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Demographic Trends and Characteristics in Texas: A Comprehensive Analysis

This report provides an in-depth examination of the demographic trends and characteristics of Texas, including population growth, racial and ethnic composition, immigration patterns, child well-being, teen birth rates, household income, and educational attainment.

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Demographic Trends and Characteristics in Texas: A Comprehensive Analysis

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  1. Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections for Texas Texas Council on Family-School Engagement Austin, TX July 19, 2018 @TexasDemography

  2. Texas is experiencing significant growth.

  3. Growing States, 2000-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

  4. Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

  5. Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2017 91 counties lost population over the 7year period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

  6. Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

  7. Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

  8. Estimates of percent components of population change, Texas, 2011-2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage population estimates

  9. Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2016-2017

  10. Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2016-2017 *Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2017 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

  11. Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and From Texas and Other States, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016. ACS Migration Flows, 2015

  12. Texas continues to diversify.

  13. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, • 2000, 2010, and 2017 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2017 Population Estimates

  14. Racial and Ethnic Composition of Texas and Top 10 Most Populous Counties, 2015 12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

  15. Population Pyramids for Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Whites in Texas, 2010

  16. Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS

  17. Unauthorized and Mexican Immigration, 2015

  18. Texas Children Texas is young, but aging.

  19. Estimated Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010 through 2017 Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

  20. Percent White and Non-White by Age Group, Texas, 2000 and 2017 2000 2017

  21. Child Well-Being in Texas • Texas ranked 43rd in latest national rankings of child well-being. • 35th in economic well-being • 1.6 million (22%) Texas children live in poverty. • 32nd in education • 469,000 (58%) of 3 and 4 year-olds not enrolled in school, with Hispanics having the highest rate (63%) (ACS 2012-2016) • 47th in family and community • Nearly 2.5 million (35%) Texas children live in single-parent families. • 41st in health • 671,000 (9%) Texas children are uninsured. Tied for second lowest child health insurance rate in the country. Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book

  22. Child Well-Being in Texas • 2.4 million (34%) Texas children live in immigrant families • 90% of these children are U.S. citizens • 2.07 million (28%) Texas children live in families receiving public assistance Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2018 Kids Count Data Book

  23. Teen (ages 15 to 19 years) Birth Rates, U.S. and Top 15 States, 2016 2016 # of Teen Births 29,765 Change in Teen Birth Rate From 2015 -10% From peak year, 1991 -60% Repeat Teen Births Number 5,748 Percent 19% # of Teen Births by Race/Ethnicity NH White 6,007 NH Black 3,825 Hispanic 19,604 Asian/Pacific Islander 187 2015 Teen Birth Rate by Race/Ethnicity NH White 20.9 NH Black 34.3 Hispanic 47.6 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  24. Median Household Income, Texas Counties, 2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2016 5-Year Estimates

  25. Estimated number of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  26. Percent of children living in poverty and enrolled in Pre-K through 12, Texas Counties, 2011-2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2011-2015

  27. Estimated number of children ages 5-17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Household Language in Limited English Speaking Households: Spanish 84.9% Vietnamese 3.2% Chinese 3.0% Other Indo-European 2.2% Other Asian 1.9% Other languages 1.2% Arabic 1.0% Korean 0.8% French 0.6% Russian 0.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  28. Estimated percent of children ages 5-17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

  29. Education in Texas

  30. Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2007, 2011, and 2016 51.6% 57.8% 48.5% 42.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2007-2016. * Years significantly different p<.05

  31. Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2016

  32. Trends in Latino Education in the U.S. Over the past decade, Hispanic high school dropout rates have dropped. College enrollment among Hispanics is increased. There is still a large disparity between Hispanics and other groups in obtaining a bachelor’s degree. Hispanic college students attend public 2-year schools at higher rates than other groups. Hispanics are less likely than other groups to have student debt. Nearly all Latino youths (89%) believe a college degree is important for getting ahead in life. Source: Pew Research Center, 2016, 5 Facts about Latinos and Education and Between Two Worlds: How Young Latinos Come of Age in America, 2009

  33. Percent of Civilian Labor Force by Occupation, Texas, 2008, 2014 and 2014-2008 Difference Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2008, 2010, 2014`

  34. Economic Indicators, Texas and U.S., 2016 • Unemployment rate • Texas = 5.6% • U.S. = 5.8% • Median Household Income • Texas = $56,565 • U.S. = $57,617 • Median Family Income • Texas = $67,025 • U.S. = 71,062 • Median earnings for males working full time • Texas = $47,351 • U.S. = $50,586 • Median earnings for females working full time • Texas = $37,576 • U.S. = $40,626 • Poverty rate • Texas = 15.6% • U.S. = 14.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

  35. Population Projections

  36. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2020 Source: Texas DemographicCenter 2014 Population Projections

  37. Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections

  38. Projected change in total population aged 0-18 years, Texas counties, 2010-2030 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.

  39. Projected percent change in total population aged 0-18 years, Texas counties, 2010-2030 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.

  40. Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections

  41. Projected Percent of Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Source: Texas Demographic Center 2014 Population Projections

  42. In Summary Texas is growing fast and by a lot, 50% from natural increase. Urban core growing the most and suburban ring counties growing the fastest. Many rural counties continue to lose population. Population growth driven by younger Latinos. Some improvements have been made, but there is still room for improvement in indicators of child well-being in Texas. Substantial divide between Hispanics and other race/ethnic groups in socio-economic characteristics. Trends in educational attainment suggest increasing percent of labor force aged population has post-secondary education. Demographic characteristics of Texas associated with hard to count indicators critical to a complete count in 2020.

  43. Office: (512) 936-3542 Lila.Valencia@utsa.edu demographics.texas.gov Lila Valencia, Ph.D. @TexasDemography

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