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MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW. MARCH 2014. 500-hPa. Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel). CONTENTS. * Tropics - ENSO [Neutral] - MJO * Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice) *Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks * Drought * Selected Weather Events * Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO). I. The Tropics.

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MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

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  1. MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW MARCH 2014 500-hPa Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)

  2. CONTENTS *Tropics -ENSO [Neutral] -MJO *Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice) *Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks *Drought *Selected Weather Events *Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO)

  3. I. The Tropics

  4. LATESTMONTHLYINDICES

  5. LATEST MONTHLY INDICES

  6. 850-hPa Wind H

  7. 850-hPa Wind Recent Westerlies, esp. mid-month

  8. 200-hPa Wind H H H

  9. SST & Anomalies Subsurface

  10. SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region CFSv2 NMME & inputs (6th) CPC/IRI CPC Consolidation

  11. OLR & Anomalies

  12. MJO (March 17, 31 Overviews) • MJO remains active with E.P.* entering Indian Ocean; though indicators are increasingly incoherent due to destructive interference with slowly evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions in western Pacific. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts diverge considerably for next 2 weeks. Some models weaken MJO as it interacts with the low frequency base state, while others indicate a more robust Indian Ocean MJO event. • Statistical models generally favor continued MJO activity. • MJO favors enhanced (suppressed) convection over western & central Indian Ocean (Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during period; also tending to oppose ongoing convection across the west-central Pacific associated with increasing ocean temperatures. *E.P. = Enhanced Phase

  13. 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (5°S-5°N) Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation MJO strengthens Faster propagation speeds – atmo Kelvin waves? Indo-Pacific warm pool region Slower propagation speeds Little propagation? Longitude

  14. Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no additional eastward propagation of the MJO signal.

  15. II. The Extra-Tropics (and Sea Ice)

  16. Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa SLP

  17. Southern Hemisphere SLP 500-hPa

  18. Global Temperatures King Salmon (52F) March 1 (record high)* *Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

  19. Global Precipitation Seattle record: 9.44” (254%); previous: 8.40” (1950)* E.P. = Enhanced Phase ITCZ S.P. MJO E.P. MJO S.P. = Suppressed Phase *Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

  20. Departures clearly related to orography (much more so than PNP) Precipitation Featureless

  21. Hawaiian Rainfall (March 2014) Dry start followed by trade wind strengthening Total PNP (% of normal) + 54 1.9” 3.4” M 4.0” 92 3.8” 160 18.7” ~135 +: 6.46” (March 8-9) Oahu Forest Nat’l Wildlife Refuge Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

  22. Sea Ice Arctic Antarctic *Annual maximum extent on March 21 2014 Arctic max is 5th lowest in record (1978-2014) *Annual minimum extent on February 23 2014 Antarctic min is 4th highest in record (1978-2014) L -2 -1 https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  23. Significant increase in coverage of multi-year ice https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ http://projects.kmi.open.ac.uk/role/moodle/pluginfile.php/712/mod_page/content/1/u116_2_f004i.jpg

  24. III. Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks

  25. IV. Drought

  26. DROUGHT MONITOR March 4 April 1* * Okay, so data cutoff extends 8 hours into April (12z April 1st) !

  27. http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gifhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

  28. Monthly-Average Stream flow for the month of year Soil Moisture Anomaly CPC NLDAS

  29. V. Selected Weather Events

  30. Track of Cyclone Gillian Borneo Sumatra PNG E. Timor March 6-26, 2014 10-min winds: 125 mph 1-min winds: 160 mph Highest Gusts: 180 mph Minimum SLP: 937 hPa Java Bali X Christmas Island Gillian also affected search for missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Gillian_2014_track.png

  31. Gillian “X” Java Approximate location of Christmas Island (10.5S, 105.6E) X http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg/459px-Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg

  32. Track of Cyclone Hellen March 27-April 1, 2014 10-min winds: 145 mph 1-min winds: 155 mph Minimum SLP: 925-hPa Tanzania Mozambique Madagascar http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hellen_2014_track.png

  33. Explosive Deepening of Cyclone Hellen over the Mozambique Channel Symmetrical & Intense CDO (150 miles) Eye: 12 mi http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg/515px-Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg

  34. Hazel Landslide/Oso Mudslide in Washington state March 22, 2014 ACIS {1500 feet long, 4400 feet wide and 30-40 feet deep} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oso_landslide_%28WSP%29.png Washington State Patrol

  35. VI. Outlooks for April & AMJ 2014 & MDO

  36. APRIL TEMP APRIL PRCP AMJ TEMP AMJ PRCP

  37. THE END ??! http://roflmouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/funny-animal-pictures-cute-duckling-scam.jpg

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