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HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE

Explore the alarming HIV/AIDS prevalence data in Tshwane, South Africa, with over 2000 new infections daily and the implications on the economy. Learn about the social factors driving high HIV rates and the uncertain future trends in demographics and economic development from 2001 to 2010.

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HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE

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  1. HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE Prof Carel van Aardt Bureau of Market Research

  2. The situation • One of the highest per capita HIV/AIDS prevalence and infection rates in the world • About 2000+ new infections per day • An estimated 4.7 to 6.5 million South Africans already HIV positive • More than 300000 people died because of AIDS related diseases during 2001. Expected to rise to about 800000+ by 2008

  3. HIV prevalence trends

  4. Why is prevalence so high in S.A.? • Social and family disruption • High mobility and good transport • High poverty and low education levels • High level of STDs, low status of women • Low contraceptive prevalence • Many sexual partners • Culture and risk behavior • Fear of admitting status (denial)

  5. HIV/AIDS lifecycle: 2001-2010

  6. Key uncertainties • HIV/AIDS parameters, progress and epidemiological pattern • Institutional capacity to deal with it • Efficacy of drugs and vaccines • Efficacy of macro-, meso- and micro- responses to HIV/AIDS • Multipliers and mediating variables • Economy, education, business

  7. Black population, 2001

  8. Black population, 2006

  9. Black population, 2011

  10. Black population, 1996 to 2011

  11. Stochastic distribution: Black population

  12. White population, 2001

  13. White population, 2006

  14. White population, 2011

  15. Stochastic distribution: White population

  16. Asian population, 2001

  17. Asian population, 2006

  18. Asian population, 2011

  19. Stochastic distribution: Asian population

  20. Coloured population, 2001

  21. Coloured population, 2006

  22. Coloured population, 2011

  23. Stochastic distribution: Coloured population

  24. Impacts (1) • Demographic – size and structure • Labour supply and demand - outsourcing • Skills availability and skills formation • Income impacts • Expenditure and savings patterns • Health sector – cost and effort • Entrepreneurship • Economic structure and capital intensification

  25. Impacts (2) • Households – negative spiral • Local government income and expenditure • Economy of scale effects • Factor flight and lower GDP per capita • Development and poverty • Priorities of people (medicines vs. education) • Formal sector behavior

  26. Prospects • Substantially less people by 2010 • Loss of a large pool of highly skilled people and entrepreneurs • Strong growth in unemployment and poverty • Decline in business confidence and growth of tax base • Economic growth and development • Social and political instability • Productivity and production

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