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1. Premise. Three Basic Forms of Uncertainty - Level of Change - Process Impacts - Time and Space. 2. 3. Premise. Three Basic Forms of Uncertainty - Level of Change - Process Impacts - Time and Space. 4. Simulated Temperature over the US.

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  1. 1 Premise • Three Basic Forms of Uncertainty - Level of Change - Process Impacts - Time and Space

  2. 2

  3. 3 Premise • Three Basic Forms of Uncertainty - Level of Change - Process Impacts - Time and Space

  4. 4 Simulated Temperature over the US Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

  5. 5 Premise • Three Basic Forms of Uncertainty - Level of Change - Process Impacts - Time and Space

  6. 6 Scale Uncertainty Biome Competition Region Landscape Forest Competition Biome Selection Landscape Dynamics Forest Selection Species Competition ha Tree Species Selection Insect 1/10 ha Disease Week Month Year Decade Century

  7. 7 Global Change Certainty across Southeastern United States Ecosystems: Impacts and Implications Steven McNulty Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service Raleigh, NC

  8. 8 Global change impacts range from the certain to the unknown

  9. 9 Certain change Increased atmospheric CO2

  10. 10

  11. 11 Very Likely Impacts In Southeastern Forests (independent of climate change) Increased Population Increased Fuel loads

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  16. 16 This will lead to… Further forest fragmentation Further restrictions in forest management options Increase Fire Severity and Frequency

  17. 17

  18. 18 Likely Impacts In Southeastern Forests (with and without climate change) Inter-annual precipitation variability

  19. 19 Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) BW 7 Karl et al. 1996

  20. 20 = +119%

  21. 21 = +232%

  22. Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map 22

  23. 23 Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

  24. 24 American beech Iverson et. al GTR NE265

  25. 25 Sugar maple Iverson et. al GTR NE265

  26. 26 Likely Impacts In Southeastern Forests (with and without climate change) Inter-annual precipitation variability Extended growing season and warming

  27. 27

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  29. 29

  30. 30 Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline > 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

  31. 31 Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

  32. 32 Unlikely Impacts In Southeastern Forests (dependent of climate change)

  33. 33 Loblolly pine Iverson et. al GTR NE265

  34. 34 Sweetgum Iverson et. al GTR NE265

  35. 35 Unknown Impacts In Southeastern Forests (dependent of climate change) Increasing CO2 on forest growth Insect and disease impacts Integrated stress impacts

  36. N dep = 10 kg/ha/yr N dep = 10 kg/ha/yr N dep = 10 kg/ha/yr N dep = 10 kg/ha/yr S dep = 10 kg/ha/yr N leaching = 0 Mortality = 0% + 3 yr Drought Stress + insects + 3 yr Drought Stress + insects + 3 yr Drought Stress Critical N > 10 kg Load N leaching = 1 Mortality = 10% N leaching = 25 Mortality = 100% N leaching = 15 Mortality = 75% Critical = 10 kg Load Critical = 8 kg Load Critical < 5 kg Load 36 How a different critical nitrogen load could be determined within the same ecosystem

  37. 37 Conclusions • There is sufficient certainty regarding several areas of global change for assessing probable ecosystem impacts across the southern US during the next 50 years • Other less certain impacts need to be prioritized for future research study based on cost and potential impact • Synergistic impacts will be very difficult, if not impossible to predict

  38. 38 Conclusions (cont.) • Thresholds and positive feedback impacts are poorly understood and could have the greatest potential for catastrophic change • More emphasis should be placed on coping and mitigating those impact which have a high probability of occurrence while time and funding exist to address these issues

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