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Wilfried Winiwarter

Treatment of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories: General approach and specific experience for Austria. Wilfried Winiwarter. IPCC Expert Group on Good Practice in Inventory Preparation. CHAPTERS 1. Introduction 2. Energy 3. Industrial Processes 4. Agriculture 5. Waste

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Wilfried Winiwarter

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  1. Treatment of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories: General approach and specific experience for Austria Wilfried Winiwarter

  2. IPCC Expert Group on Good Practice in Inventory Preparation CHAPTERS 1. Introduction 2. Energy 3. Industrial Processes 4. Agriculture 5. Waste 6. Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice 7. Methodological Choice and Recalculation 8. Quality Assurance and Quality Control ANNEXES Annex 1. Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Analysis Annex 2. Verification Annex 3. Glossary Annex 4. List of Participants

  3. Issues relevant to uncertainty calculation • Quality Assurance and Quality Control(procedural recommendations) • Methodological Choice and Recalculation(selection criteria for key sources to focus resources) • Verification (quantitative checks and comparison with ambient air) • Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Analysis (mathematical background for uncertainty calculations) • Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice (from uncertain inputs to resulting uncertainties)

  4. Uncertainty calculations for Austria • Input uncertainties: • Statistical differences • Reported variation • Expert judgement • Estimation • Treatment of systematic errors • Magnitude of unknown systematic errors assumed to be of the same size as errors identified • Monte-Carlo approach • impressive • easy to operate • allows handling of co-variances • supports sensitivity analysis

  5. Sensitivity studies • Input uncertainties total uncertainty influenced by few inputs requirement to deep investigation limited • Uncertainty by gas similar variances for CO2, CH4, N2O when decreasing variance of any gas  little change to overall uncertainty when increasing variance of any gas  increase of overall uncertainty • Robustness to assumptions onprobability density function

  6. International comparisons UK 4 17 230 24 20 13 19 4 USA 3 36 120 25 .. .. 13 .. CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Total Total trend (1990-2010) Austria 2 48 90 .. .. .. 10 5 Norway 3 22 200 50 40 5 21 4 Netherlands 3 17 34 41 100 50 4.4 .. all uncertainties in % (2s), trend in %-points

  7. Conclusions • It is possible to assess the uncertainty of national GHG emission inventories • Personal judgement (of experts ...) does have influence on uncertainty estimates • Scenario analysis and sensitivity runs allow to assess this influence and to understand / evaluate it • Intuitive aspect gains weight when uncertainties are larger

  8. Acknowledgements: Kristin Rypdal for setting the concept into the perspective of IPCC; Environmental Federal Agency (UBA) Vienna, specifically Klaus Radunsky; Rudi Orthofer for important comments and ideas; and the experts willing to contribute to our survey ....

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