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„ CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “

„ CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “ Scientific Study on the Impacts of the Decreasing Water Level of Lake Neusiedl, Austria. International Congress “Global Climate Change and Environmental Effects” October 18-20, Konya, Turkey Monika Schönerklee

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„ CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “

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  1. „CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT “ Scientific Study on the Impacts of the Decreasing Water Level of Lake Neusiedl, Austria International Congress “Global Climate Change and Environmental Effects” October 18-20, Konya, Turkey Monika Schönerklee Deputy Head of Water Department Austrian Research Centers GmbH – ARC (www.arcs.ac.at) 2444 Seibersdorf, Austria Monika.schoenerklee@arcs.ac.at

  2. CONTENT OF PRESENTATION • Background and objectives • Climate change forecasts und lake water level scenarios for the Lake Neusiedl • Occurrence probabilities • Water surface areas and water depths • Types of use and limitations for the lake water level scenarios • Tourism • Retail trade • Fishery • Etc. • Effects on agriculture • Economic analysis (NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland) of the selected scenarios • Regional effects on gross value added • Regional effects on employment situation • Summary, conclusion and perspectives

  3. Background • Lake Neusiedl, is situated in the border region between Austria and Hungary, between the foothills of the Eastern Alps and the Pannonian plain • Endorheic lake with a total area of about 320 km² of which 180 km² are covered by reed, and with an average depth of 1.2 m • This area is counted among the driest areas of Austria with an annual precipitation of 500-700 mm • Lake area has been declared as UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Area • Tourism (especially sailing) is an important regional economic factor • Climate change forecasts for the region expect an increase of the annual average temperatures with a probable decrease of yearly precipitation Lake Neusiedl

  4. 2003: 311 mm Lake hydrology and study objectives • Water balance of the Lake Neusiedl is dominated by precipitation (500-700 mm/a)and evapotranspiration (no relevant inflow and outflow) • Fluctuations in seasonal distribution of precipitation • Significant deficits in precipitation and the characteristic high evapotranspiration in the last years caused low lake water levels • Climate change forecasts expect more frequent dry periods which could lead to a contiuous drying of the lake • Observed low lake levels showed first negative effects on tourism (especially sailing) which is an important regional economic factor. • Objectives of the study: • Development of realistic scenarios • Analyse the (negative) impacts of low lake water levels on tourism and different economic sectors of the Lake Neusiedl region Average water level: ~ 115,50 m a.s.l. Maximum water level: ~ 116,00 m a.s.l. Minimum water level: 115,05 m a.s.l.

  5. Climate change forecasts for the Lake Neusiedl region Increase of annual average temperature: • 2020 (period 2010-2030): +1,9°C • 2040 (period 2030-2050): +2,5°C • Warming is most significant during winter and summer Source: BOKU Study „Auswirkungen einer Klimaänderung auf den Wasserhaushalt des Neusiedler Sees“ (2005) Change of annual precipitation: • Forecasts show higher uncertainties • Bandwidth of -20 % to +20 % (-5 % to 0 % most probable)

  6. Selection of 4 relevant lake water levels scenarios Further use-specific analysis and assessment for the two (three) low lake water level scenarios for which significant impacts on various tourism and economic sectors can be expected

  7. Climate scenarios – Occurence probabilities and average durations below the respective levels Source: BOKU Studie „Auswirkungen einer Klimaänderung auf den Wasserhaushalt des Neusiedler Sees“ (2005)

  8. GIS Analysis: Water surface areas for the selected lake water levels 115.50 m a.s.l. 115.20 m a.s.l. Use of digital terrain model for the lake and the surrounding area: • 115.50 m a.s.l.: nearly the entire reed belt is impounded • 115.20 m a.s.l : only about 50% of the reed belt are impounded • 114.70 m a.s.l : nearly the entire reed belt area dries up 115.00 m a.s.l. 114.70 m a.s.l.

  9. Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (own GIS analysis based on Bacsatyai et al., 1997) Lake water levels 115.00 m a.s.l. and 114.70 m a.s.l.: • Significant increase of extremely shallow lake areas (< 1.2 m) mainly for the north and north-western part of the lake • In these areas higher water depths are only reached in more than 100 meters distance from the shore.

  10. Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (Detail view of the northern lake shore Neusiedl)

  11. Distribution of water depths for the selected lake water levels (Detail view of the eastern lake shore Podersdorf)

  12. Sector-wise analysis of limitations, estimation of turnover decrease • Determination of turnover decrease is based on the following approach: • Analysis of use limitations for different lake water levels (mapping of water depth distribution and lake water surface) • Interviews and expert opinions • Analysis of two existing tourist surveys (questionnaires) (T-MONA, 2005) • Analysis of tourism statistics (over-night stays, yearly distribution, communities etc.) (WKO, 2006, Burgenländische Statistiken: Tourismus, 2005) • Consideration of lake water level hydrograph and occurrence probability of the selected scenarios • Determination of bandwidths of turnover decrease which are appropriate to consider a number of uncertainty factors • Calculation of agricultural decrease is based on climate forecasts only (not on the lake water levels) The selected band-widths include: • Validity of climate change forecasts and natural climate variability • Definite time and duration of low lake water levels, its occurrence probabilities and consequence effects in the following years • Different tourism characteristics of the lake municipalities and the general tourist behaviour.

  13. Lake Neusiedl area – Types of use and limitations due to low lake levels The number of guests visiting this region will be a result of its attractiveness for different touristic uses: • Summer tourism (Bathing) • Extremely shallow water depths in the shore areas in general, respectively in the bathing areas • Swimming is only possible with greater distance from the lake shore (especially for the lake water levels 115.0 m a.s.l. and 114.7m a.s.l. • Bathing areas on the northern lake shore (Neusiedl, Weiden, Breitenbrunn) are most signifcantly affected • Water sports (Sailing, surfing etc.) • A minimum water depth of 1.2-1.3 m is required for sailing conditions – with regard to the currently used boats on the lake (considering local wind, waves and mud transport conditions) • Water depths < 1m – sailing is limited to only a few boat categories • Liners/ferry boats • Can be operated without problems for lake water levels above 115.2 m a.s.l. • At lake lavels of about 115.0 m a.s.l. only limited use • For lake levels below 114.7 m a.s.l. not possible any more (using the current type of ships)

  14. Lake Neusiedl area – Types of use and limitations due to low lake levels • Bycicle tourism, cultural tourism and retail trade • Due to the low lake water levels and the decline of over-night stays as well as day visitors a decrase of retail trade activites is to be expected. • Fishery • Extremely low water levels will cause a drying up of the reed belt as important living space for young fish – negative influence on fishery • Strong dependence on funding measures (Besatzmaßnahmen) • Economic interrelation with local gastronomy • Reed culture • Intermittent lowering of the water level will cause only minor economic effects on this sector

  15. Tourism – Guest surveys and guest motivation • Percentage of overnight stays during summer > 88 % (clear peak of overnight stays in August) • Motivation of guests focusses on relaxing, bathing and water sports (according to guest surveys by the local tourism agency) • Occurence of low lake water levels mostly during late summer (August/September)  Decrease of overnight stays and day-visitors is to be expected for the low lake water levels during summer period

  16. Correlations between climate and agricultural yield for the lake Neusiedl area • Question: Which influence of climate variability on the agricultural yield of the most important crops could be identified for the last 9 years? • Approach: Estimation of the decrease of agricultural production was based on detailed climatic and agro-statistical analysis of the period 1997-2005 laying a specific focus on the dry year 2003 (corresponds with the climate scenario of the lake water level 115.0 m a.s.l.) • Results: Functions for estimating the yield decrease in relation to temperature and precipitation changes • Application: Economic analysis of climate scenarios which also influence the lake water level

  17. Regression model for the dependence of wheat yield on precipitation and temperature in the north of Burgenland Agricultural production is directly affected by the growth-relevant climatic conditions (scenarios) which determine the lake water level • Yield functions of eight relevant agricultural crops (including confidence intervals) • Estimation of decrease of agricultural production (potential losses only refer to annual crops) High percentage of sandy soils which are subject to drying up and with high irrigation demand

  18. Estimation of the economic value of potential yield decrease * Source: http://www.agrarstatistik.at/

  19. Estimation of decrease in turnover (bandwidths) for the selected water level scenarios for the NUTS3 Region Nordburgenland

  20. Economic analysis of the various affected sector Regional economic analysis of potential effects by using the method of multi-regionalinput-output analysis: • Captures the linkages of the supply and reference structures of the different economic sectors • Determines direct (within the sector), indirect (on sectors from which services have been supplied) and induced (due to income changes) effects on • Value added • Employment • Calculations were carried out for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland (Districts: Neusiedl, Rust, Eisenstadt, Eisenstadt-Umgebung, Mattersburg)

  21. Economic analysis – Status Quo Gross value added (EURO) Total gross value added of affected sectors ~ 278 Mio EURO Source: Statistik Austria, analysis and calculations by ExAqua r ten Zahlen zu ausländischen und inländischen Besuchern in der Region, getrennt nach Übernachtungsgästen und Tagesgästen. Die gesamte Bruttowertschöpfung in der Region im Bereich des B eherbergungs - und Gaststättenwesens stammt aus der multiregionalen Input - Output - Tabelle (erstellt von ESCE auf Basis von Daten der Statistik Austria). Ergänzend dazu wurde, auf Basis der in der Gä s tebefragung enthaltenen Daten zu den Gästeausgaben, hochger echnet, wie hoch die Umsätze und die Wertschöpfung durch die Gäste sind. Daraus wurde eine entsprechende Aufteilung der Bruttowertschöpfung des ÖNACE Sektors 55 nach Übernachtungs - und Tagesgästen berechnet. In der Kategorie „Sommertourismus (Übernachtunge n)“ sind sämtliche Ausgaben von (in der Region) übe r nachtenden Gästen während des Zeitraums Mai bis Oktober enthalten. Das beinhaltet primär die Ausgaben für Unterkunft und Ve r pflegung (diese umfassen bereits 78,3 % der Gesamtausgaben), darüber hinaus aber auch Ausgaben für diverse Einkäufe am U r laubsort, für Dienstleistungen am Urlaubsort, Transport am Urlaubsort und diverse Nebenausgaben. In der Kategorie „Sommertouri s mus (Tagesgäste)“ fallen keine Ausgaben für Unterkunft und geringere Ausgaben für Verpfl egung an. Die BWS der Kategorie „Seebäder“ wurde auf Basis von Primärdatenerhebungen durch ESCE bei den Seebädern und der 2 Neusie d lersee Tourismus GmbH berechnet. Die BWS der Kategorie „Linienschifffahrt“ entspricht dem Wert für das Nordburgenland aus d er multiregionalen Input - Output - Tabelle 3 (IOT), da es im Nordburgenland keine andere Linienschifffahrt, abgesehen von jener in der Region Neusiedlersee, gibt. Die BWS der Kategorie „Einzelhandel“ entspricht dem Wert für das Nordburgenland aus der multireg ionalen IOT. 4 Die BWS der Kategorie „Landwirtschaft“ beruht auf den Daten der multiregionalen IOT. 5 Die BWS der Kategorie „Radverleih“ basiert auf einer Erhebung von den verliehenen Rädern pro Tag der Radverleihe und den 6 durchschnittlichen Kosten pro Rad und Tag.

  22. Economic Analysis – Assessment of the Lake Water Level Scenarios (Value added) Decrease of gross value added per year for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland: Decrease of 1.46 % of total gross value added within the region Nordburgenland, 15% of concerned sectors Most affected sectors: • Tourism, hotel and restaurant business • Agriculture • Retail trade

  23. Economic Analysis – Assessment of the Lake Water Level Scenarios (Employment) Decrease of employment (full-time equivalents) per year for the NUTS 3 Region Nordburgenland: Employment decrease of 3.8 % within the region Nordburgenland Most affected sectors: • Agriculture • Tourism, hotel and restaurant business • Retail trade

  24. Economic analysis – Results • Gross value added and employment situation are directly related to the lake water level scenarios • Water level of 114.7 m a.s.l. – compared to a water level of 115.0 m a.s.l. – would create an even • 3 times higher decrease of value added and a • 2.5 times higher employment decrease • The strongest affected sectors are: • Tourism, hotel and restaurant business • More distinctive decrease for overnight stays than for day-visitors • Negative image of a dry year with low lake level can negatively affect the following years • Agriculture: • Climate change shows significant effects on agriculture, however, not related to the lake water levels • Retail trade Calculated gross value added and employment decreases correspond only to the year of low lake water level occurrence, potential consequences for the subsequent years are not considered.

  25. Summary of Economic Analysis – Gross value added * Values not considering agriculture

  26. Summary of Economic Analysis – Employment situation * Values not considering agriculture

  27. Summary and Conclusions • Low lake water levels will occur more frequently (due to climate change forecasts) • Results of economic analysis show significant decrease of gross value added and employment situation for the region Nordburgenland, resp. Lake Neusiedl region for the lake water level scenarios 115.0 m a.s.l. and 114.7 m a.s.l. • Economic forecasts are strongly dependent on the following factors of uncertainty: • Climate change forecasts and climate variability • Time and duration of low lake water level conditions • Occurence probabilities – Negative effects on the following years • General tourism behaviour

  28. Ways forward – Options for the Future Which measures are feasible and appropriate in order to counteract to the negative economic forecasts? • Tourism strategies • Reducing the dependence of tourism on the lake water level by intensifying further tourism offers like wellness, culture, wine, cycling etc. • Intensifying quality tourism (investments in tourism infrastructure and employees). • Extending the tourist high season to spring and early summer respectively autumn where higher lake water levels occur, targeting year-round tourism. • Addressing new target groups (in addition to bathing and water sport tourists) and international tourists. • Water management strategies • Artificial stabilization of the lake water balance: Currently two options are discussed, which either intend to use ground water (bank filtration from the Danube river), or water from the river Raab on the Hungarian side. • Optimisation of irrigation management and use of draught resistant cultures in agriculture. • Development of a transboundary water management plan for the Lake Neusiedl region (e.g. INTERREG) • …………. • Assessment and coordination of different options with regard to environment, economomy and efficiency (Multicriteria – Assessment)

  29. The Austrian Research Centers

  30. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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