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Nia Dowell, Leah Windsor, Jin Wang, Lisa Mintz,

The Evolution of Revolution : Temporal Dynamics of Social Cohesion and C asualties during Syrian Revolution . Nia Dowell, Leah Windsor, Jin Wang, Lisa Mintz, John Myers, David Beaver, Xiangen Hu & Art Graesser Depts . o f Psychology, Political Science,

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Nia Dowell, Leah Windsor, Jin Wang, Lisa Mintz,

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  1. The Evolution of Revolution: Temporal Dynamics of Social Cohesion and Casualties during Syrian Revolution Nia Dowell, Leah Windsor, Jin Wang, Lisa Mintz, John Myers, David Beaver, Xiangen Hu & Art Graesser Depts. of Psychology, Political Science, & Institute for Intelligent Systems, The University of Memphis Goal Temporal Dynamics of Social Cohesion and Casualties Current Results The aim of the present research is to explore the dynamics of social cohesion during the Syria revolution. Specifically, we introduce a novel approach to linguistically capturing social cohesion and explore key questions regarding: The temporal dynamics of social cohesion and social disequilibrium The relationship between International and Leader response & social cohesion • Growth curve analysis was used to investigate the temporal dynamics of social cohesion and casualties during 4 months of the Syrian revolution. • When linear, quadratic, and cubic functional forms are compared for social cohesion, the best fit was provided by the third-order (cubic) orthogonal polynomial curve (AIC = 243.67), and the worst by the linear specification (AIC = 247.75). • Interestingly, we observe a very similar pattern in fatalities over the same 4 months. • Cubic (AIC = 247.81)- best • Linear (AIC = 252.49)- worst • Additionally, the preliminary correlation analyses suggests it may be worth exploring the influence of these varying levels of government responses on social cohesion. Procedure & Social Media Data Social Cohesion following International and Leader Actions Linguistic Methodology Cohesion was measured by using an inverse weighted frequency, content word overlap technique. Group of 5 Tweets Conclusions/Future Directions • From the collective identity perspective, social cohesion facilitates productive collective action– we can imagine that social unrest can either create: • Social disorganization (social disorganization theory) • Cohesive revolutionary ideology (social movement framing theory) • These findings provide support for the latter. Next steps involve exploring this further using more sophisticated, nonlinear modeling approaches and in other social movements. 1 2 3 4 5 As illustrated in the figure below, for each group of 5 tweets, we calculated the cohesion between all possible combinations of tweets. This method yielded 10 cohesion values for each group of tweets, which were then averaged to reflect the social cohesion for that group.

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