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Latest IPCC Findings

Latest IPCC Findings. Tackling climate change is a “pro-growth strategy” Showed that the costs of action to reduce emissions now will be 1% per year or less, whereas the damage costs of business as usual are likely to be in the order of 5 to 20 % of global GDP.

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Latest IPCC Findings

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  1. Latest IPCC Findings

  2. Tackling climate change is a “pro-growth strategy” Showed that the costs of action to reduce emissions now will be 1% per year or less, whereas the damage costs of business as usual are likely to be in the order of 5 to 20 % of global GDP. London’s financial services sector bears the brunt of impacts wherever they occur in the world. 2005 saw weather-related catastrophe losses total almost $80 Billion worldwide, and over 99% of all catastrophic losses were due to weather–related events. Stern review and Economics

  3. Carbon Markets IFSL/UKTI 2007

  4. European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s 2060s observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2040s 2003 Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C

  5. Hot in the city • 600 people died in the August 2003 heatwave • London had highest numbers of deaths for any UK region • London’s heat island means inner London can be up to 9°C warmer than the greenbelt • Further development may intensity the heat island effect

  6. How is London vulnerable to CC ?

  7. Domestic 38% Ground Based Transport 22% 7% 33% Industrial Commercial and public sector 44 mt CO2 Current CO2 emissions from London

  8. Emissions Map – Total CO2 (2003)

  9. Energy Strategy Objectives • Reduce London’s contribution to climate change, by minimising emissions of carbon dioxide from all sectors (commercial, domestic, industrial and transport) through energy efficiency, combined heat and power, renewable energy and hydrogen; • Help to eradicate fuel poverty, by giving Londoners, particularly the most vulnerable groups, access to affordable warmth; • Contribute to London’s economy, by increasing job opportunities and innovation in delivering sustainable energy, and improving London’s housing and other building stock.

  10. Mayor’s Climate Change Action Plan • Four new programmes • Green Homes • Green Companies • Green Transport • Green Energy Supply • Plus action on GLA own activities and on new build • An action-based, funded programme to tackle climate change

  11. Today Profile of national targets and aspirations (against 1990) 50 45.1m 44.3m Proposed London reductions to achieve 450ppm stabilisation 40 20% 15% 25% 10 year target (2016)= 20% 30 30% Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2) 20 Target for London = 60% 60% (vs 2000) 10 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Required CO2 reductions 600 million tonnes CO2 to 2025

  12. Use Less (Be Lean) Supply Energy Efficiently (Be Clean) Use Renewable Energy (Be Green) Energy Hierarchy

  13. Prioritising decentralised energy generation and renewables • Design to minimise CO2emissions from the outset • Maximise passive design and integration with CCHP/CHP • All major new developments should establish or connect to a local combined cooling, heat and power network • Minimise need for active cooling systems • Incentivise new technologies, as an alternative to fossil fuels • Further Alterations proposals - developments to achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of 20% from onsite renewable energy generation

  14. Further Alterations to the London Plan Proposed new policy: • Boroughs should ensure that all LDFs identify and safeguard existing heat and cooling networks and maximise the opportunities for providing new networks that are supplied by decentralised energy. Boroughs should ensure that all new development is designed to connect to the heating and cooling network. The Mayor will and boroughs should work in partnership to identify network opportunities, to ensure the delivery of these networks and to maximise the potential for existing developments to connect to them. Supporting text: • This area wide approach should provide more market certainty for Energy Services Companies (ESCo) as it should remove some of the risk of developments not being designed to connect to decentralised energy. The scale of opportunity for delivery may also increase competition between ESCos and encourage the creation of small and medium size ESCos to deal with the different scales of development.

  15. Main Panel Recommendations on Climate Change • Overwhelming support for Mayor’s approach • New policy on Living roofs and walls • New policy on provision of heating and cooling networks • Clarification on SPG on Renewable energy and investigation of strategic fund • Review of SPG on Sustainable design and construction and standards in relation to Code for Sustainable Homes

  16. Panel recommendations (2) • Adaptation policy – add minimising water use and green infrastructure • Reference to role of soft landscaping in front gardens • Standard for water usage in homes reduced to 105 litres/person/day for consistency with level 3 of Code

  17. Overall Savings – Existing London Plan Overall CO2 savings in tonnes/year from energy efficiency (EE), CHP/CCHP and Renewable Energy measures (113 developments) CO2 emissions in tonnes/year from 113 developments with energy statements

  18. Cumulative CO2 savings over time (113 developments)

  19. Sustainable Design and Construction SPG: Published May 2006 and includes guidance how to approach community heating, CHP and CCHP in planning applications. London Renewables Toolkit: Published in September 2005 to provide technical support to GLA planners, London borough planners and applicants on incorporating renewable energy technologies in line with the Mayor’s London Plan policies. Supporting publications http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/environment/energy/docs/renewables_toolkit.pdf

  20. broad estimate is that only 40% of the heat generated in the combustion process in grid power stations is used in the generation of electricity Losses in power through transmissions and distribution amount to approximately 9% of demand UK Power Flow Pattern 2006/7

  21. Decentralised energy generation • Powering London into the 21st Century Report1: • High Decentralised Energy Scenario from 2005 to 2025: • 33% Reduction in CO2 Emissions. • 35.5% of London’s Energy Demand. • 15% Reduction in Natural Gas Consumption. • Fuel Flexibility (inc. Renewables). • Local Security of Supply. 1. Greenpeace Powering London into the 21st Century – March 2006

  22. Sources of savings from energy supply Micro-renewables 7% Combined Cooling Heat & Power 31% Changes in National Grid mix 47% 15% Energy from biomass & waste

  23. Barriers to Increased Decentralised Energy • There are serious market barriers which prevent decentralised energy from expandingto meetthe climate change targets required of it. • These are all matters that involve the interface between decentralised energy and the market for large scale, centrally generated electricity production: i)For all but the small schemes (which currently have licence exempt status), the costs and burdens associated with licensable status in respect of electricity supply and distribution; ii)The cost of standby and top – up (imported) electricity to decentralised generators and the price offered by licensed suppliers for exported power; iii)The arrangements with licensed electricity suppliers for the transport of licence exempt electricity between decentralised energy sites; • There is an urgent need for reform of the electricity regulatory and licensing system,so that medium size and larger decentralised energy schemes do not have to participate in a market structure which is not designed for them, but at the same time fully protecting consumers.

  24. Carbon scenarios to 2026 Different technology scenarios costed Hybrid scenario - £8.5 billion required over 20 years Investing in the low carbon future Delivery mechanisms discussed with investment community Substantial investment appetite identified Onward work looking at buying co-operative, rental scheme, project facilitation service & green fund. Investing in London’s Future

  25. New end to end service with three elements: Energy audit Carbon reduction measures Loan for upfront outlay Work with 5 of the world’s major banks and 4 Energy Services Companies $5 billion raised so far C40 Cities Initiative on Commercial and Public Sector Buildings

  26. Carbon Reduction Commitment - Proposal to save emissions totalling 1.2 MtC/year by 2020 from large non energy intensive business and public sector organisations Other consultations arising from Energy White Paper – ongoing Decentralised energy work by OFGEM and others Carbon performance standards – Building Regulations tightening Code for Sustainable Buildings Energy Performance of Buildings Directive Local authority performance indicators What’s on the Horizon?

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