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Teton County Travel Model

Teton County Travel Model. Model Application for the Tribal Trail Extension. Tribal Trail Stakeholder Committee. Sean McAtee. July 25, 2019. Outline. Travel Model 101 (recap) Forecast Year Data & Assumptions Model Application for Tribal Trail Next Steps. Travel Modeling 101 – Recap.

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Teton County Travel Model

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  1. Teton County Travel Model Model Application for the Tribal Trail Extension Tribal Trail Stakeholder Committee Sean McAtee July 25, 2019

  2. Outline • Travel Model 101 (recap) • Forecast Year Data & Assumptions • Model Application for Tribal Trail • Next Steps

  3. Travel Modeling 101 – Recap

  4. What is a Travel Demand Model? • A tool to provide travel information that can aid in planning for transportation improvements • A way of organizing your assumptions • A program that can "predict" existing travel demand and forecast travel demand for future scenarios Modeled World Real world

  5. The Four Steps Transportation Networks Transportation Supply Traffic Analysis Zones and Data Transportation Demand Trip Generation How many trips? Trip Distribution Where will they go? Feedback Mode Choice What mode? Trip Assignment What route? Detailed Results Maps & Statistics Forecasts

  6. Key Terms • Network • Roadway system • Transit system • Bike facilities • Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) • Represent households and jobs • Based on Census and parcel data

  7. Model Validation • Overall model volumes within 1% of total counts • Match industry standard validation metrics • Root Mean Square Error • Count/VMT Ratios • R-Squared Values • Margin of Error • Traffic counts vary from day to day, week to week • Travel model represents an average weekday in the summer, winter, or off-peak season

  8. Model Validation Overall Validation Validation by Facility Type

  9. Forecast Year Data & Assumptions

  10. How Was Growth Projected Job Growth 2002-2016 2.1% CAGR 553 Jobs per Year Further extrapolation to 2040 Housing Growth 2002-2018 1.6% CAGR 151 Units per Year

  11. Household Growth by TAZ • Map shows new households per acre • Generalized broad-brush assumptions • Shown at the TAZ level

  12. Employment Growth by TAZ • Map shows new employees per acre • Generalized broad-brush assumptions • Shown at the TAZ level

  13. Local Households, Jobs, & enrollment

  14. Testing Land Use Scenarios • Changes in Households, Employment, or School Enrollment • Baseline forecasts as described above • Changes can be tested at the TAZ level for individual zones or groups of zones • Changes need to be significant • Roughly 100+ households, employees, or students

  15. Model Application – Tribal Trail Road Extension

  16. Tribal Trail Road ExtensionProject as Modeled • Extend collector to connect to WY-22 • Speed and capacity characteristics identical to the existing Tribal Trail section • Collector Street • Speed Limit 35

  17. 2016 AnalysisChange in Traffic

  18. 2040 AnalysisChange in Traffic

  19. Tribal Trail Road (2040)Who uses the new extension?

  20. Next Steps

  21. Next Steps • More Information • Analyze change in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) • Consider potential land use changes • Simulation Model • Detailed operational analysis • Intersection/interchange design • Access alternatives • Traffic calming and intersection control

  22. Thank You

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