What is….. Horizon Scanning?

1. What is….. Horizon Scanning? ESRC Research Methods Festival 2008 St Catherine’s College, Oxford 02 July 2008 Dr Harry Woodroof Leader, Delta (S&T) Scan Horizon Scanning Centre Government Office for Science Department of Innovation, Universities and Skills Bay 250, Kingsgate House, 66 – 74 Victoria St, London. SW1E 6SW +44 (0)203 300 8840 Harry.Woodroof@dius.gsi.gov.uk <http://www.foresight.gov.uk/horizonscanning/>

2. Horizon Scanning Centre smaller projects, entire policy spectrum strategy Prime Minister and Cabinet Professor John Beddington Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science Government Office for Science (GO-Science) The Foresight Programme Foresight projects (large (18 months), science-based) Social Technical Economic Environmental Political

3. HSC Aims (from 10 year S&I investment) – launched March ‘05 • Inform strategic prioritisation across UK Govt • Capability-raising in Govt Depts • Implemented through: • Targeted projects • Training • Strong networks • Future Analysts Network (FAN) Club 30+ projects, 30+ depts., 1000+ in training / networking events, Direct impacts on Govt. Strategy, Policy, Skills, Prioritisation

4. Horizon Scanning is... “…. the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.” (Chief Scientists Advisers Committee, Sep 2004)

5. Horizon scanning is…… beyond a ‘single expected future’ to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources ….resilience and adaptability in strategy

6. It is NOT about: Predicting the future It IS about: Exploring possibilities for the future to ensure that your strategies are robust What horizon scanning is … and isn’t

7. FORESIGHT INSIGHT ACTION (from IFTF) scanning engagement to achieve impact PURPOSES S&T research priorities Strategic change management Strategic prioritisation Policy decisions Risk management Threat identification Range of horizon scanning activity Social Technical Economic Environmental Political Science & Technology Developing issues Implications (so what?) Decisions

8. The evidence-based policy “paradox”: Policy is about solutions for the future But conventional “evidence” is about the past We can project trends forwards… but all trends eventually change The parable of the turkey HS is an approach to resolving the paradox by drawing on tacit knowledge and the wisdom of crowds (diversity is v. important) Nature of horizon scanning

9. Horizon Scanning – Evidential Tools (published Dec 06) www.sigmascan.org Sigma Scan: synthesis of best global futures work • SCAN (everything) Institute for the Future Outsights / Ipsos MORI Delta Scan: cutting-edge perspectives of over 250 S&T experts www.deltascan.org

10. Sigma • scan • Right to live: right to die? • Global courting : the supremacy of international law. • Increase in e-commuting. • UK rules OK : isolationist Britain. • End of public broadcasting. • Ghettoisation of minority populations. • Landfill capacity limits reached. • Economic impact of ageing. • The “rights” of robots. • Corrupting aid flows • …………………. • Delta • (S&T) scan • Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine. • Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement. • Nanowire sensors for DNA testing. • Advent of molecular archaeology. • Computing on the human platform. • Solar: the energy wild-card. • From ink-jet printing to personal fabrication. • Brazil’s expanding tech. sector. • ………………….

11. Summary sentence Supporting analysis (paras) Bullet-points Implications Barriers/inhibitors Early indicators Parallels/precedents Leading institutions Sources : evidence-based Multi-level outputs Range : single sentence to great detail Portal for further research Scan Architecture - linking evidence and analysis

12. HSC “scan of scans” & “expert views” In common with much futures/foresight work, the Scans are designed to challenge current thinking and implicit assumptions. They do not to attempt to predict the future.

13. Sigma Scan “scan of scans” The Sigma Scan is a synthesis of future issues and trends covering the full public policy agenda drawn from a range of sources (including think tanks, academic publications, mainstream media, corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers, government sources, alternative journals, charities/NGOs, blog sites, minority communities, futurists).

14. Adam Smith Institute Arlington Institute Atlantic Monthly Brookings Institution Cato Center for Trade Policy Studies Centre for European Reform Centre for Strategic and International Studies Chatham House Foreign Affairs Hoover Digest Independent Commission on Population and Quality of Life Institut de Recherche en Politiques Publiques Institute for Fiscal Studies British Social Attitudes Survey Centre for Environmental Research, Columbia University e-Living (EC 5FP) Project ESRC Centre for Business Research, Institute of Development Studies Los Angeles Law Review Policy Studies Review Russian Journal, The Science Science and Public Policy World Values Survey Europe 2020 Future of Work Futures Futurist Institute for the Future McKinsey Global Institute MORI Polls Shaping Tomorrow Shell Global Scenarios Siemens Horizons SRI Consulting World Future Society Think tanks Academic publications Mainstream media the top Horizon Scan sources global coverage both ‘traditional’ and ‘unconventional’ Central Intelligence Agency (US) Commonwealth Secretariat Competition Commission DEFRA Baseline Scan DEFRA Forward Look Department for Culture, Media and Sport Department for International Development Department for Work and Pensions Department of Education (US) Department of Health Department of Justice (US) Department of Labor (US) Corporate Foresight Expert/Strategic thinkers Government sources Alternative journals Amnesty International Board of Deputies of British Jews British Council Countryside Alliance International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement Make Poverty History campaign Muslim Council of Britain Oxfam Trade Union Congress World Health Organization World Trade Organization Institute for Public Policy Research Charities/NGOs Blog sites Minority communities Futurologists SIGMA : scan of scans

15. Sigma Scan Provenance Process 1. Overview scan Leading Futures sources scanned for key issues 2. Issues ‘tree’ Range of issues identified from mainstream-marginal. 1. Brainstorming, noting and scoping 2. Sources: review available evidence 3. Drafting within defined text-fields 4. Review and further referencing 3. Issue generation 4. Internal QC Partnership: 3 stages of edit Horizon panel: Issue topics sense-checked and reviewed for gaps 5. ‘Horizon’ review 6. External review & gap filling Stakeholders, end-users and experts: engagement, enrichment & gaps

16. Delta (S&T) Scan “expert views” The Delta (S&T) Scan is an overview of future science and technology issues and trends, with contributions by science and technology experts from the worlds of government, business, academia and communication. Interviews Workshops wiki

17. 2008 refresh : issue selection criteria Gap: is not already covered sufficiently in the Sigma-Delta Scan Relevance: the theme or trend is potentially relevant to a wide range of UK policy stakeholders and departments, or strongly relevant to a smaller number of departments/policymakers. Impact: the theme or trend could have significant impacts on important aspects of UK Government policy. Evidence: the theme or trend is underpinned, at least to some degree, by a critical mass of authoritative, credible evidence. Stimulus: the theme or topic is future-focussed and not merely descriptive of current reality or known variables and reporting. It either describes something new or casts new light on an existing issue.

18. Developing robust and sustainable strategies Analysis of past evidence Where we are now Exploration of uncertainties (horizon scanning) How we get there Analysis of core certainties (modelling, forecasting) Creation of vision (horizon scanning) Where we want to be

19. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ? ? INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROJECT IDENTITY MANAGEMENT Asia Task Force, PBR 05, Instrumental in shaping trade policy & UKTI Strategy, 14 Depts. prioritisation HMT CSR Publication SR Guidance Informs public dialogue MoD strategic trends HSE future of work OSI CSR bid Example Project Impacts 20 perm secs, 13 depts - HMT (International Institutions) FCO/DfID/MoD – cross-dept strategic issues UKTI – comparative advantage OSI International Strategy, BERR – Board strategy DIUS - ?, etc.,… Crosby/HMT – public/private forum Key statement on ID policy architecture [HMT, HO, Industry, LSE, Liberty]

20. Good communications material to achieve impact • Science & academia : “Work not published = Work not done.” • Government : “Work not : • put in front of the right decision-makers; • at the right time; • in a format they can easily understand and use • = Work not done.