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UNDERSTANDING The dynamics of the 2014 Gaza conflict July 30, 2014

UNDERSTANDING The dynamics of the 2014 Gaza conflict July 30, 2014. Current Situation. Ground operations Air Operations Negotiations. Israeli Objectives. Hamas Objectives. Strategy : Israel

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UNDERSTANDING The dynamics of the 2014 Gaza conflict July 30, 2014

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  1. UNDERSTANDING The dynamics of the 2014 Gaza conflictJuly 30, 2014

  2. Current Situation • Ground operations • Air Operations • Negotiations

  3. Israeli Objectives

  4. Hamas Objectives

  5. Strategy: Israel • Use air and ground power to compel Hamas to accept quiet • Damage Palestinianmilitary forces and infrastructure with intense air and limites groundoperations • Conductcasualty sensitive operations • Conduct media campaignto justifyopeartions and limitdamgefromciviliancasualities.

  6. Strategy: Hamas • Conductsustained rocket firinginto the depth of Israel • DisruptIsraelcivilian life/economy, inflict damage • Achieve « image of victory »: attack on Israeltwon, kill large number of soldiers, hostagetaking • PreventanydeepIsraelipenetration of Gaza on the ground • AttriteIsraeliground forces • Conduct media campaign to paintIsrael as agressor, limitIsraelimilitaryactivity, end warwith favorable terms.

  7. The Rocket/Air War (1) • Rocket forces and operations

  8. The Rocket/Air War (2) • Rockets vs IronDome • IronDomecapabilities: engage threat rockets only • IronDome batteries: 10 deployes(3 duringconflict) • Intercepts: 300(in first tendays • Accuracy/eefectiveness: claimed 86% of threat rockets

  9. The Rocket/Air War (3) • Israeli air Campaign • Air vs the rocket system: production, movement, storage, launchers, launchunits. • Air vs the Hamas infrastructure: leadership, C2, weaponsstorage, combat forces, tunnels • Itotalstrikes: 2037 (first 10 days) • Avg per day: 200 plus

  10. The Ground War • Engineering warfare • Tunnels: 60 plus, infiltration, storage, smuggling, communications • IEDs: one of Hamas most important defensivemeasures • Tank vs anti-tank • Close combat: direct fire engagements betweentroop • Infiltration: intoIsrael(5 attemps(), inside Gaza, sigIsraeli KI • Fire Support: used by bothside • Suicide actions: a few

  11. The Media War(1): Israel

  12. The Media War(2): Hamas

  13. LessonsLearned: Israel • Air power not enoughagainsthardenedenemy: Physical and mental • IronDomedoes not completlysolve the rocket problem • Significantciviliancasualitieswilloccurregardless of the measurestaken • Incrementalism in groundopsgives the enemy an advantage • Continuing challenge of urban combat • Tunnels wilbe a venue of combat • Don’tneglect the ground forces

  14. LessonsLearned: Hamas • In a crisis, initiate the fighting • Israelisheavilyconstrained by the civilian population in Gaza • Srocketfiring/mil opscan continue evenunder intense air attack • Media waris crucial • Validation of Hamas theory of combat

  15. Game Changers • IronDome: Negatinghamascapabilities to cause casualities/damage insideIsrael • Hamas close combat capabilities: a significantshockwitheffects • Tunnels System: creatingstrategiceffects • Protection of military infrastructure/forces against IDF • Cross border penetration for strategicpurposes

  16. Near TermDevelopments • Continuednegotiations: • Humanitarianceasefire • Ceasefire to negotiate arrangement • Comprehensive arrangement • Continuedmilitaryoperations. Israel and Hamas • Expandedmilitaryoperations: Israel?

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