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Short Term Landscape Processes & Understanding of Planning

Short Term Landscape Processes & Understanding of Planning. Lecture 4 „Regional Landscape Planning“May 27th, 2005 www.breiling.org/awaji E-mail: breiling@breiling.org. Humans and Space. Awaji Shima Region. Larger Scales. Smaller Scales. Awaji Shima Region. Awaji Shima Region. ~ 600 km²

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Short Term Landscape Processes & Understanding of Planning

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  1. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Short Term Landscape Processes & Understanding of Planning Lecture 4 „Regional Landscape Planning“May 27th, 2005 www.breiling.org/awaji E-mail: breiling@breiling.org

  2. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Humans and Space

  3. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Awaji Shima Region Larger Scales Smaller Scales Awaji Shima Region

  4. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Awaji Shima Region • ~ 600 km² • ~ 150,000 inhabitants • Larger spatial scales • Hyogo ken • Kinki region • Japan • East Asia • Eurasia • World • Smaller spatial scales • Municipalities (gun) • Settlement area (cho) • village (machi) • Places • Private units

  5. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Relation local, regional, global • Region is characterized • By smaller local units • By larger global unit • Regional (local, global) state • (infa-) structure within the region • Regional (local, global) use • Economy • Ecology • Quality of life

  6. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Long-, medium-, short- term processes • Processunderstanding of Landscape • Long term > 100 years steps of change • Medium term < 100 years, > 1 year changes • Short term < 1 year processes

  7. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Long term processes • Long term processes • Geology • Climate • Soil • Water System • Vegetation • Animal Life

  8. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Medium term processes • Political administration (cho, machi, sanchome) • Demographic trends • Land use • Agriculture • Tourism • Roads and trafic infrastructures • Settlement areas

  9. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Short term processes • Energy use • Greenhouse gases • Water use • Waste generation • Human inputs in agriculture • Working hours in agriculture

  10. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Landscape & Time • Landscape is dynamic • Arena for all processes • Landscape changes continuously • State and Use • Longer processes generate the „state“ (Structure Infrastructure) for the „use“ in shorter processes • What is state and what is use depends on our interest • Human Understanding of Landscape Processes • Long term processes are perceived as stable/non dynamic • Medium term processes depend on long term processes, generate (infra-) structure for human beings • Short term processes describe human actions within a year

  11. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Anticipated Processes: Cyclic • Cyclic means that the pattern of change is known and repeated on regular base (can be anticipated) • Decades: harvesting of trees, perhaps climate variations, appearance of Feb. 29th • Years: harvesting of field fruits • Seasons: spring, summer, autumn, winter • Month: salaries • Week: weekdays, weekend • Day: morning, noon, afternoon, evening, night

  12. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Anticipated Processes: Non Cyclic • Non-cyclic where the pattern of change is known: Growth and Decline • Centuries: waves of earthquakes and vulcanos • Decades: • perhaps human induced climate change, • life periods such as childhood, youth, young adult, family start, family peak, career peak, agil pensionist, pensionist, • plant growth states of higher plants, availability of resources • Years: Investments and loans, • Seasons: extreme (summer) heat, extreme (autumn) thyphoons, extreme snow (winter) or floodings etc. • Month: amount of salaries • Week: visitors of touristic spots on weekdays, weekend • Day: the menue in ALPHA cantine

  13. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Non Anticipated Processes: Surprises regarding Natural System • Not experienced before • Not included in planning & management • Climate change • Impacts of climate changes • Directions of climate changes • Acid deposition, forest die-back, fish dying • Chemical time bombs • Colloid chemical compounds and pH change • Manipulated genes?

  14. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Non Anticipated Processes: „Surprises“ regarding Social System • Rural depopulation • Population decrease in developed world • Aged population, perhaps break down of social system • New power of kids as consumers • Several old people to support one kid in shrinking societies

  15. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Planning and Management • Is like riding a bicycle • Foreseen cyclic processes of wheels • Unforeseen but expected disturbances when passing hinders • Surprises are: a jump into the water • Planning and management in a changed context • The road beneath does no longer exist • Learn how to fly or • Learn to swim

  16. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Factors of Influence • Exogenous factors from outside • Endogenous factors from inside • Physical, chemical, biotic stressfactors • Socio-economic political stressfactors Awaji Shima Breiling after Döös 1992

  17. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Consequences for our region “Awaji shima” • There is not a single threat or challenge • But a combination of many factors • Difficult to judge the weight of a single factor • General rules • Local concern can counter exogenous threats • Exogenous threats are enhanced if ignored locally • We cannot foresee the future, surprises inevitable • More planning better than less planning • Surprises become less likely

  18. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes The Planning Process

  19. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Planning • Deals with simplified reality • Is a “model of expected truth” • Assumes a system of influencing factors • Similar to my figure of stressfactors • Neglects everything not considered • Then we start circulation in our system and improve performance to a wanted output (and get perhaps an unwanted output)

  20. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Short Term Processes • Give a current picture of Awaji shima regarding • Energy in agriculture/tourism (Group 1) • Greenhouse gases in agriculture/tourism (Group 2) • Water use in agriculture/tourism (Group 3) • Waste generation and making compost (Group 4) • Land demand of agriculture/tourism (Group 5) • Working hours/occupation in agriculture/tourism (Group 6)

  21. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Changes in Japanese Agriculture: Rice Source: Agricultural Census of Japan

  22. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Changes in Japanese Agriculture Source: Agricultural Census of Japan Cited by : S. Hasegawa, T. Tabuchi (1995). Well Facilitated Paddy Fields in Japan.

  23. Number Households Total Agricultural Mixed Agricultural Non Agricultural No workers 1980 35824 1360 2131 28972 3311 1985 37980 1210 1954 30400 4344 1990 40670 993 1596 32568 5357 1995 43900 935 1379 34464 6902 Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Number of urban households is rapidly increasing Share of Agricultural Households Against Others (in 1000) Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 1998, National Census data

  24. Number Households Total Full time Part time 1960 6057 2078 3979 1965 5665 1219 4446 1970 5342 831 4510 1975 4953 616 4337 1980 4661 623 4038 1985 4376 626 3750 1990 3835 592 3243 1995 2651 428 2224 Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Number of agricultural households decreases Share of Full Time and Part Time Farm Households 1960 to 1995 (in 1000) Source: Japan Statistical Yearbook 1998, Agricultural Census data

  25. Year Agricultural Income Non Agricultural Income Total Share of agricultural income 1965 365 396 761 48% 1970 508 885 1393 36% 1975 1146 2268 3414 34% 1980 952 3563 4515 21% 1985 1066 4437 5503 19% 1990 1163 5438 6601 18% 1995 1442 5453 6895 21% Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Income in agriculture only small portion Table 3 Income Source of Agricultural Households Source: Asahi Shinbun 1999, Agricultural Census data

  26. Farm Occupants in 10.000 total female Share of female t1965 1152 695 60% t1970 1025 628 61% t1975 791 493 62% t1980 697 429 62% t1985 636 388 61% t1990 565 340 60% t1995 490 286 58% Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Agriculture a female profession? Table 4 Occupation in Agriculture (in 10,000)

  27. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Will rural disappear in a non distant future?

  28. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Will there be someone working in fields? • Source: S. Hasegawa, T. Tabuchi (1995). Well Facilitated Paddy Fields in Japan.

  29. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Increase in Machinery Use

  30. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Fertilizer Use in Agriculture Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base

  31. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Energy Input in Agriculture Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base

  32. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Change in Diet Source: G. Ahamer (1995). Global Change Data Base

  33. Regional Landscape Planning: Short Term Processes Conclusion • Structure and Processes change over time • Long term processes provide structure for medium term processes • Medium term processes provide structure for short term processes • Performance of short term processes is relevant for environmental quality • Resource flow determines processes

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