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Climate Change and Malaysia

Climate Change and Malaysia. Numerical Weather Prediction Division Malaysian Meteorological Department. Global Warming. Figure 1 : Global Averaged Surface Temperature (IPCC AR4 WG1: Physical Science Basis).

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Climate Change and Malaysia

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  1. Climate Change and Malaysia Numerical Weather Prediction Division Malaysian Meteorological Department

  2. Global Warming

  3. Figure 1: Global Averaged Surface Temperature (IPCC AR4 WG1: Physical Science Basis) • Twelve of the thirteen years in the period (1995-2007) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the observation record • Global temperatures have risen by about 0.74 ºC since the beginning of the 20th century

  4. What causes weather & climate? INSOLATION [INcomingSOLAR radiATION Differential heating of the earth’s surface

  5. Natural Causes of Climate Variation

  6. Milankovitch Cycles • Variation in Internal Atmospheric Cycles (El Nino Northern Atlantic Oscillation Indian Ocean dipole etc) • Variation in Oceanic Circulations • Volcanic Eruptions

  7. Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Variation

  8. Anthropogenic Activities • Emissions of greenhouse gases & aerosols • Change in land-use • Deforestation

  9. Malaysia: Present Climate

  10. WEST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUALPRECIPITATION) LANGKAWI PETALING JAYA BUTTERWORTH SUBANG

  11. EAST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION) KOTA BARU KUANTAN MERSING KUALA TRENGGANU

  12. EAST MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION) KOTA KINABALU KUCHING SANDAKAN MIRI

  13. WEST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE) BUTTERWORTH KOTA BARU PETALING JAYA KUANTAN

  14. EAST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE) KUCHING KOTA KINABALU SANDAKAN MIRI

  15. 1997 1977 1982 1991 1987 1972

  16. Global Climate Simulations

  17. Different Emission Scenarios

  18. Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039 (left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)

  19. Annual Rainfall Changes (%): Nine GCMs Ensemble Based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection, Temperature Increase for Peninsular Malaysia ~ 2.8°C East Malaysia ~ 2.6 °C Rainfall Variation (%) for Malaysia based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection

  20. Regional Climate Simulations • Global Circulation Models (GCM) lack regional detail that impact assessment on climate change require. • A Regional Climate Model (RCM) adds small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. Coarse resolution information from a GCM is used to develop temporally and spatially fine scale information. • In the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is being used.

  21. Orographic Resolution PRECIS resolution 0.44° x 0.44° HadCM3 resolution 2.5° x 3.75°

  22. PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations

  23. PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990) Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature

  24. MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

  25. Simulation of Average Annual Surface Temperature for Malaysia using PRECIS • 5 year running averages used

  26. MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

  27. Simulation of Average Annual Rainfall for Malaysia using PRECIS • 5 year running averages used

  28. 1.3 °C 1.9°C3.1°C 1.0°C 1.7°C2.8°C 1.1°C 1.7°C2.9°C 1.2°C 1.9°C3.0°C 1.2°C 2.0°C3.4°C 1.5°C 2.0°C3.2°C 1.4°C1.9°C3.2°C 1.4°C 2.0°C3.8°C -11.3 6.411.9 -17.5 –12.8 –3.6 -18.7 -6.0 4.1 -8.9 –1.2 0.3 -10.2 2.314.1 -14.6 -0.2 15.2 -9.1 –1.36.2 Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990 - 1999 Annual Mean Rainfall Anomaly (%) Relative to 1990 – 1999 2020 - 2029 2050 - 2059 2090 - 2099

  29. Thank You

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