronomy • The humoral theory of medicine • The effluvial theory of static electricity • ‘Castastrophist’ geology, including the Noah’s Flood • The phlogiston theory of chemistry • The caloric theory of heat • The vibratory theory of heat • The vital force theories of physiology • The electromagnetic aether • The optical aether • The theory of circular inertia • Theories of spontaneous generation

14. VI. Convergence & retention Targets…. P4: If the earlier theories in a 'mature' science are approximately true and if the central terms of those theories genuinely refer, then later more successful theories in the same science will preserve the earlier theories as limiting cases. R3: Earlier theories will be limiting cases of later theories. R4: Acceptable new theories do and should explain why their predecessors were successful insofar as they were successful.

15. VII. Circularity