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GROWING A BETTER FUTURE FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD

GROWING A BETTER FUTURE FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD. Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change: Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food security and climate change Tom van der Lee. Hunger is on THE rise again.

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GROWING A BETTER FUTURE FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD

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  1. GROWING A BETTER FUTUREFOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change: Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food security and climate change Tom van der Lee

  2. Hunger is on THE rise again • After decades of grindingly slow progress in the fight to eradicate hunger, it has begun to rise again. Dramatically. • Had the trend continued, 413 million fewer people would be hungry today. • Hunger is a bellwether for a deeper malaise driving shocks and fragility: • Depletion of resource base • Gathering climate change • Dysfunctional markets • Dysfunctional finance • Capture of policymaking • Looming energy crisis

  3. A vision for the future

  4. 4 CHALLENGES • Increased demand • Scramble for resources • Climate change • Price volatility

  5. Ecological footprints of food

  6. RESOURCES ARE RUNNING OUT • Arable land per capita has almost halved since 1960 • Demand for water is set to increase 30% by 2030 – placing agriculture on a collision course with industry

  7. LANDGRABBING • The 2008 food price crisis kicked-off the new scramble for land • But it has continued unabated – 2009 saw 22 years worth of investment in SSA in 12 months • But drivers are complex: • Supply side • Genuine development • Security of supply • Financial bet on land • Estimates suggest 80% of investments remain undeveloped

  8. Climate change • Climate change poses a threat to production • A brake on yield growth – sub-Saharan Africa could experience declines in yield of 17-30 per cent by 2080 • More extreme weather events • Farmers dealing with creeping climate change in seasons • Farming threatens the climate • Agriculture accounts for 17-31 per cent of greenhouse gases. • Biggest driver: land use change In Indonesia, every minute palm oilplantationseatone more hectare rainforest

  9. Rising food prices

  10. TOWARDS A NEW PROSPERITY • A new agricultural future • A new ecological future • Improved national and global governance

  11. SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE: THE OPPORTUNITY • Hunger, vulnerability, poverty are concentrated in rural areas • Low smallholder yields are a function of low resource use, not inefficiency • So investing to increase access to resources will increase production and close the yield gap • But it will also build resilience and increase equity

  12. International reform Stop land grabbing End biofuels support Regulate speculation Build food reserves Expand social protection Stop trade-distorting agricultural subsidies

  13. GROWING A BETTER FUTUREFOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change: Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food security and climate change Tom van der Lee

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