Poverty and inequality in London: What difference will the coalition's social policies make?

1. Poverty and inequality in London: What difference will the coalition's social policies make? Peter Kenway

2. London Poverty Profile 2009 • How can London have highest poverty rate – and where is it? • High rates of poverty and worklessness – but Inner  and Outer  over time • Average rates of attainment for those with lowest grades – but  in Inner and Outer (best region at age 16) • V. high temp. accommodation rates – but Haringey 10X Richmond • Most unequal region so ‘London’ rarely makes sense – but 32 boroughs is too many • Use the five economic sub-regions where possible

3. Five sub-regions

4. Sixteen indicator picture: inner

5. Sixteen indicator picture: outer

6. Recession hit east more than inner JSA, unemployment, mortgage and landlord repossessions

7. Problems of perception • Inner/outer misleads – deepest problems still in inner, concentrated in Inner E • Inner W faces problems e.g. housing, low paid jobs, but not comparable with Inner E • 2010 ‘update’ highlights this: Inner W hit the least; Outer E resembles Inner E; problems e.g. re housing in Outer W. • Inner E more in common with Outer E than Inner W – but East/West also misleads • Inner W home to many national institutions – a bubble in a bubble?

8. Three year child poverty rates/shares How do inner/outer and in-work/out-of-work interact?

9. Accounting for ∆ child poverty rate over time • For inner (outer) in terms of in- and non-work poverty rates: • change in in-work rate [∆rw.sw] + • change in non-work rate [∆rn.(1-sw)] + • effect of change in work share [(r*w-r*n). ∆sw ] • where: rw/rn in/non-work rates; (1-sw) % workless h’holds; * t=2 • For London in terms of inner and outer poverty rates: • change in inner rate [∆Ri.Si] + • change in outer rate [∆Ro.(1-Si)] + • effect of change in inner share [(R*i-R*o). ∆Si ] • where: Ri/Ro inner/outer rates; Si % in inner; * t=2 • (choices about precise form of decomposition)

10. Child poverty over time by inner/outer/all • Two effects dominate (almost cancelling at London level) • fall in inner percentage in workless households • increase in outer in-work poverty rate

11. Effects of the HB cap and 30% LHA limit • Unclear interaction with the inner/outer in-work/out-of-work • £pw: Inner West is outlier; Inner East in the pack • % affected: all in pack – substantial majority everywhere • Exodus from the Inner West - but no simple exodus to suburbs

12. Conclusions • Even before the coalition’s social policies take effect: • Deepening divide between the two parts of Inner • Outer as a whole becoming more like Inner as a whole – but no less divided? • Hypotheses re coalition policies: • 1. Deepen the changes that have been taking place in Inner and esp. Inner West • 2. Accelerate/initiate change in many parts of Outer • But is this sustainable? • Inner West has second highest number of low paid jobs (2008) of five sub-regions – 22% of the total • Time and cost of public transport for travel to low paid jobs will grow in importance