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Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012

Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012. LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist. Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am). Driest Calendar Year on Record for Texas. 2011 Texas Weather Statistics.

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Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012

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  1. Drought Update; What’s in Store for 2012 LCRA Firm Water Customer Meeting January 26, 2011 Bob Rose, LCRA Chief Meteorologist

  2. Wednesday’s Rainfall (thru 10 am)

  3. Driest Calendar Year on Record for Texas

  4. 2011 Texas Weather Statistics • 14.88 inches. Driest calendar year on record! Previous record was 14.99 inches in 1917. • Average Temperature 67.2 degrees. Second hottest year on record. Hottest year was 67.5 degrees set in 1921.

  5. 2011 Weather Records • Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, Victoria had their driest years on record. • Austin, College Station, Midland, San Angelo and Brownsville had their hottest years on record

  6. Rainfall Since Oct. 1st

  7. Departure from Normal Since 10/1

  8. Unusual December Jet Stream Pattern

  9. Current Jet Stream

  10. Typical Patterns Associated with La Niña

  11. October 4, 2011 Drought Monitor Comparison

  12. Now In the Second Year of La Niña January 6, 2011 January 23, 2012

  13. La Nina

  14. Dry Wet

  15. Temperature Precipitation

  16. NWS Spring into Summer Rainfall Outlook

  17. Drought Outlook through April

  18. Rain Needed to End the Drought in 3 Months

  19. Rain Needed to End the Drought in 6 Months

  20. The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

  21. Colorado State Tropical Storm Outlook for 2012 THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance. (14-17 Storms) THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance. (12-15 Storms)

  22. Take Home Points • No clear end in sight to the ongoing drought; it could last well into 2012. • Conditions could easily get worse before seeing any improvement. • Scattered rains will continue winter into early spring but not heavy enough to significantly change the drought. • Intense droughts are hard to break. • Some models trending toward El Nino this fall.

  23. Bob Rose Meteorologist, LCRA bob.rose@lcra.org 512-473-3350

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