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Advances in Wildfire Emission Forecasting with FireWork System

Learn about the Canadian AQ Forecast System using FireWork for real-time biomass-burning emission predictions and air quality forecasts. Explore its integration with CFFEPS and operational capabilities.

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Advances in Wildfire Emission Forecasting with FireWork System

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  1. New Developments in Wildfire Emission and Dispersion Forecasting with FireWork – The Operational Canadian AQ Forecast System with Near-Real-Time Biomass-Burning Emissions 8th International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research Toronto, Ontario, Canada Jack Chen1, Radenko Pavlovic2, Kerry Anderson3, Rodrigo Munoz-Alpizar2, Hugo Landry2, Michael D. Moran1 1Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada 2Air Quality Modeling Applications Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada 3Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada 2017-01-10

  2. FireWork System https://weather.gc.ca/firework • System runs twice daily (00z/12z) during North American fire season Apr.- Oct. • Near-real-time fire data from Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (based on NOAA/NASA satellite info.) • Hourly emissions (PM, VOC, NOx, NH3, CO, SO2) incorporated into the ECCC Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System • Differences in model results with / without fire emissions represent PM contributions from fire sources • FireWork products • PM2.5/PM10 maps and animations from fire sources • AQHI based on FireWork forecasts • Accumulated PM2.5 impacts over 24h • Total column PM2.5/PM10 • Other specialized products upon request (i.e. special fire activity near urban areas)http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/air/firework Forecasted PM2.5 contribution from wildfire (FireWork product) 2016-05-05 animation

  3. Development of FireWork • FireWork was first developed and demonstrated in 2011 • System ran in experimental mode: 2013-2015 • Paper published in 2015 Pavlovic et al., 2015, J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc., 66, 819-841, DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2016.1158214. (IWAQFR 2011) • It became an official operational product in Apr. 2016 New Development: Improve integration with the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS)

  4. Current FireWorkOperational System AVHRR / MODIS / VIIRS Canadian Wildland Fire Information System CWFIS Hotspot lat. / lon. Fuel type Fuel consumption obs. and forecast meteorology valid at local noon • SMOKE Processor • Uses one diurnal profile to convert emissions into hourly values • Converts VOC, NOx, PM into model species • Merges emissions with other major anthropogenic point sources FEPS (BlueSky) Total Daily Emissions per hotspot for PMs, VOCs, NOx, SO2, CO and NH3 • FireWork runs twice daily • initiated at 00 UTC and 12 UTC AQ model (GEM-MACH)

  5. Limitations / Weaknesses • Coarse temporal resolution – daily vs. hourly • Uniform diurnal profile by local time • Limited interaction between meteorology ↔ fire behavior • Persistence assumption for 48-hr forecast • Briggs approach to model plume injection height • Fixed emission factors by FEPS • Fixed chemical speciation profile

  6. Primary Organic Carbon emissions from wildfire 2016-05-07 (Fort McMurry) 12000 g/sec F00-23 F24-48 FireWork PM2.5 forecast (a grid for Fort McMurry) Vertical Profiles – PM2.5 (for the same grid) 6h 10h 16h 32h

  7. Plume injection Height Kahn et al. GRL v35 (2008) GRL vol. 35 FireWork for 20160504 - all points, hours in model domain

  8. CFFEPS – Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System • Developed by Canadian Forest Service - Natural Resources Canada • Fuel moisture and rate of spread are adjusted following meteorology • Elliptical fire growth model • Emission types by flaming / smoldering / residual • Updated emission factors (PM, NO, NMHC, NH3, CO, CO2, CH4 etc.) by fire type (Urbanski 2014) – extensible to fuel type dependence • Plume injection height based on fire energy thermodynamics

  9. Current Operational System FireWork+CFFEPS System AVHRR / MODIS / VIIRS Canadian Wildland Fire Information System CWFIS Hotspot lat. / lon. Fuel type Fuel consumption obs. and forecast meteorology valid at local noon GEM hourly forecast meteorology • SMOKE Processor • Uses one diurnal profile to convert emissions into hourly values • Converts VOC, NOx, PM into model species • Merges emissions with other major anthropogenic point sources • Post Processing • area (smoldering) vs. point (flaming) • chemical speciation (smoldering vs. flaming) • unit / format conversions etc. • QA and summary / reporting CFFEPS Hourly Emissions Also available: Plumerise parameters Fire energy etc. FEPS (BlueSky) Total Daily Emissions per hotspot for PMs, VOCs, NOx, SO2, CO and NH3 • FireWork runs twice daily • initiated at 00 UTC and 12 UTC AQ model (GEM-MACH) AQ model (GEM-MACH)

  10. FireWork+CFFEPS System AVHRR / MODIS / VIIRS Canadian Wildland Fire Information System CWFIS Hotspot lat. / lon. Fuel type Fuel consumption obs. and forecast meteorology valid at local noon GEM hourly forecast meteorology • Post Processing • area (smoldering) vs. point (flaming) • chemical speciation (smoldering vs. flaming) • unit / format conversions etc. • QA and summary / reporting CFFEPS Hourly Emissions Also available: Plumerise parameters Fire energy etc. • FireWork runs twice daily • initiated at 00 UTC and 12 UTC AQ model (GEM-MACH)

  11. Proof-of-Concept Experiment FireWork_Base Case vs. FireWork+CFFEPS Simulation: 2016-05-01 to 2016-05-10 AB

  12. Emission Differences: FEPS vs. CFFEPS (May 1-10 2016) CO  ~60% PMF  ~45% PMC  ~270%

  13. Preliminary Results Kahn et al. GRL v35 (2008) GRL vol. 35 10h 16h 6h 32h

  14. 10-day Avg. PM2.5 Contributions from Fire FireWork Base Case FireWork CFFEPS May 1-10 2016

  15. PM2.5 Time Series: Fort McMurray (AB) PM2.5 (µg/m3)

  16. PM2.5 Time Series: Fort Chipewyan (AB) (~200km north) PM2.5 (µg/m3)

  17. Summary and Future work • FireWork system has been updated to integrate with the Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS) • Fire emissions vary by forecast hourly meteorology following fire behavior • Fire emission injection height is parameterized by fire thermodynamics • Updated emission factors and chemical speciation profiles • Initial tests show promising results • Continue testing and performance evaluation • Transition to operational implementation • R&D side: influence of fire heat flux on GEM microphysics, update emission factor by fuel type etc.

  18. Thank you!Please also visit FireWork posters by Radenko P. and Rodrigo M.

  19. Fort McKay (AB) (~60km north) PM2.5 (µg/m3)

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