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Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty

Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty. AVR Kesava Rao and Suhas P Wani. Presented at The Partnership Summit 2012, CII 13 Jan 2012, Hyderabad. Contents. Global warming and climate change Impacts on Agriculture CC Adaptation - ICRISAT’s experience Way forward.

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Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty

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  1. Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture and Poverty AVR Kesava Rao and Suhas P Wani Presented at The Partnership Summit 2012, CII 13 Jan 2012, Hyderabad

  2. Contents • Global warming and climate change • Impacts on Agriculture • CC Adaptation - ICRISAT’s experience • Way forward

  3. Challenges Humanity is Facing in 21st Century Correlations Energy security Food security Central Asia 24 M Sub-Saharan Africa 384 M East Asia and Pacific 334 M (1.8%) (28.7%) (25%) Consequences Trade-off South Asia 596 M (44.5%) Climate change

  4. The poor half billion in South Asia • Fastest growing economy • At a far more advanced stage of development than Sub-Saharan Africa • Yet, home for largest concentration of poor people • Stupendous growth hides deep pockets of poverty • A depressing paradox Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank 2009. Note: Number of people living on less than US$1.25 a day at 2005 international prices. South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. East Asia Pacific includes China.

  5. Warming trends since 1979 show: • Warming everywhere at surface except in eastern Pacific, Southern Ocean and parts of Antarctica Global Warming

  6. India: Warmest Year 2010 • Mean annual temperature of India in 2010 was +0.93°C above the 1961-1990 average • 2010 is the warmest year on record since 1901 • Pre- Monsoon season (March-May) mean temperature was 1.8 °Cabove normal Source: IMD, 2011

  7. India – Rainfall variability Data source: IMD

  8. Natural Catastrophes

  9. The Big Threat A perfect storm: Water scarcity Climate Change Food security Increased vulnerability Loss of biodiversity

  10. Irregularities in water availability

  11. Climate variability at Nemmikal, Nalgonda, AP • After 1978, climate slowly tending towards Arid type, LGP reduced by 15 days • Popular varieties of Maize, Pigeonpea are likely to fail more number of times

  12. Unprecedented rains in AP during 10-11 Jan 2012 Harvested paddy floating in flood water • 0.49 million hectares crops have been affected • Estimated loss is Rs. 7 billion • On 11 Jan, Kavali in Nellore district 169 mm Flood water affects color of chillies Wet Blackgram

  13. Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences

  14. The only Global R&D Organizationfor Semi-Arid Agriculture Mission is to Reduce poverty, hunger, malnutrition and environmental degradation in the dryland tropics

  15. Rainfed Potential Yields and Yield Gaps of Selected Crops in India Legumes Sorghum and pearl millet

  16. Climate Change: ICRISAT’s Hypothesis of Hope

  17. Resilient crops for the poor Short-duration chickpea cultivars that can withstand high temperatures Super-early ICC 96029, 75-80 days Extra-early ICCV 2, 85-90 days Early maturing KAK 2, 90-95 days

  18. ICPH 2671: World’s first pigeonpea hybrid • Developed through cytoplasmic male sterility (CMS) system • Wilt resistant and high yielding with farmers earning 80% higher than those growing traditional varieties

  19. Crop improvement 570 improved varieties developed by ICRISAT and partners, released in 171 countries

  20. Mix of individual and community-based interventions Continuous monitoring and evaluation Use of new science tools Empowerment of community and stakeholders Linked on-station and Off-station A holistic participatory approach Community watersheds Consortium for technical backstopping

  21. Integrated Watershed Management to Build Resilience of Natural Resources and Communities

  22. Chickpea revolution in AP • Kabuli chickpea: increased area 6-fold and production 13-fold in 15 years in Andhra Pradesh, India

  23. Opportunities to bridge yield gaps Bhoochetana Project, Karnataka, Kharif 2010

  24. Equity and Efficiency to Protect Economy and Environment Efficiency Equity Adaptation & Mitigation Strategies Environment Economy

  25. Way forward • Global warming tolerance thresholds not too far, adaptation + mitigation approach crucial • Climate Change has no respect for borders and affects all: Ban-Ki-Moon • Diversification of livelihood options, a good adaptation strategy • Harness potential of IWM through holistic approach to enhance crop productivity by 2-3 folds

  26. Way forward Contd.. • Improved agromet advisory services and weather insurance packages • Enabling policies and institutions for improving access to credit and insurance markets to the rural poor, particularly the women • Agriculture must play a key-role in climate solutions

  27. A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures

  28. Thank you!

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