UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

1. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian AmazonLow Emissions Pathway to Emerging Economies and its Contribution towards Sustainable DevelopmentWWF Side EventUNFCCC- COP/MOP 1310th December 2007

2. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS This presentation • Overview – the scale of emissions • The Brazilian Amazon • The ARPA Programme • Financial and technical support to Amazon Protected Areas • 50 million hectares • The analysis • Objectives • Methods • Preliminary results • Conclusions and next steps

3. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Energy 16% Agriculture 22% Deforestation 62% Brazil - 4º. Larger Emitter (2000) WRI, 2007

4. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Brazilian Amazon • 330 million hectares (ha) of remaining forest State boundaries

5. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Brazilian Amazon • Lack of governance and contradictory policies • Infra-structure development, including continental integration • Agribusiness growth also over natural habitats • Illegal and unsustainable logging • ‘Land grabbing’ associated with social crimes State boundarie

6. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Protected Areas 48% of the 330 million ha remaining forest are located in protected areas = 23.9 billion tons of C (49% of the total) State boundaries Indigenous lands

7. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Total = 50 million ha ARPA - Amazon Region Protected Areas Programme • Financial and technical support to (Brazilian) Amazon protected areas • Objectives: • Create 37.5 million hectares (ha) of protected areas • Implement 12.5 million ha of protected areas • Launched in 2002 by the Brazilian Government • implemented by the federal and state institutions • with support of GEF and World Bank, KfW and GTZ, WWF-Brasil (on behalf of WWF Network), FUNBIO, amongst others

8. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Protected Areas w/ ARPA Support 31,2 million ha 19% of Amazon protected areas State boundaries Indigenous lands

9. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon Authors Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho Laura Dietzsch Paulo Moutinho Alerson Falieri Hermann Rodrigues The study has not been published yet, the data on this presentation should be consider as prelimanary results

10. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS How we did it? ARPA Areas Threats Reduced Carbon Emissions Carbon Stocks Objective of this Study Evaluate the contribution of ARPA-Supported Protected Areas in lowering Brazilian carbon emissions

11. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Carbon Stock within ARPA Areas 47 billion tons of C in the Amazon 4.5 billion tons of C in ARPA-supported protected areas State boundaries Saatchi et al., 2007

12. Scenario Generating Model Spatiallyexplicit model Simamazonia www.csr.ufmg.br Modeling conservation in the Amazon basin Soares Filho et al., Nature, 2006

13. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Level of Future Threat (2050) State boundaries

14. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Reduced Emissions vs. Carbon Stocks Total for ARPA-supported protected areas Carbon stocks = 4.5 billion tons of C Reduced emissions = 1.8 billion tons of C (2050) Considering carbon and threats, protected areas located in deforestation frontier assume more importance Preliminary results

15. Simulating the potential of protected areas in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions in BAU scenarios (until 2050) 7 billion tons of C 0.6 billion tons of C Preliminary results

16. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS BAU Scenarios and Carbon Emissions (2050) 7.0 7.6 3. BAU Scenario after massive creation of 2003-2007 PA and 2008 ARPA expansion 2. BAU Scenario after massive creation of 2003-2007 PA 1. BAU Scenario (Soares-Filho et al., 2006) Preliminary results

17. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Summarizing • The preliminary results show the potential importance of protected areas and ARPA in reducing carbon emissions (in the Brazilian Amazon) Preliminary results

18. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Next Steps • Evaluate the historical effect of ARPA in the management of protected areas • Study the direct and indirect reduction of emissions in many scenarios • Analyse scenarios of protected areas expansions • Indicate priorities for new protected areas (based on climate changes mitigation and adaptation, besides the current biological diversity guidance)

19. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Protected Areas: Lessons Learned(Brazilian Amazon) • the most important tools for nature conservation • a significant base to the sustainable development but… • not sufficient without broader scale actions and policies • Basket approach • Sustainable community livelihoods • Sustainable forest management • Sustainable agriculture and cattle ranching • Sustainable infra-structure development • immediate impact to slow deforestation • take away the possibility of land speculation • establishment and consolidation of protected areas with local support is key for the long term conservation

20. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS UNFCCC Links • ARPA contributes to long term broad polices and measures in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions - SDPAMS • National Programme • Technology transfer and South—South cooperation • Finance • Governance and participation

21. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS Thank you! WWF-Brasil fvasconcelos@wwf.org.br Karen@wwf.org.br IPAM lauradietzsch@ipam.org.br moutinho@ipam.org.br UFMG britaldo@csr.ufmg.br hermann@csr.ufmg.br alerson@csr.ufmg.br http://www.csr.ufmg.br/simamazonia