EVIDENCE-BASED TARGETING

1. EVIDENCE-BASED TARGETING A New Approach to Juvenile Crime Prevention

2. “Evidence-Based Models” Guide HOW You Serve “Evidence-Based Targeting” Guides WHO You Serve

3. Need to Target Limited Resources • Option 1: Wait Until Kids Get Arrested • Option 2: MOVE UPSTREAM

4. 54 Risk Factors! • Being Male • Being Poor • Being a Gang Member

5. We Need Weighted Risk Factors

6. The Standard Approach • Survey Your Community • Identify the Most Common Risk Factors • Choose Which of the Most Common Risk Factors to Target

7. The Standard Approach is WEAK!

8. To Maximize Effectiveness • DON’T Target the Most Common Risk Factors • Target Those UNCOMMON Risk Factors (Or Combinations of Risk Factors) Most Closely Associated With Crime

9. The Challenge How To Identify the Most Significant Risk Factors

10. The Yonkers JCEC Database • Uses Unique IDs to Maintain Confidentiality • Unique IDs Based on System Used for HIV Records • Cross-References Multiple Data Sets

11. The Yonkers JCEC Database • Police Data • School Data • Social Service Data • Census Data

12. Police Data • Juvenile Arrests

13. School Data • Truancy • Suspensions • Serious School Incidents • Special Education Status

14. Social Service Data • Foster Care

15. Census Data • Gender • Age • High Poverty Census Tracts (>20%)

16. The Pyramid of Risk Risk Factor Group Size # Arrested (Per 100, 3 Years) # Arrests (Per 100, 3 Years) Grades 6-8, 20+ Absences AND 3-Day Suspension 41 61 128 Aged 11-13, Arrested in 2003 170 41 49 Grades 1-12, 3-Day Suspension 690 24 38 Grades 7-8, 20+ Absences 709 21 36 Aged 10-14, High Poverty 6,614 7 10 Males Aged 7-15 17,168 5 7 All Youth Aged 7-15 33,893 3 4

17. Recommendations for Providers • Target the Highest Risk-Groups HOW? • Use the Pyramid of Risk

18. Recommendations for Providers 2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS! HOW? • Provide One-On-One Services • Mentoring • Functional Family Therapy • Scatter in Pro-Social Groups

19. Recommendations for Providers 3. Track Arrests (The Ultimate Outcome Measure) HOW? • Preserve Confidentiality • Obtain Parental Consent • Give Program Participant Names to Police • Get Back ONLY Aggregate Number of Arrests

20. Recommendations for Providers 4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline” HOW? • See “Sample Program Outcomes Form”

21. Recommendations for Providers 5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented HOW? • Calculate Yonkers Baseline for Your Group • Compare Your Results to Estimated Baseline • Calculate Estimated Number of Arrests Prevented • Divide Costs By Number of Arrests Prevented

22. Recommendations for Providers 1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups 2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS 3. Track Arrests 4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline” 5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented

23. Recommendations for Funders 1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups 2. Measure % of High-Risk Groups Now Served 3. Make Funded Programs Report Arrest Rate 4. Compare Arrest Rates Across Similar Programs 5. Use Yonkers Data as Estimated Baseline 6. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented 5. Join PD&D’s Proposed Research Project

24. Karl Bertrand, L.M.S.W., President Program Design and Development, LLC 47 Wayside Drive White Plains, NY 10607 (914) 592-1272 KBertrand@programdesign.com www.programdesign.com