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Ram Krishnan Department of Education. Capital Outlay FTE. What is FTE (Full-Time Equivalent). An FTE is the unit of measurement employed by the State of Florida to count PK-12 public school student enrollment for the purposes of funding education. FTE and enrollment are not synonymous.
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Ram Krishnan Department of Education Capital Outlay FTE H:\Excel\FTE\Workshop\2009\FEFPA
What is FTE (Full-Time Equivalent) An FTE is the unit of measurement employed by the State of Florida to count PK-12 public school student enrollment for the purposes of funding education. FTE and enrollment are not synonymous. To get a full FTE: Enrolled full-time in school Must be in attendance on survey weeks Those not full-time generate a proportionate fraction of FTE
Relationship of COFTE and FTE Survey 1 (July) COFTE A subset of Surveys 2 & 3 FTE Survey 2 & 3 FTE (Oct & Feb) FTEis sum of Surveys 1-4 Survey 4 (June)
COFTE Includes: • Conversion Charter Schools • Students instructed in a public school facility • Surveys 2 and 3
COFTE Does NOT Include: • Traditional Charter Schools • Hospital / Homebound • McKay Scholarships • DJJ students • Washington Special students • Florida Virtual School students • Students held at ancillary offices like Superintendent’s office
Capital Outlay FTE: Purpose • Used to determine the amount of PECO funds going to each district • These funds are used for • Buildings • Work stations • Support Facilities
Capital Outlay FTE Forecast • 2009-10 COFTE is estimate based on Appropriated FTE • Used to Determine DRS Millage Rates • 2011-20 is the Ten Year Forecast • Used for 5 year plan • Education Facilities Plan • District Facilities Work Plan • Used by Dept of Community Affairs for Growth Management Purposes • Issues dealing with Concurrency
Appropriated FTE • Is based on district forecast • Districts and DOE work together to come up with FTE Forecast that will be used to Appropriate Education Funds if approved by the Public School Education Conference • Is also used as baseline to generate COFTE forecasts
Determine Regular Term FTE • Start with Appropriated FTE • Include FTE for Surveys 2 and 3 • Subtract Survey 1 and Survey 4 • Forecast 10 year Regular Term • Once the Regular Term forecast has been generated, our next step is to Forecast COFTE
COFTE Inputs • COFTE Historical Data (10 years) • 1999-2000 to 2008-09 • Birth Data • Received from BEBR / EDR • 2014-15 onwards is projected birth • Non-Promotions • Removed non-COFTE non-promotions
COFTE Forecast Process Process includes state and district review and input Review by School Districts Non-promotions Formulas are Cohort Survival Models that control for the non-promotion policy of the school district Accept/Appeal Formulas Review of District Appeals by State Estimating Conference FinalForecast
Cohort Models • Calculated By District and By Grade • Based on premise that the best predictor of a grade’s enrollment is the enrollment of the prior grade the year before. Represents effect of net migration
GPRs • A Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) is the ratio of the number of students in a specific grade in one year compared to the number of students in the next grade in the following year. • GPRs are used for both FTE and COFTE forecasting
Unweighted GPR Calculating Unweighted GPR Denominator GPR = Grade Progression Ratio
Weighted GPRs (WGPRs) • WGPRs are a weighted average of single year GPRs. • Averaging Scheme differ for one-year ahead and for long-term forecasts.
The Models and their Weights Year 1 = Most Recent Historical Year
Long Term Weighted GPRs • Consistent • Defendable • Long term – Focus should not be solely on current conditions. Things will change in six years. However, guard against over-optimism.
Long-Term Weighted GPRs Rationale: to conform to accepted forecasting practice that the number of years of input data increases as the forecast horizon increases.
The Forecast May Be Modified By District Using Contextual Judgment
The COFTE Forecast • ((Weighted GPR) * (Prior Grade of Prior Year)) • Add Non-Promotions from Prior Grade of Prior Year • Subtract Non-Promotions from Current Grade of Prior Year
Summary • Entered Inputs – Historical COFTE, Appropriated COFTE Estimate, Births and Non-Promotions • Determined Unweighted GPRs • Used Models to calculate Weighted GPRs and then Long Term Weighted GPRs • Applied contextual judgement to weighted GPRs based on current conditions • Generate the COFTE forecast