Federal Emergency Management Agency September 19 - 22, 2006

1. West Virginia Urban-Rural EvacuationState Planners Workshop a James W. Spears Cabinet Secretary Joe Manchin III Governor Federal Emergency Management Agency September 19 - 22, 2006

2. Conference Goals • Identify the breadth and scope of the problem • Clarify the regional issues associated with the problem. • Discuss regional strategies and possible solutions to address the problem. • Identify low hanging fruit opportunities to get work done - Collaborate on a integrated regional evacuation plan         - MOU’s between states

3. a

4. Potential for an Uncontrolled Mass Evacuation of the DC Metro Area as a Result of a Terrorist Attack:A Report of Survey FindingsWest Virginia University Project Team:Brian J. Gerber, PhDJoseph R. Scotti, PhDAlan Ducatman, MDRonald Althouse, PhDMark Fischer, MPA

5. Project Focus • Implication of a catastrophic terrorist attack in Washington, DC: Mass evacuation • Public’s potential response

6. Key Research Questions • Will Washington, D.C. metro area residents evacuate following a terrorist attack? • If so, under what scenarios? • If so, where might they go?

7. Key Findings • The public’s perceived risk of terror events is high • Large scale, uncontrolled self-evacuation will occur as a result of a terrorist attack • Mass self-evacuation events are likely to be chaotic: ▪ stated target destinations are highly dispersed ▪ a large proportion of the public state a willingness to leave even absent specific event information

8. Conclusion • Planning for a large scale, chaotic evacuation into rural areas and states proximate to the DC Metro area warrants serious consideration.

9. Study Design • Random-digit dial telephone survey of 800 households in the greater Washington, D.C. area Maryland Counties: • Howard, Montgomery Virginia Counties: • Arlington, Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William West Virginia Counties: • Berkeley, Jefferson, Morgan

10. On September 11th: What Information Sources did a Respondent Use to Track the Event?

11. On September 11th: What Actions did Respondent Take on That Day (any that apply)?

12. Reported Mode of Self-Evacuation, if Evacuating From a Disaster

13. If Evacuating, does Respondent have a Specific Target Destination?

14. Distribution of Reported Target Destinations if Self-Evacuating From a Natural Disaster 1,890,000 1,680,000 770,000 1,260,000

15. Identified Evacuation Target Destinations By State of Residence

16. Terror Events: Perceived Risk Q1: How likely is this event to occur in DC? Q2: How likely is significant injury to you and family from event? Q3: How likely are multiple events?

17. Reported Propensity to Self-Evacuate Presented with three types of terror incident scenarios, respondents who said they were “very” or “somewhat likely” to leave the area immediately:

18. Reported Propensity to Self-Evacuate Distribution of above responses by state: No statistically significant differences between residents of MD, VA, WV

19. Information Sources on Self-Evacuation Decisions What would your most important sources of information be in the aftermath of an event? - 43% - News coverage of event - 43% - Government announcements If there were no local news coverage of the event available, would you stay in place? - 67% - Likely to Stay - 33% - Likely to Leave

20. Inference Given ● the size of the population surrounding the DC area ● the reported propensity to self-evacuate, overwhelmingly by automobile, ● the distribution of target destinations, ● the perceived vulnerability of harm to terror attacks and anticipation of multiples attacks Result: ● A large-scale, chaotic mass self-evacuation should be anticipated

21. Adherence to Shelter-in-Place and Evacuation Directives Shelter in Place Evacuate

22. Within Those Directive Adherence Numbers Likelihood of respondent willingness to adhere to a shelter or evacuation directive – by “very likely” responses:

23. Public Confidence in Evacuation Planning How much confidence do you have that the federal government has adequate evacuation plans in place to deal with a…

24. Conclusion: Summary Observations The survey data indicate: • Residents in the DC area express a relatively high degree of anticipated vulnerability to terror attacks • Residents express a high propensity to self-evacuate and evacuation destinations are likely to be widely distributed geographically • Absent available local information, a large proportion of area residents are likely to evacuate • Residents also express low confidence in governmental evacuation planning on disaster events

25. a James W. Spears Cabinet Secretary Joe Manchin III Governor West Virginia Urban-Rural Evacuation State Planners Workshop WV Urban-Rural Task Force Readiness Planning Overview

26. WV Urban-Rural Task ForceJames W. Spears, Cabinet Secretary Homeland Security SAA WV National Guard Health & Human Services Dept. of Transportation Dept. of Education Dept. of Agriculture Homeland Security & Emergency Management State Law Enforcement

27. Movement Issues • “Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations – The Pentagon and the National Capital Region” • “Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations – New York City – September 11” • “Blue Cascades III, Pacific Northwest Economic Region’s Infrastructure’s Interdependencies Tabletop Exercise”

28. Movement Issues • State and Regional Disaster Airlift (SARDA) - Provide Governor & others with a means to access and utilize aviation resources. - ensure availability of aviation resources in support of survival & recovery ops • Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigational Aids (SCATANA) - civil and military selective and systematic shutdown of certain air navigational aids during emergencies when advisable in the national interest. • Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) - provides for the most effective use of airspace for defense supported activities

29. WVURTF Mission Identify means to: • Fulfill the Two Primary Functions of Government: - Protect Citizens - Maintain Economy • Support Intra-state & Regional Coordination • Establish Resource Readiness • Maintain Strategic Preparedness

30. JITC-East Camp Dawson • Camp Dawson • Memorial Tunnel • Netcentric Operational Coordination Center • JISOTF (Future) Volkstone Industrial Facility – Instrumented Small Unit CQB Joint Combined Interagency Battlestaff Training Facility Netcentric Operational Coordination Center (NOCC) Memorial Tunnel Live, Virtual and Constructive Network St. Albans, WV CBRNE Training and Test Range

31. RSOIRECEPTION – STAGING – ONWARD MOVEMENT - INTEGRATION • Control the Entry Points - Primary/Secondary routes “Support is there if you stay the course” - Information feed and flow (Public Radio, ITS, checkpoints) - KEEP THEM MOVING! Pass-through Movement • Contraflow evacuation - WVDOT Emergency Operation and Personnel Support • Secondary Routing to Support Emergency Operations - Private Airstrips - State Secondary & County Routes

32. a Route Management Issues

33. Route Management Issues • Early Warning • Traffic Control - Choke Points - Breakdowns - Accidents - Flow • Fuel supply • Limited Assets - Personnel - Equipment - Highway Routes - Capacity • Time of Year/Weather/Terrain

34. Regional Issues / Concerns • What are the other state’s planning/doing? • How do we communicate, command & control • Deployment of resources should be maximized for effect (NO state lines…Regional Issue) • R&R for Teams • Families of Responders

35. Is there a need? • Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said, “he has ordered a comprehensive plan for evacuating the region.” • Chertoff said he convened a meeting with officials from as far away as West Virginia in addition to Delaware to focus on drawing up an evacuation plan for the Washington area. …..Washington Post September 11, 2006

36. Where do we go from here? • West Virginia hosted a regional meeting of states of the region to begin a collaborative process. • The State is hosting regional planning meetings to discuss the impact of a mass evacuation on specific areas of the state. • Continue to work together to achieve the prime objectives

37. Contact Information Jimmy Gianato WV Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 304-558-5380 jgianato@wvdmaps.gov