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Murder in New Orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis

Murder in New Orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis. Dr. Peter Scharf Research Professor Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine Pscharf@tulane.edu 504-710-5625 April 5, 2011. New Orleans had more than 60 murders in the First Quarter of 2011.

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Murder in New Orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis

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  1. Murder in New Orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis Dr. Peter Scharf Research Professor Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine Pscharf@tulane.edu 504-710-5625 April 5, 2011

  2. New Orleans had more than 60 murders in the First Quarter of 2011 This is an increase of 25% from 2010, a year in which New Orleans led the US in per capita murder risks.

  3. A starting thought: “You cannot change what you do not understand“ Dr. Stanley Erickson, NIJ The role of Public Health in Public Policy Discourse and Action-Murder in NOLA

  4. Questions: 1-What is the source of/cure for New Orleans Murders?

  5. Question: 2-What is source of health disparity re: NOLA murders?

  6. Question: 3-What to do?-Public Health based alternatives

  7. II. Source points A brief “History” of murder in New Orleans-1994-2011 'A Police Death Squad-Len Davis Taylor’s Children, The Antoinettes and Mc Nuggets 424 murders(1994) The “Rabbit” Antoinette Franks:

  8. Reforms(1996) Louisiana Pizza Kitchen Murders Pennington March on City Hall Salary increases Saturation COMPSTAT

  9. Reduction in murders following Reforms Murders from 1994-1999 decrease 62% 424 to 161 murders Double national decline in murder rate Dr. Kevin Unter “Melding Police and Policy to : A Study of the New Orleans Police Department”

  10. Losing Focus: 2000-2005 Gradual rise in murder risks through storm (August 2005) TP “Murder” articles (2004) “Caveman” HS Gym Class Murder Broken Windows and 100,000 arrests

  11. The Divide: Hurricane Katrina Preparations Rogue NOPD Officers The Third District Voyage to Baton Rogue Heroes, victims and leadership- Enduring stigma: Glover and Danziger Bridge

  12. The Great Murder Diaspora “Gangs of New Orleans” Scharf: “This is one of the most interesting experiments in crime we’ve ever seen. Without effective courts, corrections, or rehabilitation, we have reduced the crime rate by 100 percent.” B Stupid Harris To Houston and Back-commuter murderers

  13. Meltdown: January 2007 Nagin (Riley) administration Helen Hill Murder March on City Hall, January, 2007 Political Responses

  14. “Daylight” -Mitch Landrieu and Ronnie Serpas and anomaly The Promise of the 2010 Mayor’s Election and Chief Appointment Hard Truths: The Resistant culture of the NOLA murderers NOPD 65 Point Plan Consent Decree blues What’s next?

  15. Realities-Dope Wars: Victim Prior Contacts with Criminal Justice Criminal History? Yes 73.0% No 27.0 % Of those with history? Violent priors 58.2 % Property priors 54.8 % Drug priors 67.8 % Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

  16. Offenders have substantial prior involvement with CJ system Criminal History? Yes 83.3% No 13.7 % Unknown 2.9 % Of those with history: Violent priors 58.8 % Property priors 55.3 % Drug Priors 57.6 % Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

  17. Constraint: Psychological Portrait of Young NOLA Murderers Three years + lagging in Reading Scores Gangs Culture of violence Low problem-solving ability Immature moral reasoning Poor social and conflict-resolution Skills Armed

  18. II . Sources of Disparity City Perspective: The homicide rate in New Orleans is substantially higher than the rate in the nation, comparable-sized cities. The rate of homicide in New Orleans was more than 10 times the national average and more than 4 times the rate for cities of a similar size. Rate increased by 25% in first quarter 2011

  19. Victims: Race and Gender of Victims?-African Americans at risk Gender Male 86.5 %% Female 13.0 % Transgender 0.5 % Race Asian 1.0 % Black 91.5 % Hispanic 2.0 % White 5.0 % Other 0.5 % • Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

  20. African-African American offenders are over-represented, relative to race/gender Gender Male 95.1 % Female 4.9 % Race Asian 1.0 % Black 97.1 % Hispanic 1.0 % White 1.0 % Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

  21. Poverty as source of murder-risk disparity 17.6 % of the New Orleans population live below the poverty line compared to 13.2 % nationally. In New Orleans, 38% of children live in poverty. (17% U.S.). Role of Narco-Economy in many neighborhoods Underground economy and homicide risks Link between poverty and homicide in NOLA Census snapshots, 2011

  22. Education: as source of murder risk disparity Public school students in New Orleans are overwhelmingly poor. 83% of students receive free or reduced lunches. New Orleans overall population is approximately 63% minority, while public school students are nearly 95% minority- primarily African-American. In the RSD-run and RSD charter schools, the majority of students are well below grade level. Link between education and homicide: US Department of Education

  23. Health Status as source of murder risk disparity Injuries Sexual Abuse Girl with one eye FAS Sexuality and murder Untreated learning disabilities Pepsi and “Twinkie Bar “Breakfasts Links between health(SDH) and homicide:

  24. Other theories regarding disparities and race Institutional Racism, in Criminal Justice System(DOJ Civil Rights Division) Differentials in invocation of the Police(Crutchfield)-African Americans in Study Called Police frequently Digital Labeling and the Gulag- electronic job barrier Access to Lawyers, Record Removal Drug Trade Differentials Dueling-urban gladiators

  25. End Result “The drug trade is a virulent part of the NOLA underground economy which has no legitimate civil/criminal justice system for disputes and offenses to be addressed resulting in vigilante justice and death” –Earl Williams, Hollygrove

  26. IV. What to do?-10 public health ideas useful to to reduce homicide risks Preliminary Thoughts: what do we know? High Rate of Homicide Risk High Rate of Disparities in Murder High Social cost:$1,000,000.00 per murder, $2,000,000 .00 per lifelong injury Where do we intervene? Do we know cause? Do we understand prevention measures? Short term vs. longer term Individual vs. community strategies

  27. 1) Develop an Integrated City Plan with Performance Measures Scope of Plan Results Outputs(Activities) Outcomes(Results) Efficiencies(Savings) Example: 50% murder reduction in three years or increase RSD average reading scores by one year by 2014.

  28. 2) Review what worked in other cities Homicides fall in large American cities The long-term trend is particularly striking in the nation's three largest cities —New York Chicago and Los Angeles. Homicides in New York have dropped 79% during the past two decades — from 2,245 in 1990 to 471 in 2009, the last full year measured. Chicago is down 46% during that period, from 850 to 458. Los Angeles is down 68%, from 983 to 312. USA TODAY December 29, 2010

  29. 3) Adopt Evidence Based Violent Crime Control Strategies: ART, MRT, MST, etc. Aggression Replacement Therapy Multi Systemic Therapy Moral Recognition Therapy Etc.

  30. 4) Break down organizational silos and create city- system), not agency strategies A public health strategy requires integration of effort: Successful cities utilized housing, health, schooling, corrections, education as components of an integrated plan. No one component of government is capable of arresting murder risks on their own Silos may be major cause of failure in stemming murder risks

  31. 5) Begin programs targeted at highest risk youth Attempt to break down the gang culture haunting neighborhoods in New Orleans Work to offer educational and vocational alternatives to drug and gang life Work to provide trained mentors and alternative to gang peers.

  32. 6) Hold all agencies accountable for murder reduction related targets Every City Agency needs to develop a component of the integrated city plan and be responsible for its execution. Reduce gaps in education, housing, job access. Success in meeting city milestones needs to be measured by valid performance measures.

  33. 7) Try something new! (with a track record) Maritime Institute New Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago Ceasefire Models Evidence based mentoring strategies New evidenced based youth job training and match initiatives Street gun eradication programs Build upon evidence based findings

  34. 8) Assess to see if what we thought worked actually worked Initiate RCS studies related to murder prevention and response strategies Hone strategies to reduce violent crime based upon data Create prevention systems not programs-Collins(Good to Great) Celebrate and build upon each other’ s successes

  35. 9) Integrate short terms, intermediate and long term crime control strategies Break the drug gangs’ hold on the city with pro-active intelligence led policing Work with marginal participants in gang life to find jobs and recommit to education Build out longer term “children’s zone” educational and vocational opportunities Public Safety and Prevention are both core components of a successful strategy

  36. 10) Failure is not an option Dr. Steven Edwards (Bureau of Justice Assistance) “ I get everything about New Orleans, except for one thing……” “_____ _____ _______” Thank you: your turn

  37. Bibliography Andrews, D., Zinger, I., Hoge, R., Bonta, J., Gendreau, P., Cullen, F. (1990). Does Correctional Treatment Work? A Clinically Relevant and Psychologically Informed Meta-Analysis. Criminology, 28, 369-404. Retrieved from JSTOR database on April 2, 2007. Blumstein, A.. (1995). Violence by Young People: Why the Deadly Nexus. National Institute of Justice Journal, 229, 2-9. Braga, Anthony A. (2008). Pulling Levers Focused Deterrence Strategies and the Prevention of Gun Homicide. Journal of Criminal Justice, Vol. 36, 332-343. on the Community: A Literature Review." Santa Monica CA: RAND Corporation. Geerken,M. and Scharf, P. (2008).Justice Information Systems Performance Measures. Washington, DC: OJP Levitt, S. (2004). Understanding Why Crime fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 163-190. Retrieved February 22, 2007 from JSTOR database. Loeber & Farrington. (1998). Serious and Violent Juvenile Offenders, A report of the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) Workgroup on Violence and Serious Offending Roman, John and Graham Farrell. (2002). "Cost-Benefit Analysis for Crime Prevention: Opportunity Costs, Routine Savings and Crime Externalities." Pp. 53-92 in Evaluation for Crime Prevention, Ed. Nick Tilley. Monsey, N.J.: Willow Tree Press. Rosenfeld, R., Fornango, R., Baumer, E. (2005). Did CEASEFIRE, COMPSTAT, and EXILE Reduce Homicide? Criminology and Public Policy, 4, 419-450. Retrieved February 22, 2007 from EBSCO Database.

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