Renewable Resources Development Report

1. Renewable Resources Development Report California Energy Commission Business Meeting November 19, 2003 Ann Peterson Project Manager Technology Systems Division California Energy Commission

2. Legislative Requirements and Report Development Process • SB 1038 reports in support of the state’s RPS • Energy Commission: Comprehensive renewable resources plan • CPUC: Comprehensive transmission plan for renewable electricity generation • SB 1078: 20 percent by 2017 • Energy Action Plan goal: 20 percent by 2010 • Report Development Process Jun 24, 2003 Public workshop Jul 1, 2003 Preliminary Renewable Resources Assessment available Oct 1, 2003 Staff Draft Renewable Resources Development Report (RRDR) available for public comment Nov 7, 2003 Committee Final RRDR Nov 19, 2003 Possible Adoption of RRDR Dec 1, 2003 Submit RRDR to Legislature

3. Renewable Energy: Goals and Potential for Statewide Retail Sales 262,150 GWh/yr* Total electricity generated in California in 2002 was 272,509 GWh/year. 60,980 GWh/yr 55,170 GWh/yr 29,965 GWh/yr Technical Potential 2003 (12%) 20% by 2010 20% by 2017 *In addition, estimated potential for other WECC states is 3.7 million GWh/yr.

4. Online Renewable Energy Facilities in California

5. 30,000 27,260 26,838 24,526 25,000 23,061 25,254 23,883 20,000 21,200 18,445 GWh/year 15,000 12,816 10,000 7,805 5,000 - 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 • Source: California Energy Commission, “1983-2002 California Electricity Generation” Online Renewable Energy Facilities Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Generation in California (1983-2002) in GWh/year California has been a leader in development of renewable energy. Current efforts continue this trend.

6. 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 kW 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2002 2003** 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Grid-Connected PV Capacity Installed in California (Cumulative) PV market has undergone substantial growth in recent years.

7. Maintaining 20% from 2011-2017 20% of Statewide retail sales by 2010 Estimated Energy Additions for Accelerated RPS Estimated Energy Additions for statewide RPS 70,000 2003 Estimated Interim Procurement 60,000 50,000 Estimated 2001 Baseline 40,000 30,000 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 20,000 10,000 Accelerating California’s RPS Accelerating California’s RPS is part of an integrated strategy identified in the Energy Action Plan to maintain fuel diversity in electric generation: • Reduce demand for electricity, especially peak hours • Accelerate development of renewable energy • Replace/repower inefficient gas-fired generation

8. Proposed Renewable Energy Projects in California Needs for 20% by 2010 24,800 GWh/year* Needs for 20% by 2017 30,610 GWh/year* Publicly known proposed projects with location: 26,390 GWh/year *beyond known plans for 2004

9. Source: Renewable Resources Development Report Wind Geothermal Biomass Solar Low High RER study RRDR data California Renewable Technical Potential by Technology 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 GWh/year 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Existing There are significant untapped renewable resources in California.

10. Technical Potential for Renewable Energy in other WECC states There are significant untapped renewable resources in other WECC states as well. Source: Renewable Energy Atlas of the West

11. 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 Cents/kWh 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Wind Class 6 CSP LFG Geothermal - Binary 2005 2008 2010 2017 Estimated Cost Trends for Renewable Energy 2005-2017 Solid Biomass The cost of renewable energy continues to decline.

12. Driving Policy Issues for RPS • Transmission constraints • Adequacy of PGC funds to support RPS • Least cost and best fit • Financing costs for renewable generation • RPS in the “rest of the state”

13. Research on Renewable Energy in California • Wind energy research activities • Harness low-speed resources • Model bird flight paths to avoid mortality of avian species • Biomass research activities • Expand capability to use lower cost fuels • Geothermal research activities • Reduce risk and cost of exploration • Solar research activities • Optimize methods and storage technologies that employ solar to help meet peak demand • Increase operational compatibility • Work closely with transmission system operators to identify and overcome system impacts

14. Conclusions • California has been a leader in development of renewable energy. Current efforts continue this trend. • PV market has seen substantial growth in recent years. • There are plenty of renewable energy resources available to meet the RPS and the accelerated RPS. • There are significant untapped renewable resources in California and other WECC states. • The cost of renewable energy continues to decline. • Key issues to watch include transmission constraints, adequacy of PGC funds, and “rest of state” RPS needs. • Support continued research on renewable energy, including increase operational compatibility and work closely with transmission system operators to identify and overcome system impacts.