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NUMBERS IN ACTION: CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY

NUMBERS IN ACTION: CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY. OUTLINE. Purpose: Discussion of Practical Applications Democratization in Latin America Legacies of Independence Cycles and Trends Global and Comparative Perspectives Democratic Dominoes? Subregional Variations and the Colossus of the North

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NUMBERS IN ACTION: CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY

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  1. NUMBERS IN ACTION:CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY

  2. OUTLINE • Purpose: Discussion of Practical Applications • Democratization in Latin America • Legacies of Independence • Cycles and Trends • Global and Comparative Perspectives • Democratic Dominoes? • Subregional Variations and the Colossus of the North • Lessons over Time: Earlier Experience • Democracy and Instability

  3. Key Question: What’s new about the current wave of democracy? N countries = 19 N years = 101 N country-years = 1,919 Key Concept: Distinction between (a) quality of elections, and (b) protection of civil liberties—i.e., between “procedural” and “substantive” components of democracy.

  4. CATEGORIES OF ELECTORAL REGIMES Electoral democracy = free and fair elections Semidemocracy = elections free but not fair; or, effective power not vested in winner of elections Competitive oligarchy = elections fair but not free; candidates restricted to socio-economic elite and suffrage restricted to minority of population Autocracy/authoritarianism = no elections, or elections neither free nor fair.

  5. MODES OF AGGREGATION: • By year • By country • Or, in other types of research project, by such characteristics as (a) age, (b) academic class, (c) region, (d) parents’ occupation, etc.

  6. ON LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT • Nominal variable (for each country-year) • Interval-scale variable (N or % countries—or % people-- within each category for each year) • Note: Quality of electoral system not here considered as “ordered nominal” variable—but could it be?

  7. Figure 3. The Path of Democratic Change, 1900-2000

  8. KEY ISSUES FOR STUDY OF CYCLES OF DEMOCRACY: Approaching concept of “democracy” Disaggregating concept into component parts (i.e., elections, representation, citizens’ rights, provision of social justice and/or material benefits, etc.) Challenge: Obtaining valid and reliable measurements

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