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Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE)

This method presents results of a fake forecast test case evaluation using MODE, with geometric and perturbed fake cases, analyzing quantities A and B, percentile of intensity, MET results, centroid distance, and object intensity. Winner announced for geometric cases. Perturbed fake cases range from basic to altered points. Rainfall totals, area ratios, detailed analysis included.

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Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE)

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  1. Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) Fake forecasts

  2. Test case results for MODE • geometric cases • mode quantity A • quantity B • perturbed fake cases • mode quantity A • quantity B • percentile of intensity • median of max • MET – mode_analysis results • centroid distance for matched pairs • percentile intensity for forecast & observed objects

  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Geometric THE WINNER THE WINNER THE WINNER

  4. 1 2 3 4 5 Geometric THE WINNER THE WINNER

  5. 1 2 3 4 5 Geometric THE WINNER

  6. Perturbed fake cases • 3 pts right, 5 pts down • 6 pts right, 10 pts down • 12 pts right, 20 pts down • 24 pts right, 40 pts down • 48 pts right, 80 pts down • 12 pts right, 20 pts down, times 1.5 • 12 pts right, 20 pts down, minus 0.05”

  7. MODE objects

  8. MODE objects

  9. MODE objects

  10. MODE objects

  11. MODE objects

  12. MODE objects

  13. MODE objects

  14. Perturbed Fake

  15. Perturbed Fake

  16. Perturbed Fake cases

  17. Perturbed Fake cases

  18. would like to have… • rainfall total for each object • area ratio defined as fcst area/obs area • not just smaller area/larger area

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