Group 4: Wildfire Scientific Investigation

1. Group 4: Wildfire Scientific Investigation BY: Danielle Ruoff Taylor Roney Rennosuke Hankawa Molly Merkert Bethany Weaver Ashley Knapp

2. Testable Question • In Colorado, which of the three most popular tree breeds would burn the fastest and hottest? Blue Spruce, Silver Maple, or Quaking Aspen. • A study for early detection • Help predict path of wildfire by speed and heat • Aim is to make a program to track and predict the behavior • This should be funded for less destruction of environments and earlier evacuation

3. Hypothesis • If a forest fire is started in Colorado, then the heavily populated areas with Blue Spruce trees would produce the most heat compared to some common tree types in Colorado (Refer to the Common Tree Types in Colorado list). This is because the Blue Spruce trees commonly have very low lying branches and range from 70 to 115 feet tall. This allows for surface and crown fires to easily spread between trees. Our preliminary study was on a very small scale so the results are not as accurate as they could be on a larger scale. In the preliminary study, the aspen appeared to burn fast and hotter, but the spruce would be different in a larger study.

4. Supporting Work

5. Proposed Investigation • We can learn behavior of wood with single tree species • In a larger study, study an entire forest with different types of trees • Although preliminary study is singular types; can be bettered by looking at speed and temperature rise of a culmination. • Independent variable: ratio of the species of trees • Dependent variable: temperature of the fire and length of time the fire burns

6. Proposed Investigation cont. • First, gather woods of different species in CO • Most imperative factor is samples from CO and reflect actual population of CO • Maybe random samples • Burn woods in large scale experiment with high temperature thermometers and accurate measuring of time • Using time and temperature as destructibility, categorized in order • This data will be used for a database

7. Proposed Investigation cont. • A meta-analytical investigation • Categorize the forests by percentage of species and a database for destructibility of the fire with factors: heat and time • The Conclusion • In numerical indications • Input being percentage of species and output being heat and speed • Database completed, a program can be completed • Will input the percentage of species and theoretical heat and hypothetical speed forest fire for early detection • Indication for how major the fire can become • Fire services will be able to prioritize • People/businesses are able to evaluate their own dangers for their area in danger

8. Example Data Table (for Experiment)

9. Example Data Table (for Meta-Analysis) Note This data table is still a very rough one. The "Type of Fire" is supposed to be the measure of destruction. However, unlike in an experiment, measuring the temperature of a forest fire while it is occurring is unviable. At the same time, one forest fire will probably have different temperatures in different areas. Thus, the temperature recorded in "Type of Fire" will probably be an estimate. So, unless another quantitative method can be found, this column will remain qualitative, arbitrarily quantitative, and/or estimative. This is why the experiment above is important, for it gives a comparison of the individual species of trees with the percentage presented in the meta-analysis. Also, other possible variables like wind, dryness/humidity, forest density, etc. can be somewhat ruled out by a growing list of forest fires, the "Other Distinguishing Notes" and the experiment providing a basic idea of the expected results.

10. Bibliography • Colorado's Major Tree Species. Colorado State University, n.d. Web. 7 Mar. 2014. <http://csfs.colostate.edu/pages/major-tree-species.html>. • Cottrell, William H., Jr. The Book of Fire. Missoula: Mountain Press, 2004. Print. • Firewood Ratings. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Feb. 2014. <http://mb-soft.com/juca/print/firewood.html>.