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Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos

Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos. Uma introdução quantitativa baseada no International Trade Statistics (WTO) e UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics. Commodities.

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Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos

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  1. Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos Uma introdução quantitativa baseada no International Trade Statistics (WTO) e UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics

  2. Commodities • UNCTAD's analysis of newly released commodity price statistics suggests that 2005 was a pivotal year for commodity prices. There has been an upward trend since 2002 due to increasing demand - mainly in China and India - and to speculation on commodity markets. • In 2005, the UNCTAD commodity index expressed in current US dollars was roughly 12% higher than in 2004, mainly as a result of price hikes in the metal and mineral sectors (+26%). • There are now signs that this increase might be losing pace owing to slower economic growth, the withdrawal of speculative hedge funds and changes in stocking strategies, in particular for metals. • Real dollar prices over the long term: overall commodity prices about one-third lower than the average for 1975-1985.

  3. Trends in trade flows and tariffs • Several trends relating to trade and market access conditions involving developing countries and LDCs could be highlighted. During 1990-2004, the nominal value of exports from developing countries increased more than fivefold. As to LDCs' exports, their nominal value increased by almost 260% over the same period. • Trade among developing countries has equally intensified substantially since the 1990s. In 1990, imports from developing countries directed to developed countries were more than four times those directed to other developing countries. This figure fell to a mere one and a half in 2004. The same trend is also observed for LDCs. • The analysis of the composition of manufactures reveals that the share of high-skill manufactures has almost doubled for developing countries as a whole (from 16.8 % to 32.7%), while it has decreased by one third for LDCs alone (from 3% to 2%).

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