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Paul S. Plummer: - “The Modeling Tradition”

Paul S. Plummer: - “The Modeling Tradition”. Resum é. Bruges modeller korrekt ? G ennemgang af modeller Kritik Diskussion Konklusion. Fordelen ved modeller Simplifikation ( faste rammer) Analyse ( erfaringer ) Taler samme sprog. Brugen af modeller indenfor økonomisk geografi.

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Paul S. Plummer: - “The Modeling Tradition”

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  1. Paul S. Plummer:- “The Modeling Tradition”

  2. Resumé • Bruges modellerkorrekt? • Gennemgangafmodeller • Kritik • Diskussion • Konklusion

  3. Fordelenvedmodeller • Simplifikation ( faste rammer) • Analyse (erfaringer) • Talersamme sprog

  4. Brugenafmodellerindenforøkonomiskgeografi • Isotropic plain/ surface (space) • Economic Base Model • Dynamic Economic Base Model • Regional political Economy

  5. Isotropic Plain/ Surface • Fast lukketkredsløb • Forudsigelighed • Ingenpåvirkningudefra

  6. (Keynesian) Economic base model Yt = Ct + It Y = income C = consumption I = investment - equilibrium forudsætter at Yt= Yt-1

  7. Dynamic Economic Base Model Yt= βYt-1 + It + ε β = andelaf C IperiodenYt-1 (0 < β < 1 ) ε = random error

  8. Regional political Economy • Byggerpå neo- marxistisktankegang • Beslutningertagesafindividetudenfor equilibrium • Handlingsmønstrepåbaggrundaf (økonomisk) klasse • Handelsmønstrereguleresmellemproducentogforbruger (supply/ demand)

  9. Faldgruber: • Irrationellehandlinger • Ukendte “error” • Regionaleforskelle • Individualisering • Shocks

  10. Paralleller • Tilføjelseaf variable ogkonstanter. Ex. ‘Bellona case study’ vs. vestligeverden

  11. Spørgsmål • Diskutérkonsekvenserneaf at modificere en model (DEBM), nåryderligere variable (ε) ernødvendigefor at skabe/ fastholde equilibrium. • Kom med eksemplerpåhvordanforskelligeaktører/ grupper (TNS’er, individet, staten) fårgavnafmodellernesfunktioner? - Haralleligemegetgavnafforudsigelser?

  12. Spørgsmål • Hvemafgørom en handling errationel? • Hvadhar Plummer tilformål med sin kritikafgeografiskmodeller?

  13. “The challenges of research are to confront the limitations of our approach and to explore the possibilities” - Plummer

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