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Alle radici del declino italiano: il persistere del dualismo

Alle radici del declino italiano: il persistere del dualismo. Roma , 18 aprile 2013. Stefano Prezioso. Italian dualism : Centre-North and Mezzogiorno

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Alle radici del declino italiano: il persistere del dualismo

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  1. Alle radici del declino italiano: il persistere del dualismo Roma, 18 aprile 2013 Stefano Prezioso

  2. Italiandualism: Centre-North and Mezzogiorno What do wemeanforMezzogiorno? Wemean the problemsof the Italiansouth-eightregions, that are Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia, Campania, Basilicata, Calabria, includingSardinia and Sicily. Thismeansthat more than 40% ofItalianterritory and more than a thirdof Italy’s population: 123 thousandsquarekilometers on total 301,336; 20 million 913 thousandinhabitants on more than 60 million (34,5%).

  3. La rottura del processo di convergenza • La relazione tra disuguaglianza e crescita • L’inadeguatezza delle politiche di sviluppo

  4. ECONOMIC DUALISM: GDP GAP PER INHABITANT The MEZZOGIORNO’S GDP IS ABOUT 58,4% THAN THAT OF the CENTRE-NORTH

  5. GDP per capite (Ue=100) Regions Convergence and regions Competitiveness in some European countries

  6. Deviazione standard del pil pro capite nei paesi di sola convergenza e di sola competitività nella UE a 27

  7. Deviazione standard del pil pro capite regionale nelle economie “dualistiche” della UE a 27

  8. Pil pro capite e tasso di crescita paesi europei “dualistici”

  9. GDP (Annualaveragechanges*, % ) *Calculated on chained values– base year 2000

  10. Table 1. Recovery from GDP crisis (a) (a) At constant prices, chained values– base year 2000

  11. JOB EMERGENCY AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS: THE YOUNG AND WOMEN CONDITION “The crisis has shown the effects of a long phase in which public policies seemed to have missed their target of reducing inequality of incomes and opportunities among citiziens, which is central to activate stable growth processes. In light of this, it is possible to read the economic and social recession of the mezzogiorno, the Italian south. But we can also draw important policy implications in this particular moment of ever-tightening fiscal policy measures.”

  12. JOB EMERGENCY: HALF MILLION OF JOB LOSSES First quarter 2008 – First quarter 2012 -536,000 -366,000 to the SOUTH (-5.5%) -169,000 to the NORTH (-1.0%) 27% employed 69% job losses 73% employed 31% job losses

  13. JOB EMERGENCY: YOUNG PEOPLE CONDITION Employment change by age categories (First quarter 2008 – First quarter 2012)

  14. Employment Rate (aged 15-34 years) * I quarter 2012

  15. ARRESTO NEL PROCESSO DI SVILUPPO E DISEGUAGLIANZA

  16. Le regioni del Mezzogiorno più povere e più disuguali La disuguaglianza dei redditi nelle regioni italiane

  17. Il rischio povertà: le famiglie in bilico Quota dei lavoratori esposti al rischio povertà per settore

  18. Le nuove povertà: anche gli occupati sono sempre più a rischio Quota dei lavoratori esposti al rischio povertà per titolo di studio Quota delle famiglie esposte al rischio povertà per percettori di reddito

  19. CAUSE STRUTTURALI NELL’ARRESTO DEL PROCESSO DI CONVERGENZA

  20. Valueadded per hourworked. Indexnumber 2000=100 in the business sector (a) (a) Industry and service sector

  21. Productivity (a) in the manufacturing from 2000 to 2009, indexnumber 2000=100 (a)Valueaddedcomputed on chainedprices per hourworked

  22. AK MODEL Oneof the mostimportanttheoretical and empiricalframeworkwithineconomicgrowthstudiesis the extended family ofendogenousgrowthmodels, the so-called ‘AK’ model, i.e.: Y = AK [1] In the case weconsiderexplicitly the labour input, the production function (1) can bewrittenas: Y/L = Y/K * K/L [2] Thus, the productivityofaneconomic system can beexpressed in termsofcapital endowment(K/L, or capital intensity) and “efficiency” (Y/K)

  23. Theoretical background -Technical progress function (TPF) byKaldor

  24. ESTIMATED MODEL (ECM) ∆ log(y_h) = a + b ∆ log(k) + c ∆ log(Y) + dLRun(-1) [3] where: y_h:valueadded per hourworked k: capital/labourratio Y: valueadded and the termLrun = log(y_h) – (α + β log(k)) [2] is the long-runtermlinking the productivitygrowthto the rise of capital/labourratio. Thisvariableprovidesanindicationofstructuraldynamicsofan economy, i.e. itindicates the absorptivecapacity and diffusionof a technicalprogessthat can beavailable (movementsof the functiony_h = f(k) up and down of the 45° line).

  25. Cointegrationanalysisbetween log (y_h) and log (k)

  26. ECM equation relative to the hourlyproductivity in the business sector (a) in the Centre-North and Mezzogiorno of Italy (a) Industry and service sector

  27. A graphicalrepresentationof the resultsfromestimated ECM equation y_h Mezzogiorno Centre-North 45° k 1995/96 2001/02

  28. Results The valuelinking the output–Verdooncoefficient–to the (hourly) productivitytakes, in bothmacro-regions, relativelyhighervalues and, mostimportantly, they are quitesimilar. The errorcorrectiontermcomes, in fact, fromresidualsof a long-runrelationshipwithsplines, in Mezzogiorno, both in the constant, and in the Centre-North, and in coefficientsofy_h and k, differentlyfrom the othermacro-region.

  29. Centre-North: the break in the constantis indicative of a competitive shock whichworked on the absolutesizeof the system, butnot on the main relations within the system (2001 is the yearwhere competitive pressurefromabroad show up). Mezzogiorno: the full break shows up between the end ofExtraordinaryMeasure and the beginningof a new Policy (New Programme, 1998): the loss ofpolicy effectiveness in stimulating the accumulationprocess. (Between 1991 and 1995 grossinvestments in the South fell down ofabout 16 billionsofeuros, whichisequalto 1/3 of the levelrecorded in 1991, whichwillnotbereachedanymore).

  30. CAUSE “MICRO” NELL’ARRESTO DEL PROCESSO DI CONVERGENZA

  31. Driversofeconomicgrowth in manufacturing after the euro

  32. Productinnovation/ export. Valuesoffirmpopulation in manufacturing Numberof manufacturing firmsactive in 2007: 513,337 (ISTAT). 2004-2006: the percentageoffirmsreportingproductinnovationisaround11,8%(about 61 thousandfirms). Numberofexportingfirms up to2006: 87,444 (ISTAT), about16.8%of total firms

  33. Accelerare il grado di apertura del Mezzogiorno per rompere l’immobilità del sistema meridionale PERIFERICITA’ INTEGRAZIONE ACCESSIBILITA’ PROMOZIONE DELL’EXPORT INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE ATTRAZIONE DEGLI INVESTIMENTI

  34. INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE DEBOLEZZA STRUTTURALE DELL’EXPORT MERIDIONALE Quota % per settore alla Pavitt

  35. INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE ATTRAZIONE DEGLI INVESTIMENTI DIRETTI ESTERI DISTRIBUZIONE TERRITORIALE

  36. Centre-North (numericallylimitedadjustment) Strategiesbased on more thanone competitive drivers. Amongthem, innovationandinternationalisationdrivers play a crucialrole and are the mosteffective. (In 2001, the macro-region ‘North-West’ isbetterplacedin suchendowments). South (divergence) Causesofintegrationprocesses: «greaterdisparity in regionalgrowthrates, becausewithincreasedfactormobilityregionswilltendtoadjusttoshocksbyadding or sheddingresourcesratherthanbyadding or sheddingindustries» (Krugman, 1999). Chance ofasymmetricshocks

  37. Whathappened in 2009: in frontof a fall in exportsoscillatingamong 20% and 24% in the mainmacro-regions, the output slowdown in manufacturing showedanequalintensity, around 15 percentagepoints. Herewerecallthat, concerning the degreeofopeness on global markets, the South (8%) isaboutone-thirdof the correspondingvalueweobserve in the twomacro-regionsof the North (around 22%). The global market for manufacturing firmslocated in the South ishistoricallyofsmallsize, and itremainedunchanged. Meanwhile the domestic market, the mostcommonly-used market, hasshrunk. Drasticslowdownof the competitive forceof the Mezzogiorno

  38. A restartofmigrationflowscomparabletothatreported in 1950-1960s Changesof residence: Mezzogiorno114,000 40% ofgraduated (scientificsubjects) people Long-raycommuters: Mezzogiorno134,000 Dati 2010

  39. L’INEFFICACIA DELLE POLITICHE

  40. Superiamo i luoghi comuni: Non è vero che la spesa per le politiche di coesione sia enorme e crescente SPESA DELLA P.A. IN CONTO CAPITALE NEL MEZZOGIORNO

  41. Alcuni esempi di carenza nei servizi “ordinari” nel Mezzogiorno • % di famiglie che denunciano irregolarità nella distribuzione dell’Acqua: 21,8% nel Sud, oltre il 30% in Calabria e Sicilia; 9% nel Centro-Nord • Interruzioni servizio elettrico per utente: 78 minuti nel Sud contro 28 min. nel Nord • % anziani con assistenza domiciliare integrata: 1,7% nel Mezzogiorno, 1% in Campania e Calabria contro il 5,6% dell’Emilia, il 5,1% del Veneto. • Solo il 10,2% dei rifiuti al Sud è oggetto di raccolta differenziata contro il 33% del Centro-Nord, oltre il 40% in Trentino, Lombardia, Veneto,

  42. Rimane un enorme problema di qualità della spesa. La quantità è rilevante seppur in deciso calo negli ultimi anni. • Regioni senza adeguate competenze interne cui sono stati affidati troppi poteri, con pochi controlli ed esclusivamente di carattere procedurale; • Incapacità di coordinamento tra Regioni e tra Regioni e Amministrazione centrali soprattutto sui grandi progetti infrastrutturali; • Eccessiva frammentazione degli interventi; • difficoltà nel seguire la tempistica imposta dall’Unione in termini di pesa e conseguente largo uso di progetti sponda

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