NATO TO AFGHAN RIP / TOA FOR AFGHANISTAN “THE ROAD AHEAD”

1. NATO TO AFGHAN RIP / TOA FOR AFGHANISTAN“THE ROAD AHEAD” 2001-2014

2. Overview • Old Afghanistan = lawless Hobbesian nightmare • Middle Afghanistan = we’re making progress • New Afghanistan = crack open some non-alcoholic brewskis, easy-peasy 2014 2001-2002 2002-2013

3. RC West: “How the West was Won” • Iranians helped covertly in 2001 – bringing down Sunni Taliban / Al Qaeda in both our best interests • Militias both the source of security and long-term concern • Non-profits, Italians, 82nd Airborne have totally secured area • Area very barren – plant more trees • Long-term read-ahead: ethnically and politically homogenous regions with reliable borders are safer places in which to conduct COIN

4. RC North: “Mission Accomplished” • Empower Northern Alliance • Pashtuns and criminals were the problem • Most of population “out of country” from 1996-2001 • Tajikistan is a country • Germans report 100% decrease in “partisan attacks on supply lines” during operations • Odd shape of RC will make drawing images an ongoing struggle for overworked staff officers – feel free to use this image

5. RC South: Keep Calm and Etc. • British, Canadians, Army Infantry, and after 2008 the Marines. Just a matter of time before we completed our successful pacification / victory over Pashtun hearts & minds. • Greatest asset: very positive alliances with Afghan Army and Police formations. Greatest hindrance: very real hatred of all “ISAF” forces, including Afghan Army and Police, by entire Pashtun population. • Stay out of Argendab valley. • GREAT opium, but the best hash – that hydroponic shit – comes from Parwan, in the East.

6. RC East: “Vini, Vidi, Vici” • Lessons learned from some of the most elite units in the military – Delta, SF, Rangers, 173rd Airborne – include “you can only patrol dismounted in the mountains,” “watch for ambushes in the mountains,” and “stay out of the mountains” • Village interactions can be confusing. It turns out when a village elder says that you have “gawandai” or “neighbor” status, it doesn’t actually mean anything • Years of exploitation from Russians, Taliban, Militias, and Toxic Leaders in the Army looking for medals or quick OER bullets have made the population very chary of cooperating with anyone • Giant Battalion-level operations and COP-building campaigns that tie up resources always sound like a good idea on paper, but never accomplish anything useful

7. RC Capital: “Where Washington Wannabe Elites Come to Meet and Avoid Financial Defeat” • Top three threats to the mission by frequency of threat and loss of life (life represented by real human work-hours / tax dollars): (1) contractors / consultants (2) Suicide bombers / suicide attackers (3) the corruption of you, our Afghan partners • How many contractors does it take to screw in a light bulb? • Progress in this area is impossible to deny, but a sadly deceptive meter for Afghanistan as a whole to those diplomats and politicians who fly in with the purpose of burnishing their reputations • Be wary of any interpreters hired from Kabul to translate pashto anywhere outside Kabul • Toxic Leadership – how narcissistic leadership can look so attractive when viewed from above

8. Keys to Victory, or “Every Village Twice” • Obeying (or disobeying) the confusing paradoxes of COIN • Pursuing a ruthless campaign of CT or Counter-Terror (will be more difficult when we leave, and people from Brooklyn, NY and John McCain label the Taliban and Haqqani “rebels”) • Visiting every village in your AO at least twice • Gawandai status • White border flag meetings with the PAKMIL • Three cups of tea • Link diagrams • ABOVE ALL: RED-AMBER-GREEN TRACKERS

9. Goodbye and Happy Gotterdammerung! Good luck from your friends the Americans! We hope you enjoyed working with us as much as we enjoyed working with you. Great job everyone!