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The Important Role of Satellite Data in Advancing the Weather Forecasts

Dr . Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers for Environmental Prediction Sixth FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Data Users' Workshop Boulder, CO October 30, 2012. The Important Role of Satellite Data in Advancing the Weather Forecasts. Outline. “The Weatherman is not a Moron” What NCEP Does

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The Important Role of Satellite Data in Advancing the Weather Forecasts

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  1. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director National Centers for Environmental Prediction Sixth FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Data Users' Workshop Boulder, CO October 30, 2012 The Important Role of Satellite Data in Advancing the Weather Forecasts

  2. Outline • “The Weatherman is not a Moron” • What NCEP Does • How is NCEP Measured • How has NCEP Changed • Status of Central Computer System • Use of Satellite Data – Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Advancing GPSRO in NCEP Models (COSMIC2) • New Building • Summary

  3. September 9, 2012 IN THE HOCUS POCUS REALM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, WEATHER FORECASTING STANDS OUT AS AN AREA OF GENUINE, MEASURABLE PROGRESS. YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE MAY DIFFER. BY NATE SILVER THE WEATHERMAN IS NOT A MORON

  4. From the inside, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction looked like a cross between a submarine command center and a Goldman Sachs trading floor. Quoted from “The Weatherman is not a Moron” New York Times Magazine, September 9, 2012

  5. “The Weatherman is not a Moron” - Nate Silver, New York Times • Weather prediction has progressed when most other predictions have failed • Progress can be “measured”/verified in a quantitative way • Prediction capabilities include uncertainty and have already been integrated into key decision support • Actually goes as far as stating the NWS does the best job in conveying uncertainty in forecast products

  6. What NCEP Does

  7. Locations of NCEP Centers Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center

  8. Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings What Does NCEP Do? “From the Sun to the Sea” • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations 8

  9. How is NCEP Measured

  10. 14 April 2012 Great Plains Outbreak • 60 Tornadoes (1 EF4, 3 EF3 & 3 EF2) • Outlook first issued 7 days in advance; Moderate Risk 3 days in advance; High Risk 2 days in advance (only 2nd time) • NWS average warning lead time (Tornadoes) : 13 minutes • 6 Fatalities in Woodward, OK near midnight • FEMA/State/local emergency managers engaged starting 3 days before the event

  11. 14 April Great Plains Outbreak • “Anyone tuned into a television or weather service last week would have been hard pressed to miss the news that dangerous storms were brewing in the Midwest. Clearly, these storms were meant to be taken seriously.”  -- Kansas City Star • “The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., which specializes in tornado forecasting, took the unusual step of issuing a stern warning about the oncoming storms more than 24 hours in advance.”  -- Christian Science Monitor • “I really think people took the warnings and they took them very seriously. We had more notice on this system than you normally do. You normally are looking at a couple of hours’ notice. Well, this one had almost two days’ notice.”  -- Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback • “We'd been on the lookout for it for three days. We were as ready as we could have been.”-- Larry Hill, Thurman , IA (AP) resident whose home was destroyed

  12. Snowmageddon: All Charts Valid 12Z February 6, 2010 Surface Analysis 7 day forecast 6 day forecast 5 day forecast 1 day forecast 4 day forecast 3 day forecast 2 day forecast Storm system predicted 7+ days in advance; potential for heavy snow (up to 3 feet) 3-5 days in advance States implement COOP plans, airlines cancel flights, retail industry pre-stocks shelves

  13. States declare emergency days before snow Airlines cancel thousands of flights at least a day in advance, reduced recovery time after the storm Stores adjust to optimize retail sales entire week before the storm Low to no impact on GNP1 Federal disaster declared; facilitates snow removal, and faster recovery! Impacts “Snowmageddon” 1Some studies (Liscio Reports from 1993-1996) show that major NE snowstorms in the 1990s negatively impacted economic indices for months after the event, including GNP.

  14. How has NCEP Changed • Collaborative forecast • Increasing reliance on multi-model ensembles • Test beds • Enhanced R2O with larger research community

  15. Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the WFOs • SPC/WFO • Watch “by county” • HPC/WFO • Winter Weather Desks • Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD • Alaska Desk • AWC/WFO/CWSU • Collaborative Convective Forecast Product • CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC • Hazard Assessment • Seasonal outlooks/CTB • OPC/WFO • Near shore  High seas • HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR • Unified Surface Analysis! • SWPC – AWC – AR • Solar/Aviation Products

  16. Increasing Reliance on Ensembles“The Next Revolution in Weather Forecasts” • Multi-model ensembles now used across entire spectrum • Climate: NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) now used within EUROPSIP Partnership (ECMWF, UKMet, MeteoFrance) • Medium Range: GEFS part of North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • Short Range: Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) – based entirely on WRF cores • Mesoscale – experimental Hi Res ensembles applied to tornado outbreaks

  17. Storm Prediction Center - Storm Scale Ensembles 6 hour ensemble of max Updraft Helicity (UH) valid ending 00Z April 28 SPC SSEO Accumulated over 24-hr period 12 – 36 hrs into forecast 6 hour smoothed ensemble neighborhood (40 km) probability of UH > 25 m2/s2 valid ending 00Z 28 April OU-CAPS Storm Scale Ensemble Hazardous Weather Testbed SSEO – 7 model Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity SPC SSEO

  18. EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPC Climate Test Bed NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

  19. Working Better with the Research Community:Recent Data Assimilation Upgrade (ESRL, GSFC, UOK, EMC) • Use of GOES-13 and GOES-15 sounder data • Improved Quality Control of NASA AIRS data • Improved observation errors for NOAA SBUV (Ozone) data • Fewer Dropouts • Improved tropical cyclone forecasts • GSI Hybrid EnKF-3DVAR Upgrade – May 22, 2012 • EnKF hybrid system • New version of Forecast model • Use of NPP Advanced Microwave Technology Sensor (ATMS) – 7 months after launch • Use of GPSRO bending angles (replace refractivity) GFS hybrid 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC GFS operational 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC EnKF Hybrid GDAS Package Parallel - Northern Hemisphere Current SREF Mean ECMWF 48 h forecast verifying 5/13/12 1200 UTC Verifying analysis 5/13/12 1200 UTC

  20. Status of Central Computer System

  21. Computing Capability “reliable, timely and accurate” • Current computers • IBM Power6 • 73.1 trillion calculations/sec • 2 billion observations/day • 27.8 million model fields/day • Primary: Gaithersburg, MD • Backup: Fairmont, WV • Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes • Next generation computer: by Oct 2013 • IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux • 208 trillion calc/sec • Primary: Reston, VA • Backup: Orlando, FL Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page 2011 2011 Web access to models as they run on the CCS 2001 2005 2009 2007 2003

  22. NOAA’s Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern Gulf of Mex • Columbia R. • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMMB Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM, NMMB Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Refresh for Aviation 24 24 NOAH Land Surface Model

  23. Importance of the JCSDA: Helping to solidify the R2O process for expanded use of satellite data in operational model systems

  24. Circa 1990s • Increase use of satellite radiances in operational model • No standards for fast forward radiative transfer scheme • Taking 2+ years to incorporate operational satellite data into operational numerical models (over 40% of expected lifetime) • Very little (if any) use of research satellite data in operational models • Very little exchange among various operational centers, especially within the U.S.; Basically, a nonfunctional R2O process

  25. National Research Council Report (2000): Valley of Death

  26. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Valley of Death Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Operations R&D Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

  27. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Valley of Death Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT : Operations R&D Delivery . Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

  28. NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS NASA/Earth Science Division NOAA/OAR US Navy/Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and NRL US Air Force/Director of Weather JCSDA Partners, Vision, Mission Vision: An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction Mission: …to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models.

  29. JCSDA History • NASA/NOAA collaboration (Uccellini, Einaudi, Purdom, MacDonald) initiated in 2000 • Concern about US leadership in satellite data technology and instrumentation not replicated in user applications, e.g. NWP • GMAO (DAO), NCEP and STAR (ORA) – first participants on technical level • Emphasis on balanced approach involving • Modeling • Computing • Observational data • Need to provide “O2R” infrastructure to research communities • Inclusion of DoD (NRL Monterey and AFWA) triggered by NPOESS IPO sponsorship of JCSDA starting in 2002 • Science priorities established by Advisory Board • First permanent Director hired in 2004 (John Le Marshall) • Memorandum of Agreement at Associate Administrative Level signed May 2008 • NASA/NOAA provide first JCSDA computer in 2011

  30. JCSDA Science Priorities • Radiative Transfer Modeling (CRTM) • Preparation for assimilation of data from new instruments • Clouds and precipitation • Assimilation of land surface observations • Assimilation of ocean surface observations • Atmospheric composition; chemistry and aerosols Overarching goal: Help the operational services improve the quality of their prediction products via improved and accelerated use of satellite data and related research Driving the activities of the Joint Center since 2001, approved by the Science Steering Committee

  31. JCSDA accomplishments • Common assimilation infrastructure (NOAA, GMAO, AFWA) • Community radiative transfer model - CRTM (all partners) • Numerous new satellite data assimilated operationally, e.g. MODIS (winds and AOD), AIRS and IASI hyperspectral IR radiances, GPSRO sensors (COSMIC, GRAS, GRACE), SSMI/S, Windsat, Jason-2,… • Bending angle assimilation for GPSRO • Advanced sensors tested for operational readiness, e.g. ASCAT, MLS, SEVIRI (radiances),… • Ongoing methodology improvement for sensors already assimilated, e.g. AIRS, GPSRO, SSMIS,… • Improved physically based SST analysis • Adjoint sensitivity diagnostics • Applied to GSI/GEOS5 by GMAO • Applied to FNMOC by NRL • Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system (GSFC, NOAA, AFWA)

  32. JCSDA accomplishments (II) • OSE capability illustrating importance of satellite data • OSSE capability in support of COSMIC-2, JPSS, GOES-R, Decadal Survey and other missions • Comprehensive suite of data impact experiments for all major observing systems using NCEP GFS • New supercomputer at GSFC (jointly funded by NASA and NOAA, installed and operated by NASA for the Joint Center) • Part of NOAA/NESDIS-funded supercomputer (S4) located at UW Madison available for JCSDA investigators • Hand-off to NCEP of NPP ATMS data assimilation capability (collaboration between EMC, NESDIS, NASA, JCSDA); implemented in operations on May 22 2012, 7 months after launch • Science Enhancements to CRTM • Aerosols and impacts on sounding channels • Surface Emissivity for microwave and infrared bands • State of the art Line-by-line calculation capability • OSEs/Adjointstudies conducted on value of satellite data

  33. Satellite Data Used Operationally • AVHRR SST • AVHRR vegetation fraction • AVHRR surface type • Multi-satellite snow cover • Multi-satellite sea ice • SBUV/2 ozone profile & total ozone • MODIS* polar winds • GPS Radio Occultation • COSMIC, METOP/GRAS, GRACE,* SAC-C*, TerraSAR-X* • SSMIS • OMI* • MSG Seviri • HIRS sounder radiances • AMSU-A sounder radiances • AMSU-B sounder radiances • ATMS sounder radiances • AIRS* sounder radiances • IASI sounder radiances • GOES sounder radiances • GOES, Meteosat, GMS winds • GOES precipitation rate • SSM/I precipitation rates • TRMM* precipitation rates • SSM/I ocean surface wind speeds • ERS-2* ocean surface wind vectors • 1Quikscat* ocean surface wind vectors  ASCAT • JASON ocean surface altimetry * Indicates Research Satellite or Sensor 1No longer available As of September, 2012

  34. Assessing the Value of GPSRO Data Through AdjointStudies Conducted at: • GMAO • NRL

  35. Impact of Various Observing Systems in GSI/GEOS-5 01 Sep – 31 Dec 2010 00z • Total Impact • AMSU-A radiances have • the largest impact globally, • but conventional data • (raob, aircraft) still very • important. GPSRO now a • significant contributor. • Impact Per Observation • Raobs get large weight in • the analysis and have large • IPO. Ship obs are few, but • are located where there • are few other in-situ data. Total Impact beneficial Impact Per Observation

  36. FSD diagnostics (Gelaro, 5th WMO Impact Workshop, Sedona 2012) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/obsens/fnmoc/obsens_main_od.html http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/forecasts/systems/fp/obs_impact/ Much larger relative impact of AMVs in Navy system compared to NASA’s. Note that IASI has moved up in NASA system compared to 2010 (previous slide), and GPSRO has moved down as COSMIC ages/degrades.

  37. Operational ECMWF system September to December 2008. Averaged over all model layers and entire global atmosphere. % contribution of different observations to reduction in forecast error. Note: 1) Sounders on Polar Satellites reduce forecast error most 2) Results are relevant for other NWP Centers, including NWS/NCEP Forecast error contribution (%) Courtesy: Carla Cardinali and Sean Healy, ECMWF

  38. GPSRO Influence on Other Observations • GPSRO observations are unbiased • Can be assimilated w/o correction • Help identify biases in OTHER observations • Help identify biases in models • GPSRO has sharper vertical weighting • Therefore has fine vertical resolution • Detects vertical structures not visible to radiometric sounders • Particularly beneficial in resolving the tropopause

  39. COSMIC 2 Upcoming Opportunities/Challenges • Thousands of soundings per day • Implemented along with Hybrid DA : Improved use of GPSRO • use of Bending angle rather than Refractivity • New and improved forward model to reduce singularities • Data used up to 50km from 30km for refractivities • Improved quality control (much less data rejected) • Leveraging total system by research community COSMIC Occultations–3 Hrs Coverage COSMIC-2 Occultations – 3 Hrs Coverage Observation = QC  DA  Models  Post Processing Prediction System

  40. From COSMIC 1 to COSMIC 2 Comparison of sounding distribution over three hour periods between COSMIC and fully implemented COSMIC 2 is shown. • With COSMIC II • 8000-12000 profiles per day using GPS and GALILEO as sources • Average profile within 45 minutes • Full vertical profile – deeper into lower troposphere • Still Will Feature • All weather • Day and night • No bias or drift • For Space Weather: • 0.001 TEC Unit relative • Electron Density Profile 10% • S4 index uncertainty – 0.1 • (Scintillation) • Requires < 15 mins data latency for Space Wx situational awareness.

  41. COSMIC 2 Applications for Space Weather • Situational Awareness - Specification of real time ionosphericTotal Electron Content(GPS signal delay) and spatial extent, duration, and intensity of scintillation (GPS signal loss-of-lock) are top priorities for NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. • Data latency of COSMIC 1 prohibits its use in current real/time space weather applications • Modeling - Assimilation of near real/time (latency between 15 to 60 minutes) line-of-sight electron content from COSMIC 2 in empirical (US-TEC) and coupled physics-based numerical ionospheric forecast models (IPE) and whole atmosphere forecast models (WAM). • Retrospective studies using COSMIC 1 profiles clearly demonstrate its value, particularly the global coverage, compared to other traditional types of ionospheric data streams.

  42. COSMIC Supports Whole Atmosphere Model Development Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-Electrodynamics (IPE) Model Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM=extended GFS) • WAM=extended GFS has been developed for NWP & SWx applications. • WAM includes neutral-plasma coupling in the upper atmosphere. • COSMIC provides ionospheric plasma information. • COSMIC data is used to validate the ionosphere model. Neutral Dynamics & Energetics Ionospheric Plasma dynamics & Electrodynamics Neutral-Plasma Coupling

  43. Other Upcoming Satellite Systems • Research satellite being tested: Aquarius for sea surface salinity • Operational • JPSS: ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS • GOESR: ABI, 15 minute full disc coverage • Research • Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) satellite (launch date: 2014) • Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite (launch date: 2014) • International • China FengYun-3 (FY3) satellite (launch date: 2013) • COSMIC2 • First launch , 6 satellites, early 2016 • Second launch (not funded yet), 6 satellites, polar orbits, 2018.

  44. ABI Spectral Bands ABI Scans (in 30 min) Full Disk (2X 15 min) CONUS (6X 5 min) Mesoscale (60X 30 sec) GOES-R ABI offers more bands, more often

  45. New Building

  46. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD housing 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Includes 464 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit • Move completed Aug 2012

  47. Main Entrance Photo Credit: UofMD Atrium Operations Area Outdoor Terrace

  48. Summary

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