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Evolution of Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone in GFDL Climate Model Simulations

John Austin and R. John Wilson. Evolution of Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone in GFDL Climate Model Simulations. AMTRAC: Description and runs. GFDL climate model, coupled chemistry 48L model, upper boundary ~ 0.002 hPa Horizontal resolution 2 x 2.5 deg. Finite Volume dynamical core

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Evolution of Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone in GFDL Climate Model Simulations

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  1. John Austin and R. John Wilson Evolution of Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone in GFDL Climate Model Simulations

  2. AMTRAC: Description and runs • GFDL climate model, coupled chemistry • 48L model, upper boundary ~ 0.002 hPa • Horizontal resolution 2 x 2.5 deg. • Finite Volume dynamical core • Comprehensive stratospheric chemistry; simplified tropospheric chemistry • 3 member ensemble (1) 1960-2005 with observed forcings (2) 1990-2100 with A1B etc. forcings and SSTs from GFDL IPCC runs.

  3. Decadally averaged total ozone, 1960-1999

  4. TOMS Decadal total ozone, 1980-2002

  5. TOMS vs. model Decadal total ozone, 1980-2002

  6. Mean Ozone trend 1980-1999

  7. Observed ozone trends 1980-1999 (Randel pers. comm., 2005)

  8. AMTRAC polar spring lower stratosphere temperature evolution 1960-1999

  9. AMTRAC polar lower stratospheric temperature evolution, 12-month running mean

  10. AMTRAC (colored lines) and observed (black line) global average temperature for 1960 to 2005 weighted in the vertical by the MSU4 weighting function.

  11. SOCOL MSU-4 equivalent temperature(25 months running mean) courtesy Schnadt et al.

  12. Conclusions • Past ozone trends are in reasonable agreement with observations for the period 1980-2000, but about 2%/decade larger than observed in the total column. • The Antarctic ozone hole developed rapidly in the model from the late 1970s and peak depletion occurred by about 2000-2005 . • Ozone recovery was slow with the Antarctic ozone hole becoming negligible by about 2065 but not disappearing entirely until 2075 or so. • Arctic ozone recovered to 1980 values by about 2040 • It is suggested that the change in ozone recovery time from 2065 at the S. Pole to 2040 at the N. Pole reflects climate change (temperature change and changes in the Brewer-Dobson ciculation).

  13. Acknowledgements • V. Ramaswamy and the GFDL Global Atmosphere Model Development Team

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